December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[Roger Smith]

Looks like Friday's frontal passage (timed for around 0900h EST) could lead to a few hail or snow showers with rapidly falling temperatures? It would be around 45F before the front goes through and low to mid 30s by afternoon in W-NW winds gusting to 35 or 40 mph. Lots of ups and downs in temperature trends now to end of the month, it looks likely to average near normal so the current large negative anomaly would be essentially cut in half (balanced by a zero anomaly for half a month). But it looks very cold near the end of the current GFS run by NYE-NYD. 

[Krs4Lfe]

54 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Looks like Friday's frontal passage (timed for around 0900h EST) could lead to a few hail or snow showers with rapidly falling temperatures? It would be around 45F before the front goes through and low to mid 30s by afternoon in W-NW winds gusting to 35 or 40 mph. Lots of ups and downs in temperature trends now to end of the month, it looks likely to average near normal so the current large negative anomaly would be essentially cut in half (balanced by a zero anomaly for half a month). But it looks very cold near the end of the current GFS run by NYE-NYD. 

That west coast trough crashing in after Christmas will lead to that massive and near record warm ridge over central US to eventually move towards east coast. Hopefully it’s transient, but Central and south US will really torch Christmas week

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That west coast trough crashing in after Christmas will lead to that massive and near record warm ridge over central US to eventually move towards east coast. Hopefully it’s transient, but Central and south US will really torch Christmas week

Yeh guys keep talking about cold…I really see a lot of up and down

[gravitylover]

How many days was the less than 4" record?

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, Nibor said:

Cold grey wintery day in NYC.

You have a great eye for photography and video like Don. I used to be much more active in photography years ago.

Enjoyed walking around and taking photos in Manhattan. I would shoot rolls of Kodachrome 64 color snd Tri-x 400 black film. There was an old place that rented darkrooms by the hour at 20W 20th street to develop  the black and white. 

It’s much more convent these days with mobile photography and software. 

[IrishRob17]

On 12/14/2025 at 4:02 PM, Rjay said:

Thanks for everything Walt. I meant to post this on December 12th for you.  I had watched this in October of this year.  You are mentioned multiple times.  You did a great job as usual.  Please feel free to join us whenever you feel up to it.  

 

 

That was a good watch, thanks for posting it. 

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You have a great eye for photography and video like Don. I used to be much more active in photography years ago.

Enjoyed walking around and taking photos in Manhattan. I would shoot rolls of Kodachrome 64 color snd Tri-x 400 black film. There was an old place that rented darkrooms by the hour at 20W 20th street to develop  the black and white. 

It’s much more convent these days with mobile photography and software. 

Never too late to get back into it. I still shoot film. 

[SACRUS]

18 / 14 off a low of 15.  Clear and cold with highs right at or just above freezing 20 more hours.   moderation to and above normal overall Wed through Christmas with one or two days colder in between.   Rain Thu overnight into Fri with upwards of an inch.  Colder on Saturday before moderating again on Sunday.  Beyond Christmas and through the end of the month a bit back and forth overall near normal with a storm threat in the 29 - 30 period.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 65 (2021)
NYC: 63 (1971)
LGA: 63 (2021)
JFK: 65 (1971)

Lows: 

EWR: 10 (1942)
NYC: 7 (1876)
LGA: 13 (1951)
JFK: 15 (1961)

Historical:

1811: The area around New Madrid, MO was rocked by a powerful earthquake estimated at a magnitude 8.0 or greater on the Richter Scale. It was the first in a series of tremors during the winter of 1811-1812 that would become known as the worst series of earthquakes in U.S. history at this time. For a time the Mississippi River actually ran backwards. Church bells as far away as Charleston, SC and Washington, DC were rung by the tremors, which were felt over a land area of almost one million square miles.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1835 - New England experienced one of their coldest days of record. At noon on that bitterly cold Wednesday the mercury stood at four degrees below at Boston, 15 degrees below at Norfolk CT, and 17 degrees below at Hanover NH. The temperature at Boston was 12 degrees below zero by sunset. Gale force winds accompanied the severe cold, and that night a great New York City fire destroyed much of the financial district. (David Ludlum)

