October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[wdrag]

No thread yet---  not at tipping point for a 60% or greater moderate impact worthy forum event.

WPC increased their qpf overnight. GFS and CMC modeling more ominous and even the 5H westward EC suite putting us on the edge but for now, all obs-disc can remain here.  Will rereview late today-don't want to overstate.  

This will have travel impact here...certainly late Thu-early Fri and those who have to be somewhere on time might consider possible adjustments if below comes to fruition.

To me... looks like minimum 1/2- maximum 3" rain event with max coastal gust 45-55 MPH late Thu-early Fri when it should be at its worst here w associated leafed tree breakage inducing power outages. Minor coastal flooding possible Thu afternoon or Fri morning high tide cycle but first quarter lunar cycle is not favorable for easier flooding.. Max 2-3" rainfall axis could still split the forum to the west and east but for now the target is as WPC has it... I95 eastward and so if all goes well-beneficially- we'll see October rainfall end up within 1/2" of normal... somewhere between 3.3-4.3"--thats a guess that sides with the WPC 09z rainfall forecast. Noting CP October rainfall is 0.4" above all other OKX Climate sites. 

Will check in late today--have a good day. 

[gravitylover]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The models have gone from showing a true coastal storm/nor’easter to an inland runner/cutter

That's because they're preparing for winter. They're making sure they know how to properly screw us.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The models have gone from showing a true coastal storm/nor’easter to an inland runner/cutter

This has been one of the model forecast error patterns for years now of underestimating the WAR or Southeast ridge in the longer range. It’s what has been happening with such a strong Pacific Jet and near record SST warmth over the Gulf Stream and Atlantic.

The models were originally forecasting the main low to be a coastal track to our east. But now the -NAO is linking up with the Greenland block again so the low is cutting to our west.

So we haven’t any really deep lows taking a benchmark track since January 2022 during the winters. Even the coastal a few weeks ago were two weaker lows instead of one consolidated one.  

Our primary storm track since 2018-2019 has been cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream leading to the record 7 year low snowfall totals along the I-95 corridor. 

I am hoping one of these winters we can get a great MJO 8 month like January 2022 again with the strong benchmark tracks. But each of the times the MJO is approaching phase 8 it has weakened and reloaded into the warmer phases again. So this will probably be a short term modeling surprise if it happens again and not really seen from weeks out.

New run stronger WAR

Old run weaker WAR

 

 

[NEG NAO]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been one of the model forecast error patterns for years now of underestimating the WAR or Southeast ridge in the longer range. It’s what has been happening with such a strong Pacific Jet and near record SST warmth over the Gulf Stream and Atlantic.

The models were originally forecasting the main low to be a coastal track to our east. But now the -NAO is linking up with the Greenland block again so the low is cutting to our west.

So we haven’t any really deep lows taking a benchmark track since January 2022 during the winters. Even the coastal a few weeks ago were two weaker lows instead of one consolidated one.  

Our primary storm track since 2018-2019 has been cutter, hugger, and Southern Stream suppression leading to the record 7 year low snowfall totals along the I-95 corridor. 

I am hoping one of these winters we can get a great MJO 8 month like January 2022 again with the strong benchmark tracks. But each of the times the MJO is approaching phase 8 it has weakened and reloaded into the warmer phases again. So this will probably be a short term modeling surprise if it happens again and not really seen from weeks out.

New run stronger WAR

Old run weaker WAR

 

 

This is a definite storm thread worthy event IMO for  along the Jersey/Long Island coast because they still haven't fully recovered from the previous storm a couple weeks ago .....as for storm tracks this winter its going to come down to the movement timing of key players on the field during each individual event IMO ............

[bluewave]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

This is a definite storm thread worthy event IMO for  along the Jersey/Long Island coast because they still haven't fully recovered from the previous storm a couple weeks ago .....as for storm tracks this winter its going to come down to the movement timing of key players on the field during each individual event IMO ............

Each event is constrained by the overall pattern and not the other way around.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Each event is constrained by the overall pattern and not the other way around.

so you are saying we will have an inland runner pattern this winter similar to this late week storm and snowfall will be limited in the metro this winter ?

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so you are saying we will have an inland runner pattern this winter similar to this late week storm and snowfall will be limited in the metro this winter ?

What I have been saying is that the faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet driven by the gradient formed between the record SSTs over the WPAC and Siberian cold has lead to the dominant cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream since 2018-2019 producing the record low 7 year snowfall totals along the I -95 corridor.

My early guess for this winter is that average DJF temperatures will be warmer than last winter was based on the tropical forcing that we are currently experiencing. I was able to identify the factor last October which lead to the colder winter which I discussed in the main forum. This feature isn’t there this October.

But since the snowfall was so low last winter, can’t be sure whether we see something similar again or we get a short term favorable MJO leading to higher snowfall totals than last winter. Since we could beat last winters snowfall totals with a few good storm tracks.

But the December 4” rule will probably be in effect again for La Ninas. Nearly all La Niña winters since 1991 with under 4” at places like NYC and Newark in December finished the season below. And all above this level went into snowy seasons. Last December we came in under which lead to my December guess for another below average snowfall season which worked out.

