November 2025 OBS Discussion

[qg_omega]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Central part had 10 inches of snow between two systems in March.

March not a winter month

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

March not a winter month

Still counts for the winter season total.

[SACRUS]

 

Gusting to 38 - 41 NW winds

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Took me 3 hours to go from river head to Commack. The LIE was a total disaster. It’s normally a 35 min ride 

My all-time favorite ride from Suffolk into Nassau was PD2 in 2003. Left Holbrook that Sunday evening with just cold and overcast conditions.

Quickly found developing moderate snow once down to Sunrise HWY near Bayshore. Then heavy snow and blowing snow by the time we crossed the Nassau line.

There was over 4” OTG by the time we got back to Long Beach with blowing and drifting snow. That had to be the slowest progression north that we ever had of heavy snow from the South Shore to the North Shore in a KU. 

You could watch the heavy snow on radar just south of JFK during the afternoon take until later in the evening to approach the Long Island Sound. 

 

[FPizz]

46 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still counts for the winter season total.

Ignore him, hes a troll thats pushing 50 and post limited here and banned elsewhere.  Sad really.

40 mph gust here

[lee59]

Low barometric pressure today around 29.30.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

March not a winter month

March 2019 was the last time that March was more like winter than spring month for us.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	6.2	6.2
2019	10.4	10.4
2018	11.6	11.6
2017	9.7	9.7
2016	0.9	0.9
2015	18.6	18.6
2014	0.1	0.1
2013	7.3	7.3
2012	0.0	0.0
2011	1.0	1.0
2010	T	T
2009	8.3	8.3

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	T	T
2023	0.1	0.1
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

 

[Sundog]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My all-time favorite ride from Suffolk into Nassau was PD2 in 2003. Left Holbrook that Sunday evening with just cold and overcast conditions.

Quickly found developing moderate snow once down to Sunrise HWY near Bayshore. Then heavy snow and blowing snow by the time we crossed the Nassau line.

There was over 4” OTG by the time we got back to Long Beach with blowing and drifting snow. That had to be the slowest progression north that we ever had of heavy snow from the South Shore to the North Shore in a KU. 

You could watch the heavy snow on radar just south of JFK during the afternoon take until later in the evening to approach the Long Island Sound. 

 

I remember the radar that afternoon at JFK like it happened yesterday. It took two hours just for the snow to get from JFK to LGA. But once it got going it was pounding. 

[qg_omega]

22 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I remember the radar that afternoon at JFK like it happened yesterday. It took two hours just for the snow to get from JFK to LGA. But once it got going it was pounding. 

There was ocean effect also before the overrunning started in southern queens

[nycwinter]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Thats wonderful

 

not really it feels like mid july..

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I remember the radar that afternoon at JFK like it happened yesterday. It took two hours just for the snow to get from JFK to LGA. But once it got going it was pounding. 

Yeah, most of the snow north of the South Shore on radar remained aloft for hours with the subzero dewpoints and strong high pressure.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

A colder air mass is now overspreading the region. The wind will diminish tonight. Below normal temperatures will prevail through at least Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Highs will be mainly in the middle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s.

A milder pattern will likely develop during the latter part of the week. Some rain or rain showers are possible. Once in place, the milder pattern could continue for a week or longer. If so, that could tip the odds toward a warmer than normal monthly mean temperature.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,387th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +8.20 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.552 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Some virga from late this afternoon:

[steve392]

Was a wild winter day today. Watch F18's take off from Teterboro then drive to watch landings at the sideways runway. Lots of go arounds happening early afternoon.  Atc giving out warnings non stop about turbulence and max gusts for smaller aircrafts. 

[qg_omega]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Timing wise the first 32° in NYC usually occurs around a similar time of the first hard freeze of 28° at ISP and HPN. So those similar benchmarks for fall cold still haven’t been met at those locations either.

The most noteworthy lack of cold is a little further inland at SMQ. They still haven’t reached 25° for their normally colder location which is currently 3rd latest since 1999.

Ok it was 29 last night, lots of upper 20s outside the UHI

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

Was a wild winter day today. Watch F18's take off from Teterboro then drive to watch landings at the sideways runway. Lots of go arounds happening early afternoon.  Atc giving out warnings non stop about turbulence and max gusts for smaller aircrafts. 

Chance of flurries tonight?

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, most of the snow north of the South Shore on radar remained aloft for hours with the subzero dewpoints and strong high pressure.

 

 

Man I want this to happen again 

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Man I want this to happen again 

My #2 favorite storm of all time. Jan 1996 is #1. Pretty sure though if I was around for Jan 2016 that would be my #1. The bullseye was actually over the south shore near JFK where it never is. 

