December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Hazey]

Exactly where we want this at this lead time. Once models hone in on the strength of the system it will tick west and plenty of time to make appreciable moves. We watch.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro still has the system and H5 doesn’t look terrible. Not in a bad spot right now. 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

When i made mention of that season yesterday, Your pictures were what came to mind but i didn't remember who it was, That was downright depressing.

I’ll always remember seeing this on 12/17 and then mowing on New Year’s Day.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro still has the system and H5 doesn’t look terrible. Not in a bad spot right now. 

With a Miller A’s I pretty much don’t even start thinking about it until we’re 3 days out.  Great to have something to track early season though!

[weathafella]

First muthufukkas of the season for BOS 

[Layman]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

First muthufukkas of the season for BOS 

I've been able to osmotically pick up on what most terms used on this board mean over time but this one here, I'm still struggling to figure it out.  Can anyone help a brother out?

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 minutes ago, Layman said:

I've been able to osmotically pick up on what most terms used on this board mean over time but this one here, I'm still struggling to figure it out.  Can anyone help a brother out?

muthufukka = mother fucker. 

Just kidding, I've wondered about that one too.

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, Layman said:

I've been able to osmotically pick up on what most terms used on this board mean over time but this one here, I'm still struggling to figure it out.  Can anyone help a brother out?

MOS/MEX snow totals

 

[CoastalWx]

On the GFS MOS you see numerical categories for snow. For instance 0 is no snow, 1 is T-2”, a 2 is 2-4” etc.

Goes all the way to 8. So Jerry one day years ago posted the GFS MOS and said 8 Mothufukkas!! And it’s been a joke since. 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS not quite as good as 00z, but this is workable at D7. 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Beyond that 12/2 threat which is pretty precarious as it is....the pattern looks about as favorable as you can get it considering we're firmly in a La Nina/-PDO regime this season....note the NAO ridging that has retrograded into Greenland from Scandavia....this is what Scott and I were talking about when we wanted to see it come back a couple days ago. It's been showing up again and it's gotten a bit stronger the last 2 runs of the EPS, so hopefully it's not fake. It makes the pattern a lot better when you have even just some weak ridging up there. 

 

This is a 5 day mean

 

.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

ICON also joined the party

This does not add to my confidence

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

The idea of driving through 1000 miles of snow is a bit alarming for next week.

It’ll probably end as about 10 miles of snow 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

As had been mentioned, signal still there for 12/2 12/3, but much more tepid at 12z today.

 

i wouldn’t expect much from that. Need a lot of factors to break right. Temps look marginal 

[Ginx snewx]

Just got a feeling from past events that modeling is underplaying Fridays windex squall potential.  That's some low 500 temps. Add some lift and some streamers and some quick inch or 2 s . Something to watch. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I like the cold look.  Whether that produces anything precip-wise tbd

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

As had been mentioned, signal still there for 12/2 12/3, but much more tepid at 12z today.

 

i wouldn’t expect much from that. Need a lot of factors to break right. Temps look marginal 

Well to be fair Brett…this is 6-7 days away…I’d rather have it look tepid at this stage, than have it show a full blown blizzard bullseye for the area right now.  And it’s gonna oscillate on guidance over the next 3 plus days.  
 

But it’s ok to say the Pattern looking more promising, but we keep expectations in check as you said earlier.  

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just got a feeling from past events that modeling is underplaying Fridays windex squall potential.  That's some low 500 temps. Add some lift and some streamers and some quick inch or 2 s . Something to watch. 

SW winds though. Kind of meh for that.

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Beyond that 12/2 threat which is pretty precarious as it is....the pattern looks about as favorable as you can get it considering we're firmly in a La Nina/-PDO regime this season....note the NAO ridging that has retrograded into Greenland from Scandavia....this is what Scott and I were talking about when we wanted to see it come back a couple days ago. It's been showing up again and it's gotten a bit stronger the last 2 runs of the EPS, so hopefully it's not fake. It makes the pattern a lot better when you have even just some weak ridging up there. 

 

This is a 5 day mean

 

.

yeah, that’s exactly what we want to see.

[kdxken]

This guy says no. Let's block him!

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

SW winds though. Kind of meh for that.

Not very good low level moisture either which is what you want for over achieving WINDEX events. 

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

SW winds though. Kind of meh for that.

Note the wind shift with a substantial change in windex potential.  Not a huge deal but could be some first accumulation 

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

yeah, that’s exactly what we want to see.

EPS likes 12/6 for another threat.

 

Then when you loop the individual member plot beyond 12/6, it's kind of like buckshot from 12/8-12/11 which is the end of the run...that tells me its pretty active if sub-1004 lows are appearing that frequently on the ensemble plot. Hopefully that NAO depiction is real....it's the type of orientation we want too....the retrograding Scandinavian ridge instead of some ugly thing from the Azors....that type of -PNA/-NAO look I've mentioned in the past can be pretty prolific here.  

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not very good low level moisture either which is what you want for over achieving WINDEX events. 

Except not calling for overachiever.