December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

first of all you know for a fact I am not gloom and doom all the time as we have agreed many times on here. Secondly the only guidance I can believe right now is what is being produced as of today - of course with borderline temps shown today can trend colder in coming days. And of course our time is probably coming as seasonal trends begin to favor more frozen solutions as we get deeper into the winter season.

Doesn’t matter what any of us think-it’s what the pattern supports and how any storm evolves. Hopefully we can get an outcome where the S/W can dig and amplify close SE of us and there’s some blocking, so any high pressure isn’t booted east, and the storm will develop offshore and keep winds out of the north. We’ve seen that fast zonal flow either brings what we saw yesterday with suppression, or inland tracks/unfavorable lead up to the storm like early in the week. Could we see a good outcome on 12/13 or later in the month? Definitely and I hope so, but we need pretty significant mid latitude pattern changes to what we have now. Those are just facts and it doesn’t matter much whether the MJO is officially Phase 8 or whatever when other factors override it. 

[EastonSN+]

Plenty of extinct clippers on the guidance. If one digs enough we can get a light event.

[brooklynwx99]

12-13th might be an actual window to watch. nice to see the ridge out west trend taller, which helps shift the trough west as well

[NorthShoreWx]

Driving home around 9PM last night on the LIE in eastern Nassau County we encountered a blizzard of salt.  It continued until we passed the spreader which was salting the highway for some unknown reason.  This was traditional rock salt, not brine.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Driving home around 9PM last night on the LIE in eastern Nassau County we encountered a blizzard of salt.  It continued until we passed the spreader which was salting the highway for some unknown reason.  This was traditional rock salt, not brine.

Has been a common theme in recent years with the heavy road salting especially behind the 18-wheelers.

 

[MANDA]

12Z OP EURO is cranking out some bitter cold for late next week / weekend from the upper Mid-West / Great Lakes then into the Northeast.

Big cold high drops to Iowa/Missouri by next Saturday and pushes east.  OP at face value is storm squashing cold.  We'll see but one thing for sure solidly below normal through mid month at least.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

18 minutes ago, MANDA said:

12Z OP EURO is cranking out some bitter cold for late next week / weekend from the upper Mid-West / Great Lakes then into the Northeast.

Big cold high drops to Iowa/Missouri by next Saturday and pushes east.  OP at face value is storm squashing cold.  We'll see but one thing for sure solidly below normal through mid month at least.

Cold and dry seems about right. 

[Krs4Lfe]

11 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Cold and dry seems about right. 

Yes, this is very reminiscent of the winter weather pattern we had last January and last February, which mainly has suppressed storms that targeted the southern US and areas of the lower Midwest, while most of the rest of the country was cold and dry. With this next push of arctic air there simply isn’t enough of a southern stream to coincide with the arctic air and produce much meaningful snow. Instead, we are stuck with the winter pattern from last year, which is dry, cold, and any snow is usually suppressed. 

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Has been a common theme in recent years with the heavy road salting especially behind the 18-wheelers.

I don't understand why this is the new trend.  We got 1 inch of snow on Tuesday and the roads look like the middle of February after a blizzard.

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I don't understand why this is the new trend.  We got 1 inch of snow on Tuesday and the roads look like the middle of February after a blizzard.

It is honestly obscene.  Was in a mall parking lot last night and i t was LOADED with rock salt.  Almost could not see pavement though it.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Cold and dry seems about right. 

Not with the upcoming pattern coming up. It should amplify more as we move into December. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Not with the upcoming pattern coming up. It should amplify more as we move into December. 

Nice to see more ridging build out west in time. Maybe we can get one of these shortwaves to dig and deliver. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

12-13th might be an actual window to watch. nice to see the ridge out west trend taller, which helps shift the trough west as well

Hopefully that trend continues because there is potential there. 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, MANDA said:

It is honestly obscene.  Was in a mall parking lot last night and i t was LOADED with rock salt.  Almost could not see pavement though it.

It’s also terrible for your car when it messes with the paint. 

[North and West]

I don't understand why this is the new trend.  We got 1 inch of snow on Tuesday and the roads look like the middle of February after a blizzard.

Liability, amplified after the cluster that the states and city had post-November 2018. It had been steadily getting worse, and their slow response to 2018 made them go HAM for everything thereafter.




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[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region received dustings and even coatings from bursts of light snow that fell overnight into the early morning due to pockets of instability. Newark picked up 0.1".

The weekend will end on an unseasonably cool note. A fresh surge of cold air will arrive tomorrow night.

Monday will likely see subfreezing temperatures across much of the region and Tuesday morning could rival or even surpass the cold of December 5th.

The ongoing stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first 10 days of December since at least 2007 (33.4°, 5th coldest December 1-10 since 2000).

The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were:

1. 30.6°, 2002
2. 32.2°, 2003
3. 32.4°, 2000
4. 33.1°, 2005
5. 33.4°, 2007

All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park.

The WPO is forecast to become strongly negative beyond December 10th. That would likely contribute to the December 10-20 period also being colder to perhaps much colder than normal.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around November 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -23.41 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.756 today. 

 

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, North and West said:

Liability, amplified after the cluster that the states and city had post-November 2018. It had been steadily getting worse, and their slow response to 2018 made them go HAM for everything thereafter.




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Totally agree with you.  It all started with every event after November 2018.  I never remember it before that and vividly remember it after that!

100%

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

It is honestly obscene.  Was in a mall parking lot last night and i t was LOADED with rock salt.  Almost could not see pavement though it.

Crazy.  And as mentioned it destroys vehicles.

 

13 minutes ago, North and West said:

Liability, amplified after the cluster that the states and city had post-November 2018. It had been steadily getting worse, and their slow response to 2018 made them go HAM for everything thereafter.


 

Could be.  I don't fully remember how bad the impacts were, but it's silly and wasteful.

[mob1]

We hope and pray

[binbisso]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

We hope and pray

Yup. That's a piece of the pv and nice ridge out west 

[North and West]

Yup. That's a piece of the pv and nice ridge out west 

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[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nice to see more ridging build out west in time. Maybe we can get one of these shortwaves to dig and deliver. 

Agree. People can weenie me as much as they want but what I posted is true. We are going to enter an amplified pattern.

 

I am going to bump the troll posts

[sussexcountyobs]

Mostly clear. 27°

[NEG NAO]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree. People can weenie me as much as they want but what I posted is true. We are going to enter an amplified pattern.

 

I am going to bump the troll posts

what are you going to do with the snowmans weenies ? Lets see if the storm shows up on the 0ZGFS and other models ? Or in 18Z we trust ?

[sussexcountyobs]

Mountain Creek ski resort here in my town in Vernon, opened today. Earliest opening ever.

[the_other_guy]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

So far it has snowed 3 times this winter and we’ve had no accumulation to show for it. Maybe we had some slush on the grass earlier but I was asleep. So three trace days. Pretty bad 

whats pretty bad is thats better than most winter starts over the last decade

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Mountain Creek ski resort here in my town in Vernon, opened today. Earliest opening ever.

It will always be Vernon Valley to me haha

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

Totally agree with you.  It all started with every event after November 2018.  I never remember it before that and vividly remember it after that!

100%

Some say it's liability.  Bulldinkies.  it's all about looking like you are doing something.  Somehow, I don't think road salt and chemicals have gotten any cheaper.  I remember some winters when they would run out...

[sussexcountyobs]

58 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It will always be Vernon Valley to me haha

I'll do one better. We used to call it Traction Park.

[wishcast_hater]

I'll do one better. We used to call it Traction Park.

Class Action Park. Awesome Documentary.


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