November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

AO forecasts continue more negative, now at - 3 SD 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[WEATHER53]

11 hours ago, Silver Meteor said:

I remember the winter of '76-'77 very well ... I was 25 at the time and living in the D.C. area. It was very cold for a lot more than just one month. 

 

Unreal pictures from back then with people well out into the bay and cars on the ice at mouth of south river into the bay.  You could not tell where the land ended and the ice began 

it did moderate in Feb 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Interesting that you have a sorta different subseasonal cycle than a lot of the other forecasts.  But still end up in the typical Nina dud for snowfall (which I tend to agree). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Interesting that you have a sorta different subseasonal cycle than a lot of the other forecasts.  But still end up in the typical Nina dud for snowfall (which I tend to agree). 

Subseasonal cycle? You mean the progression, ie mild January?

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Subseasonal cycle? You mean the progression, ie mild January?

Yes

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes

Largely based on how I think that the stratosphere will behave....PV is probably going to rebound quickly by the new year given that we are likely to have a reflection event mid January, the precursor pattern for which is a Pacific trough....implies Arctic low and Pacific trough for early January.  Then SSW in February for a colder finish. 

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Largely based on how I think that the stratosphere will behave....PV is probably going to rebound quickly by the new year given that we are likely to have a reflection event mid January, the precursor pattern for which is a Pacific trough....implies Arctic low and Pacific trough for early January.  Then SSW in February for a colder finish. 

I certainly hope we get some period of productivity in January. A lot of the Ninas during the last ~10 years have had good January periods. I’m not enthusiastic on snowfall if our best patterns are early December and March. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Doug Kammerer thinks January will be coldest month relative to normal. What is he seeing? 

[jrodd321]

On 11/8/2025 at 9:59 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

We need a fast start to winter man. Hoping this a comes true. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Yeoman]

4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Doug Kammerer thinks January will be coldest month relative to normal. What is he seeing? 

https://8-ball-magic.com/index.php#anchor

[Maestrobjwa]

Snow flurries in Atlanta today  It's just flurries but given the SOB (south of Baltimore) storm track that has persisted for most of the decade, it's still annoying nonetheless.

[mappy]

FWIW 

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Snow flurries in Atlanta today  It's just flurries but given the SOB (south of Baltimore) storm track that has persisted for most of the decade, it's still annoying nonetheless.

If Atlanta gets November flurries then there’s no way we’ve reached the point where we’ve permanently lost the 1996, 2003, 2016 tier storms.

[frd]

Commodity Wx Group  @commoditywx

 

 

Models debating speed of -EPO arrival with American fastest and European slowest; both have exhibited competitive skill in past 30 days, but AIFS ensemble middle ground may be best answer.

 

[Terpeast]

28 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If Atlanta gets November flurries then there’s no way we’ve reached the point where we’ve permanently lost the 1996, 2003, 2016 tier storms.

I absolutely agree with this. Same for LA and FL getting 10"+ and a 4 degree low soon after.

I'm not at all worried about losing the big ones. Just that they might be spaced out in larger intervals instead of every 3-7 years between 1979 and 2016.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

40 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If Atlanta gets November flurries then there’s no way we’ve reached the point where we’ve permanently lost the 1996, 2003, 2016 tier storms.

It must be an extra good day when your perspective is sunnier than mine, lol I'm just tired of seeing people in the south get snow and remaining in the screw zone in my area. It's gotta break one of these days

[JenkinsJinkies]

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same for LA and FL getting 10"+ and a 4 degree low soon after

Actually their snow came from a different mechanism than what causes our big snows. I actually asked PSU about it when it happened and he said it actually could be possible for the Gulf Coast to score the way they did while at the same time we permanently lose big snows. Now he does not believe we've reached the point where the once a decade big snow storm is a thing of the past but snowfall is still in an overall decline due to a loss of the smaller marginal events.