[SRRTA22]

Random snow/rain shower here

[eduggs]

Maybe a period of light snow on Tuesday night with an outside chance of minor accumulations in elevated spots of NNJ, NEPA, or SENY? There's been a slow and gradual trend towards higher QPF over the past few days on most of the mid-range models and with overnight timing and a marginal antecedent airmass, it's not out of the question. The shortwave is dampening, but once in a while these end up more robust than modeled.

[Tatamy]

Watching those quick moving snow showers and squalls moving through northern and western NJ currently.  Getting a snow shower now.

[MJO812]

38 right now

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Ok it was 29 last night, lots of upper 20s outside the UHI

Yeah, but that isn’t really cold for those areas either. Remember, the lows in the UHI zones are proportional to the ones outside the urban areas. Since you aren’t going to get very cold with radiational cooling if the airmass isn’t that cold to begin with.

Even places which great radiational cooling like Saranac Lake have only dropped to 19° by November 16th. This is the 2nd warmest minimum on record through 11-16 at the airport.

Time Series Summary for SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP, NY Warmest lows  9-1 to 11-16
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2006-11-16	21	1
2	2025-11-16	19	0
3	2016-11-16	18	0
-	1998-11-16	18	0
5	2014-11-16	17	0
6	2010-11-16	16	0
-	2000-11-16	16	1
8	2021-11-16	15	0
9	2024-11-16	13	0
10	2011-11-16	12	0
-	2009-11-16	12	0
12	2008-11-16	11	0
-	2005-11-16	11	1
14	2015-11-16	10	0

[IrishRob17]

11 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Chance of flurries tonight?

I caught flurries in the middle of the night on a camera I have along the woods line. The flurries didn’t trigger it but the two bucks going back and forth did. Hard to tell exactly how big but one appeared to be a young 4 pointer, the other larger one appeared to be at least a 6, possibly 8, pointer. As a result of the clouds it didn’t get a cold as forecast here, off by about 5 degrees, low of 34. 

[steve392]

32 degree's in Mahwah, Gorgeous chilly morning on my last shift here at the communications center.  

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I caught flurries in the middle of the night on a camera I have along the woods line. The flurries didn’t trigger it but the two bucks going back and forth did. Hard to tell exactly how big but one appeared to be a young 4 pointer, the other larger one appeared to be at least a 6, possibly 8, pointer. As a result of the clouds it didn’t get a cold as forecast here, off by about 5 degrees, low of 34. 

Still a few LE flurries and very light snow showers lurking out here.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Man I want this to happen again 

That was the greatest comeback winter on record for multiple reasons.

First, 01-02 was essentially a year without a winter. 3.5” of snow and a 41.5° average winter temperature.

Second, the Christmas Day storm started with heavy thunderstorms and low 40s during the morning. Then my only 8” Christmas Day snowstorm in the evening for the greatest Christmas Day comeback of all-time. 

So a winter average of 31.2” and close to 50” of snow on the season. 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was the greatest comeback winter on record for multiple reasons.

First, 01-02 was essentially a year without a winter. 3.5” of snow and a 41.5° average winter temperature.

Second, the Christmas Day storm started with heavy thunderstorms and low 40s during the morning. Then my only 8” Christmas Day snowstorm in the evening for the greatest Christmas Day comeback of all-time. 

So a winter average of 31.2” and close to 50” of snow on the season. 

Christmas 2002 was awesome. Totally out of the blue 6-8” in a few hours mostly with the closed ULL wraparound. I think the forecast was 1-3” but the low closed off in a great spot and the snow wrapped around from upstate NY. 

[SACRUS]

40 / 24 off a low of 33. The next few weeks looks like a swing

 

11/17 - 11/29 :  Overall warmer than normal ridging into the east - mainly dry, a few days much above normal 11/20-21 , 11/26-29 period
11/30 - beyond: change turning much colder - trough into the east - colder nationwide - first storms/snow of the season 

 

[wdrag]

Looking ahead: Appended CPC week 3-4 from this past Friday...  and the 11/16 ECMWF EPS from ecmwf.int charts seems to continue the trend to chilling northern USA in December and a storm track extending from the Oh Valley into our area.  Could be too warm for snow in CP but I'll go with the standard first date of measurable in CP week two of Dec. That would mean maybe advisory snow-ice for the I84 corridor? LOOOOONG ways off so am only monitoring - not counting on much and skill beyond 10 days is limited, at best.  00z/17 global ensembles that we tend to use are not favorable for snowfall prior to Dec 2, excepting possibly the CMCE. 

In the meantime eduggs is onto it for overnight tomorrow night as an absorbed but still coherent short wave exits the mid Atlantic coast.  No thread fr the subforum at this time nor expected---too limited on areal col erase and sfc/profile temps marginal. 

Regarding the next advisory wind event... not yet a certainty but a definite possibility between 11/29-12/2.