[SACRUS]

 

45  / 44  partly cloudy.  Should clear up to get mostly sunny with warmest at or low 60s.  Dry / cooler Mon - Wed before dealing withthe cutoff and system Thu (30th) it does look to dry up and perhaps clear out for fri.  Beyond there near - below normal the opening week with progression toward or above normal overall beyond there.

 

[jm1220]

The reality is what is is on the Pacific side, and since that is the largest ocean and holder of worldwide heat, it largely drives our weather. We can deal with modestly unfavorable and make it work with a decent NAO and luck like 2010-11 for example, but off the charts unfavorable like the last few years and there's just no way for it to work unless we pull something like a royal flush. I don't like the reality same as anyone else here but we have to accept it. The N PAC especially east of Japan needs to markedly change for there to be good favorable windows near the coast for snowstorms. Maybe some combination of factors can happen to pull a rabbit out of the hat but we saw last winter-time after time favorable setups collapsed. If this was 15-20 years ago when the Pacific was better, last winter would've been a 50"+ season areawide. 

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

45  / 44  partly cloudy.  Should clear up to get mostly sunny with warmest at or low 60s.  Dry / cooler Mon - Wed before dealing withthe cutoff and system Thu (30th) it does look to dry up and perhaps clear out for fri.  Beyond there near - below normal the opening week with progression toward or above normal overall beyond there.

 

The sun is just starting to peek through here, low of only 43 due to all the clouds, 45 currently. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 82 (2023) 
NYC: 78 (1964)
LGA: 80 (2023)
JFK: 78 (1971)

 

Lows: 

EWR: 31 (1952)
NYC: 30 (1879)
LGA: 34 (1962)
JFK: 32 (1962)

Historical:

 

1859 - New York City had their earliest substantial snow of record as four inches blanketed the city. (David Ludlum)



1865: A hurricane sank the steamship USS Mobile off the Georgia coast. The wreck, laden with 20,000 gold coins, was found in 2003.


1879: Boston, Massachusetts had a low temperature of 25 °F on October 26th the coldest temperature for October. Also another 25 °F low was recorded on October 27, 1936. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1919 - The temperature at Bismarck, ND, plunged to ten degrees below zero, the earliest subzero reading of record for the city, and a record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)

1926 - Barrow, AK, received a record fifteen inches of snow, and also established a 24 hour precipitation record of 1.00 inch which lasted until the 21st of July in 1987. (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: There have been thousands of weather reconnaissance and research flights into hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific since the mid-1940s. There have been several close calls, but only four flights have been lost. A B-29 Super-fortress flight into Super Typhoon Wilma 350 miles east of Leyte in the Philippines disappeared on this date. No trace was ever found of the plane or crew. In the last report, the flight was in the Super typhoon's strongest winds, which were around 160 mph.

1962 - A storm brought five to six inches of snow to Vermont and New Hampshire, with up to ten inches reported in the mountains. (The Weather Channel)

1962: An early season snowstorm hit New England with the most snow over interior sections. Greenville, ME recorded 13.9 inches Worcester, MA recorded 4.7 inches and Portland, ME had 3.6 inches. All of these amounts were new records for the greatest amount of snow for so early in the season.  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)  Canadian high pressure ushered record cold from the northern Plains to the Southeast. Rockford, IL at 18° recorded their coldest October temperature. Other daily record lows included: Beckley, WV: 18°, Cincinnati, OH: 19°, Dayton, OH: 21°, Mansfield, OH: 21°, Huntington, WV: 21°, Springfield, IL: 22°, Columbus, OH: 23°, Lexington, KY: 23°, Akron, OH: 24°, Charleston, WV: 24°, Lynchburg, VA: 25°, Pittsburgh, PA: 25°, Raleigh, NC: 27°, Charlotte, NC: 29°, Atlanta, GA: 30°, Athens, GA: 31°, Montgomery, AL: 32°, Wilmington, NC: 32°, Charleston, SC: 33°, Savannah, GA: 34° and Norfolk, VA: 36°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1968: Canadian high pressure system behind a strong cold front brought chilly temperatures to the Southeast. Cross City, FL reported and all-time October record low of 30°. Other daily record lows included: Nashville, TN: 27°, Paducah, KY: 28°, Chattanooga, TN: 29°, Birmingham, AL: 29°, Atlanta, GA: 29°, Montgomery, AL: 31°, Macon, GA: 32°, Tallahassee, FL: 35°, Baton Rouge, LA: 37°-Tied, Pensacola, FL: 40°-Tied and Vero Beach, FL: 50°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983 - A heat wave was in progress over the Northern Rockies, with record highs of 81 degrees at Sheridan WY and Billings MT.(Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - Five cities in south central Texas reported record high temperatures for the date, including Corpus Christi and Del Rio with readings of 93 degrees. Laredo TX was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 98 degrees. Thunderstorms moving over the Lower Mississsippi Valley deluged Lake Charles LA with 2.70 inches of rain in one hour resulting in severe local flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1997: An autumn snowstorm pummeled central and south-central Nebraska with record early season snows. Wind-driven snowfall amounts totaled as much as two feet by storms' end. Several highways were closed, including Interstate 80, as near-blizzard conditions developed. Once the snow subsided, the record early season snow totals were tallied. Guide Rock measured twenty-four inches of snow, Clay Center twenty-three inches, and Hastings seventeen inches. A fifty-mile wide swath of snow more than fifteen inches fell from near Alma to York. Amounts further north averaged from four to eight inches. The heavy, wet snow was responsible for many power outages in the area as tree limbs broke and fell on power lines. At one point, the town of Hardy had no power and could not be accessed by vehicles due to the snow. Numerous schools and businesses remained closed several days following the storm. Many highways, including Interstate 80, closed at the height of the storm. On Highway 136 east of Alma, road crews worked for ten hours carving through a ten-foot drift that covered the road. Record cold accompanied the snow as temperatures dropped to the single digits on the morning of the 26th.