1890: A big snowstorm began over Pittsburgh, PA on this day and continued into the 17th. 23.9 inches of snow fell in 24 hours, their greatest 24 hour snowfall on record for the city. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1896: Violent northeast gales and snow hit the Boston, Massachusetts area. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1917: An ice jam closed the Ohio River between Warsaw KY and Rising Sun IN. The thirty foot high ice jam held for 58 days, and backed up the river a distance of 100 miles.(David Ludlum)

1917 - An ice jam closed the Ohio River between Warsaw, KY, and Rising Sun, IN. The thirty foot high ice jam held for 58 days, and backed up the river a distance of 100 miles. (David Ludlum)

1941: The U.S. Weather Bureau suspended nationwide weather reports as a result of the attack on Pearl Harbor. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1945: Lake effect snow squalls buried Buffalo, NY under 24.3 inches of snow in 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1965: The latest first  measurable snowfall in Chicago was recorded on this date in 1965. Snow Trivia for Chicago - NWS

1973: Central Connecticut was crippled by a major ice storm, which knocked out power for days and downed more trees than the New England Hurricane of 1938. Boston, MA had their latest seasonal recorded trace of snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1987 - A Pacific storm battered the coast of California with rain and high winds, and dumped heavy snow on the mountains of California. Winds along the coast gusted to 70 mph at Point Arguello, and winds in the Tehachapi Mountains of southern California gusted to 100 mph at Wheeler Ridge. Snowfall totals ranged up to 24 inches at Mammoth Mountain. Snow fell for two minutes at Malibu Beach, and Disneyland was closed due to the weather for only the second time in twenty-four years. A winter storm which began in the Southern Rockies four days earlier finished its course producing snow and high winds in New England. Snowfall totals ranged up to 19 inches at Blanchard ME. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Fairbanks, AK, reported freezing rain and record warm temperatures. The afternoon high of 41 degrees was 43 degrees above normal. Snow and high winds continued to plague the mountains of southern California. Mount Wilson CA reported two inches of rain in six hours during the early morning, and a storm total of more than 3.50 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Fifty-seven cities from the Southern and Central Plains to the Appalachians reported record low temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE with a reading of 17 degrees below zero. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced 18 inches of snow at Syracuse NY, and 30 inches at Carlisle IND. Low pressure brought heavy snow to northern New England, with 18 inches reported at Derby VT and Saint Johnsbury VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2000 - An F4 tornado hits communities near Tuscaloosa, AL, killing 11 people and injuring 125 others. It was the strongest December tornado in Alabama since 1950.

[SACRUS]

 

Through the 15th / first half of Dec Departure

LGA: -8.6
NYC: -8.6
EWR: -7.9
JFK: - 7.6

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Through the 15th / first half of Dec Departure

LGA: -8.6
NYC: -8.6
EWR: -7.9
JFK: - 7.6

Unbelievable stats in this new climate. Simply unreal especially for December post 2015.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Through the 15th / first half of Dec Departure

LGA: -8.6
NYC: -8.6
EWR: -7.9
JFK: - 7.6

I don't care what anybody says.  That is impressive and was well advertised.  We'll see where the month actually ends. 

[Roger Smith]

ORD anomaly for 1st to 15th is -11.3 F. 

[MJO812]

[Volcanic Winter]

Through today, my Tempest is showing an average of 30.9F for December with a low of 10.5 and a high of 49. Pretty crazy. 

AI says NJ averaged 22.7F in Dec 1989 with 5 days below zero recorded in Ocean County - that’s honestly wild if accurate. Trying to imagine these first 16 days but averaging 8 degrees less is kind of breaking my brain. 

[MANDA]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice!  SE New England is hurting some though.

Would love to see the same chart for the same date last year.  We're off to a good start so far.  Past performance is no indication of future results though.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

I don't care what anybody says.  That is impressive and was well advertised.  We'll see where the month actually ends. 

