Event Discussion-OBS uncertain tracking thread for possible moderate impact event 8A Thu-8A Fri 10/30-31. Mainly 1-3" rains, G 45-55 MPH-mainly coast, and high prob of at least minor coastal flooding - Thursday afternoon high tide cycle.

[jm1220]

Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England. 

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England. 

Hope the 3K NAM is on to something-it nails just about everyone with 1-2 inches of rain

[Stormlover74]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hope the 3K NAM is on to something-it nails just about everyone with 1-2 inches of rain

Hrrr too

[nycwinter]

future cast showing a good soaking for long island tomorrow evening.

[wdrag]

OBS-Nowcast should go here when we start predawn Thursday. Modeling of the previously drier GEFS and SREF are becoming better with the 18z cycle and drifting east. The 00z/30 SPC HREF may be helpful when it completes around 0530z. 

No changes seem needed to the headline. 

 

[FPizz]

Not bad

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Not bad

Hopefully a nice 1-2" event. I definitely believe the heavier totals inland with the easterly upslope flow and inland track of the low. East of the low will depend on the timing/placement of frontal wave. 

[Stormlover74]

Another model with a Morris county jackpot

[ForestHillWx]

Sorry to be greedy, but we need it. Culver’s lake in Sussex was very low (presumably lowered) and the Jersey City Res. was very low when I drove by this morning. 

[SnoSki14]

Some potent stuff showing up on models actually. 3"+ amounts locally. Severe maybe?