OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[wdrag]

Visuals with power problems, even in nw NJ at 620AM Rides running 3' a move normal right now so a very good chance of moderate coastal flooding with the midday-afternoon high tide.

Winds a little lower than expected on LI but the Fire MIN GUST tool from SPC HREF set the bottom line very well.

So... here are some visuals on rainfall, power outages and airport gusts 46MPH or greater the past 3 hours ending around 6AM.

[wdrag]

Added the most likely scenario for the afternoon high tide, SANDY HOOK representing the onshore packed in water.  Rainfall runoff and backed up streams that empty into the Atlantic will exacerbate the flooding this afternoon. So far, no official storm reports that I can see from OKX.

[Sundog]

2.09 inches of rain for the event so far. 

Very satisfied 

[bluewave]

Very moderate event as the system split into two weaker lows instead of one strong consolidated one. Generally 1 to 1.5 so far for my area. While we have had much heavier rains with October nor’easters in the past, I will take it since we need the rains. 

[wdrag]

Isolated spots may be pick up an additional 2" between now and 8PM, along the coasts... IF convection emerges this afternoon as modeled by the HRRR.

Looks like pretty good impact,  travel wise per TV reports and what has been posted here this morning. Anticipate DELAYS and maybe some detours. 

Will post a summary report tomorrow morning around 9A, for CoCoRaHs 3 day totals but looking good.  Wind driven rains this morning... intermittent in some spots.

[wdrag]

Officially past 2 inches for the entire event Sat-now at Holmdell NJ, Queens and Stony Brook on LI.  Suggests to me that iso 4 within the realm of possibility. Otherwise bigger amounts of at least 4" will probably be coastal RI out to Cape Cod. 

[snywx]

0.35” here

[Picard]

27 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Officially past 2 inches for the entire event Sat-now at Holmdell NJ, Queens and Stony Brook on LI.  Suggests to me that iso 4 within the realm of possibility. Otherwise bigger amounts of at least 4" will probably be coastal RI out to Cape Cod. 

Sharp cutoffs continue to be a feature.  This will be fun this winter.  I'm up to 0.30" event total from 0.21" overnight.  Wind is howling this morning.  I didn't witness any power outages as of yet in my travels out this way.

[wthrmn654]

We had a lot of severe erosion worth massive waves right now on gardiners bay

[wthrmn654]

Fire at nursing home resulting in everyone being evacuated to riverhead pbmc. Didn't call orient though. 

[Brian5671]

1.75 here still raining off and on

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1.14 inches total here. 25 miles to my west (port jervis, high point NJ area) I'm guessing they are hard pressed for half an inch. If this were a snow event there would be a huge cutoff and lots of snow deprived. 

[IrishRob17]

.82 and still raining up here well north of 287

[uofmiami]

1.96” in Syosset & 1.44” in Muttontown.

[weathermedic]

1 inch at my station so far here in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn

[qg_omega]

2.41, wasnt expecting that much.  Winds were mostly in the 30s as expected.  Drought gone around here now. 

[STORMANLI]

1.88"

[Sundog]

What is with the neverending firing up of rain along the Jersey shore?

You would think there were mountains going down the spine of the state. 

[MJO812]

Chilly with drizzle here

[lee59]

1.35 inch of rain so far but more looks to be moving in. Peak gust at my station 34mph.

[uofmiami]

Driving along 25A, appeared 2 cars got hit by a fallen branch in East Norwich earlier. Police were on scene with one car on flatbed tow truck with a crushed front roof and windshield destroyed.  The other car was just being loaded on to another tow truck.  

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Picard said:

Sharp cutoffs continue to be a feature.  This will be fun this winter.  I'm up to 0.30" event total from 0.21" overnight.  Wind is howling this morning.  I didn't witness any power outages as of yet in my travels out this way.

If this were winter, a lot of us would have been greatly disappointed...

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

1.14 inches total here. 25 miles to my west (port jervis, high point NJ area) I'm guessing they are hard pressed for half an inch. If this were a snow event there would be a huge cutoff and lots of snow deprived. 

Since just a few miles inland, most of the precipitation was light, I would imagine that the same event in February would have been just a wintry mix.

[snywx]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

.82 and still raining up here well north of 287

.52 here 

sharp cutoff within the county 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

If this were winter, a lot of us would have been greatly disappointed...

Haha yup, just .11" here of mostly mist.  Since we had a freeze and the garden is dead and grass mostly is done growing, I'm happy not to get the 1"+ rains.  Dogs won't be muddy and soaked when they come in from their potty breaks.  If it was winter though, it would have sucked, though its happened plenty of times. 

 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Isolated spots may be pick up an additional 2" between now and 8PM, along the coasts... IF convection emerges this afternoon as modeled by the HRRR.

Looks like pretty good impact,  travel wise per TV reports and what has been posted here this morning. Anticipate DELAYS and maybe some detours. 

Will post a summary report tomorrow morning around 9A, for CoCoRaHs 3 day totals but looking good.  Wind driven rains this morning... intermittent in some spots.

About 1.08" at Newark so far...

[psv88]

2.26” and a lot more to come

[psv88]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

Max winds OKX
 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=2&highlight=off&glossary=1

Definitely heard those big gusts at 3 am, the 48/49 at FRG and ISP line up. A few house shakers woke me up

[wdrag]

If this were winter...I'd say wait to crow until midnight tonight.

MUCH more to come today. 1-2", iso heavier coasts and even interior will do ok. 

Convection developing per HRRR - might be quite a nasty afternoon parts of coasts.

Am pretty sure some parts Li and eastern Nj will end up with 4".

CoCoRaHs two day.  .31 Wantage since 5P yesterday.  Two day .4, heading for .6-1.0 three day totals by tomorrow morning. 

Click for more detail.

 

[donsutherland1]

Through 9 am, rainfall amounts have been pretty much in line with expectations for the ongoing event.