It's about time. Last December ended up normal to 1 degree below normal at most stations, after several ridiculously mild Decembers. If it were not for the big warmup after the white Christmas many of us enjoyed last year it would have been 2-3 below normal. 

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Through today, my Tempest is showing an average of 30.9F for December with a low of 10.5 and a high of 49. Pretty crazy. 

AI says NJ averaged 22.7F in Dec 1989 with 5 days below zero recorded in Ocean County - that’s honestly wild if accurate. Trying to imagine these first 16 days but averaging 8 degrees less is kind of breaking my brain. 

It was wild to say the least.    Most of the snow was suppressed south however.   Savannah, GA had a 10 inch snowstorm right before Xmas.   Around the 30th-it broke and never came back-Jan/Feb/Mar were absolute infernos

[495weatherguy]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It was wild to say the least.    Most of the snow was suppressed south however.   Savannah, GA had a 10 inch snowstorm right before Xmas.   Around the 30th-it broke and never came back-Jan/Feb/Mar were absolute infernos

Don’t remember the torch. Remember the cold though. It was brutal 

[MJO812]

Blocky gfs run

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Blocky gfs run

just have to hope the -NAO doesn't hook up with the SE ridge

[PhiEaglesfan712]

30 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Don’t remember the torch. Remember the cold though. It was brutal 

I was too young (about a year and a half), but the weather records show that the January 1990 average temperature was 15 degrees warmer than the December 1989 average temperature. That type of temperature jump is something you see from March -> April or April -> May. You don't see that in the dead of winter. It's like spring began in January that season.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I was too young (about a year and a half), but the weather records show that the January 1990 average temperature was 15 degrees warmer than the December 1989 average temperature. That type of temperature jump is something you see from March -> April or April -> May. You don't see that in the dead of winter. It's like spring began in January that season.

I wasn’t born yet lol but looking back on the weather history, the 1989-90 winter was probably (easily) the most extreme pattern flip we’ve seen in the last 50 years. We went from a record cold arctic tundra starting in November right through the end of December, then got a big cutter on New Year’s Eve and that was all she wrote, light switch flip to an unmitigated torch for all of January and February….

[SnowGoose69]

We probably need some heavy changes if we're gonna get that 12th straight La Nina +PNA Jan after a -PNA Dec.  I don't see a -2.5 on 12/31 flipping to positive before 1/10 or 1/15.  Does not mean we won't see cold and snow though if the AO/NAO are negative

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I was too young (about a year and a half), but the weather records show that the January 1990 average temperature was 15 degrees warmer than the December 1989 average temperature. That type of temperature jump is something you see from March -> April or April -> May. You don't see that in the dead of winter. It's like spring began in January that season.

The scary thing to see is that for the foreseeable future, including into early January, most of the cold is bottled up in Canada and New England. While cold air can be brought down by a storm, CONUS will be literally almost entirely void of snow and cold through early January. This prime time for building snowpack up north and west which can held cool down some temperatures. At some point that ridge will have to roll over and we'll take that warmth on the chin. It would be preferable to have some storminess and cold to ring in the New Year

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Through the 15th / first half of Dec Departure

LGA: -8.6
NYC: -8.6
EWR: -7.9
JFK: - 7.6

What about some of us up here like HPN, DXR and SWF? 

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

What about some of us up here like HPN, DXR and SWF? 

MGJ : -7.1

HPN: -7.6

DXR: -7.0

You can look them up here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

just have to hope the -NAO doesn't hook up with the SE ridge

Hopefully the PNA doesn’t tank negative, that’s what seems to drive it like what happened in 2023. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Blocky gfs run

we could definitely get something around Christmas eve and on! Not so sure I like that look though! 

[Krs4Lfe]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

we could definitely get something around Christmas eve and on! Not so sure I like that look though! 

Once the block hooks up with the southeast Ridge, like it’s been doing more often than not over the past few years that will keep most of the east US warm. The southeast Ridge is almost always under modeled so I’m not sure it’s a good look.