Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

[GaWx]

 With Melissa headed to ~27.25 ACE as of 0Z this evening, it will then be only 5 lower than Erin. I see very little chance (5%) that it won’t get an additional >5 ACE the next 96 hours before extratropical transition. Thus I feel quite confident that Melissa’s ACE will exceed Erin’s 32.2.

 We’re now at 123.81 season to date with low 130s+ highly likely for the season to date through Melissa.

[apm]

18 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

952 on first pass, so pretty close to what NHC said at 5pm EDT advisory.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2513A-MELISSA.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2513A-MELISSA.png

 

NHC said 921 at 5PM (Which seemed obviously too low).

[mob1]

The mountains of Jamaica are still squeezing out some serious moisture from Melissa, flooding must be really bad there. 

[RU848789]

5 hours ago, ATDoel said:

There are plenty of videos of storm chasers standing in major hurricane/typhoon winds, you will never find one of a chaser standing directly in any tornado of any size.  You're severely downplaying the importance of the vertical component.

I'm not going to post a video here because I don't want to confuse anyone, but look up Typhoon Haiyan videos.

I've never seen a chaser/journalist actually standing in anything more than about 100 mph winds - if you have footage of someone actually standing in verified 150 mph winds, show it.  Hurricanes usually have moderately greater winds over water before landfall than actually measured on land, due to frictional effects.  I'm not downplaying anything.  

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I've never seen a chaser/journalist actually standing in anything more than about 100 mph winds - if you have footage of someone actually standing in verified 150 mph winds, show it.  Hurricanes usually have moderately greater winds over water before landfall than actually measured on land, due to frictional effects.  I'm not downplaying anything.  

Watch Josh’s Dorian video if anyone wants to know what 150+ mph winds look like in daylight. Pretty sure if you stepped outside in that your body would be found several miles away

[NJwx85]

I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Watch Josh’s Dorian video if anyone wants to know what 150+ mph winds look like in daylight. Pretty sure if you stepped outside in that your body would be found several miles away

I think he’ll have something similar from today, sadly 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.

Isidore of 2002 coming off the Yucatan came out with a hollowed out core and unexpectedly never restrengthened.

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
 
...POWERFUL MELISSA MOVING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
HOURS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 77.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

[mob1]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.

From this radar loop it looks pretty legit. 

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

From this radar loop it looks pretty legit. 

Yes almost looks like an eyewall if trying to reform just open on the south side 

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.

 

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Isidore of 2002 coming off the Yucatan came out with a hollowed out core and unexpectedly never restrengthened.

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
 
...POWERFUL MELISSA MOVING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
HOURS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 77.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

 

Just now, mob1 said:

From this radar loop it looks pretty legit. 

Very interesting and conflicting data. This was from the VDM. Very quick recon trip.

 

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT PA
NO EYE EVIDENT ON RADAR

 

 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

Very interesting and conflicting data. This was from the VDM. Very quick recon trip.

 

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT PA
NO EYE EVIDENT ON RADAR

 

 

That pass was a while ago though, and those radar images (especially the last frame that shows an attempt at building an eye) is from mere moments ago. There's another plane enroute so we'll know soon. 

[Big Jims Videos]

St. Elizabeth region.  My cousin has family and friends there who shared this video with me.  This is what was left behind. I assure you the people there are determined, strong, resilient, and proud.  

 

 

[Nibor]

8 minutes ago, mob1 said:

From this radar loop it looks pretty legit. 

Some storms are just anomalously resilient. Melissa seems like one of those.

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, mob1 said:

That pass was a while ago though, and those radar images (especially the last frame that shows an attempt at building an eye) is from mere moments ago. There's another plane enroute so we'll know soon. 

Thanks. Maybe it’s a mid level feature working its way down. That radar and the rapidly improving IR would suggest that Melissa is reorganizing rapidly. Will take a bit to intensify imo, and nothing meaningful will happen intensity wise if the eyewall isn’t fully closed. 

[NJwx85]

It does look like there is an attempt at building a core. The “eye” is warming.

[mob1]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. Maybe it’s a mid level feature working its way down. That radar and the rapidly improving IR would suggest that Melissa is reorganizing rapidly. Will take a bit to intensify imo, and nothing meaningful will happen intensity wise if the eyewall isn’t fully closed. 

Very possible.

It takes a LOT to build (and in this case rebuild) a hurricane's core and it's fairly easy to get faked out by warm spots on IR. Even that radar isn't exactly the greatest resolution (and whatever that clearing is, it's very far from the radar site) so it can easily be a displaced MLC. I don't think it's the case though. 

We'll see from the recon if there are any pressure falls or if the inner structure has improved a bit from the last recon. It's starting to look fairly healthy on IR and radar so it'll be interesting. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Yeppers, we are about to see another round of rapid pressure falls. That ain’t a “hollowed out truck tire”. That’s a bona fide eyewall resuming its destructive path 

[mob1]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Yeppers, we are about to see another round of rapid pressure falls. That ain’t a “hollowed out truck tire”. That’s a bona fide eyewall resuming its destructive path 

Yeah...

[WolfStock1]

Yeah wow - rapid re-formation:

[amc]

Looking on twitter for pictures and videos, but not seeing much. Assuming communication and power is very disrupted. Here is an interesting view of this. This is from Cloudflare radar showing traffic from Jamaica over the last 24 hours. Dotted lines are a normal day. Can almost see the storm arrive over time on this graph. 

 

 

https://radar.cloudflare.com/jm?dateRange=1d 

[NavarreDon]

The Water Vapor RGB paints an interesting picture! Maybe a name change from Melissa to the Energizer Bunny is in order?


.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just casually going beastmode again. This is a historic storm yall. We might not see one like this again in our lives

[Boston Bulldog]

Lightning all over the core now, category 4 landfall certainly back in play 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Disrupted majorly over Jamaica, hits open water and goes balls to the wall again. Is recon en route? 

[allgame830]

Is there another plane in route? 

[mob1]

Just now, allgame830 said:

Is there another plane in route? 

There's supposed to be one, but it's been going in circles next to Haiti so I'm not sure what's happening. 

[Diggiebot]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Just casually going beastmode again. This is a historic storm yall. We might not see one like this again in our lives

Dorian was something with the slow crawl but this is same level with the impact catastrophic over huge areas and still the Bahamas and Bermuda to come 

[NoCORH4L]

Guantanamo prisoners running free due to heavy damage?

[Maestrobjwa]

Something told me this storm wasn't gonna just lay down. There's just something about epic storms like this--they just break the rules, lol