December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[wthrmn654]

Side note just got home from work and I found 1 of the 2 great horned owls talking in front of my house.  While a fox is barking somewhere in the woods behind house. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a bit milder with temperatures returning to the lower 40s with another brief push of somewhat cooler air following for Monday. No exceptionally cold or warm weather appears likely for the first week of astronomical winter.

In terms of precipitation, light snow or snow showers are possible on Tuesday. 

The closing week of December could experience periodic warmer and cooler days. It now appears that the cooler anomalies will persist mainly in central and northern New England. 

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° has increased further. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +8.15 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.749 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[North and West]

I’ll be honest, maybe it’s just the pessimistic side of me, but I have 0 confidence in much snow at all this winter. After so many bad winters, I find it plausible that we can have almost a total shutout. I see a strengthening PV coming up after new years, and a -NAO block but no help on pacific side. Long range looks like hot garbage to me, at a time where we are prime for our most snow.  Looks terrible 

Don’t forget to remind friends and loved ones this Wednesday that Santa isn’t real.


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[sussexcountyobs]

Clear. 27.2°