Event Discussion-OBS uncertain tracking thread for possible moderate impact event 8A Thu-8A Fri 10/30-31. Mainly 1-3" rains, G 45-55 MPH-mainly coast, and high prob of at least minor coastal flooding - Thursday afternoon high tide cycle.

[jm1220]

Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England. 

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England. 

Hope the 3K NAM is on to something-it nails just about everyone with 1-2 inches of rain

[Stormlover74]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hope the 3K NAM is on to something-it nails just about everyone with 1-2 inches of rain

Hrrr too

[nycwinter]

future cast showing a good soaking for long island tomorrow evening.

[wdrag]

OBS-Nowcast should go here when we start predawn Thursday. Modeling of the previously drier GEFS and SREF are becoming better with the 18z cycle and drifting east. The 00z/30 SPC HREF may be helpful when it completes around 0530z. 

No changes seem needed to the headline. 

 

[FPizz]

Not bad

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Not bad

Hopefully a nice 1-2" event. I definitely believe the heavier totals inland with the easterly upslope flow and inland track of the low. East of the low will depend on the timing/placement of frontal wave. 

[Stormlover74]

Another model with a Morris county jackpot

[ForestHillWx]

Sorry to be greedy, but we need it. Culver’s lake in Sussex was very low (presumably lowered) and the Jersey City Res. was very low when I drove by this morning. 

[SnoSki14]

Some potent stuff showing up on models actually. 3"+ amounts locally. Severe maybe?

[Snowlover11]

Pouring in Yonkers, Radar isn’t even picking it up

 

[wdrag]

As of 630A... EPS/EPS AI best on rainfall through 12z... all other modeling slower-lower including SPC HREF. Near NYC spotty amounts of 1/4" per NYS mesonet and in NJ spotty amounts of 1/2".  Sussex County NJ lagging for now with amounts least in NJ.  G 40 MPH parts of NJ coast now.   Power status NJ 1480 and NYS 350 ish which is NO big deal right now. 

 

[the_other_guy]

Long Island radar this morning…LOL

You guys out there are gonna keep complaining about the rain guage

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Long Island radar this morning…LOL

You guys out there are gonna keep complaining about the rain guage

Every model had the rain to your west at this time, Any rain you get will be from what forms this afternoon. 

[gravitylover]

.1 and plenty of wind, light rain, 47°. Looks and feels like fall with about half the leaves down.

[the_other_guy]

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Every model had the rain to your west at this time, Any rain you get will be from what forms this afternoon. 

When the sun sets early.

[bluewave]

Maybe a sting jet-like feature to watch for on Friday with some 50-60+ wind gusts as the lapse rates really steepen behind the storm especially the northern and eastern sections of the region.

[Sundog]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe a sting jet-like feature to watch for on Friday with some 50-60+ wind gusts as the lapse rates really steepen behind the storm especially the northern and eastern sections of the region.

What do you think the winds will be like in NYC tomorrow afternoon? I don't want the kids walking around for Halloween with tree limbs snapping. 

[wdrag]

Wantage 0.3" at 8A.  My AWN running high at 0.35 (heavier rainfall rates).

 

EWR 0.22,  LGA and CP .20.  JFK 0.07,  ISP .05 and BDR .01 amounts so far today as of the 12z ob. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What do you think the winds will be like in NYC tomorrow afternoon? I don't want the kids walking around for Halloween with tree limbs snapping. 

I would just watch the winds behind the storm since these westerly flow events since last winter seem to be over performing. The high temperatures usually go a few degrees above on these strong westerly flow days. This leads to the low lapse rates being steeper than forecast. Then the winds end up beating guidance. So we could see advisory level winds develop and even a few spots especially east could get close to high wind warning criteria.

[FPizz]

.46" so far.  

[MJO812]

Moderate rain here

[FPizz]

Wind just picked up.  Gust to 33

[snywx]

46° w/ 0.40" of rain

[ForestHillWx]

Decent soaking, but would have been nice if this could have popped a little coastal low. Oh well, take what we can get. 

[wdrag]

NJ Power outage up to 4500

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

.17 inches here 47 and very light drizzle. I'm hoping the heavier stuff gets in here sometime today. 

[Stormlover74]

Thundering

[psv88]

Farmingdale gusted to 41. Breezy 

[FPizz]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Thundering

Heard that here as well.  Raining pretty hard now.  Up to .75"