1988 - Thunderstorms moving out of northern Texas spawned five tornadoes in Louisiana during the morning hours. The thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jennings LA, and the driver of a vehicle was killed by a falling tree near Coushatta LA. Snow squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region produced heavy snow in western New York State, with 12 inches reported at Colden. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the north central U.S. Afternoon highs of 78 degrees at Alpena MI, 75 degrees at Duluth MN, 79 degrees at Fargo ND, 77 degrees at International Falls MN, 76 degrees at Marquette MI, 75 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI, and 80 degrees at Saint Cloud MN, were all the warmest of record for so late in the season. Morning lows of 63 degrees at Concordia KS and Omaha NE were the warmest of record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1997: Scientists discovered a massive "blowdown" of 20,000 acres of spruce trees in north-central Colorado. 31 square miles of old-growth forests high in the Rockies were destroyed by unusual "mountain wave" clouds that blew 120 mph winds along the western side of the Continental Divide as a major blizzard pounded the Plains from the through the 26th. Behind the storm, record low temperatures were reported across the Plains including: Scottsbluff, NE: 0°, Rapid City, SD: 2°, Goodland, KS: 10°, Grand Island, NE: 13°-Tied and Omaha, NE: 21°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: Hurricane Mitch, the second deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean, reached Category 5 strength on this day.

2002: The football game between the Richmond Spiders and Rhode Island was suspended due to a flooded field at Meade Stadium in Kingston, RI. The field began to become covered with water during the first half, but a halftime downpour covered the entire field. Water was knee deep on parts of the field and no grass was visible by the time the game was suspended. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: The summit on Mt. Washington, NH received an additional 27.5 inches of snow during the overnight to break their 24-hour snowfall record set just 9 days earlier. During the previous 12 days, 72 inches fell, nearly 25 % of the normal yearly total.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. WxDoctor)

 

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so you are saying we will have an inland runner pattern this winter similar to this late week storm and snowfall will be limited in the metro this winter ?

Too early to say anything about the winter pattern 

[psv88]

41.8

[FPizz]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Too early to say anything about the winter pattern 

Some people make 1000s of posts, say every scenario possible,  then claim they were able to identify the winter pattern in October. Its quite funny, and also shows they have a complex of some sort. 

[wdrag]

Confusion emoji to me means uncertainty. Over the years of publishing for the NWS, I learned maybe a little... self discipline is a desired trait as is patience. While I think something, I prefer to be mostly correct in the expected reality--especitally D5.

I'll have much more time this evening to balance the tipping point for a thread.  Right now, our 06z/26 evaluated Average Return Interval for LGA is 9% for a 2 year or less return rate. That's not very high.  

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Confusion emoji to me means uncertainty. Over the years of publishing for the NWS, I learned maybe a little... self discipline is a desired trait as is patience. While I think something, I prefer to be mostly correct in the expected reality--especitally D5.

I'll have much more time this evening to balance the tipping point for a thread.  Right now, our 06z/26 evaluated Average Return Interval for LGA is 9% for a 2 year or less return rate. That's not very high.  

I posted the confusion emoji - because I am confused about exactly what triggers creating a storm thread now. I think there should be a storm thread created with emphasis on the Jersey Coast/ Long Island threats especially storm surge/flooding etc. etc. because as previously mentioned some areas have not fully recovered from the last storm 2 weeks ago. ALSO we still don't know exactly where that hurricane will track and its potential impacts on the coast combined with the coastal and or inland LP trough etc. etc. - I think inland areas will experience conditions similar to 2 weeks ago - agree or disagree ?

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I posted the confusion emoji - because I am confused about exactly what triggers creating a storm thread now. I think there should be a storm thread created with emphasis on the Jersey Coast/ Long Island threats especially storm surge/flooding etc. etc. because as previously mentioned some areas have not fully recovered from the last storm 2 weeks ago. ALSO we still don't know exactly where that hurricane will track and its potential impacts on the coast combined with the coastal and or inland LP trough etc. etc. - I think inland areas will experience conditions similar to 2 weeks ago - agree or disagree ?

But the models past 72 hours have been so bad that confidence is still low. No harm in waiting 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The reality is what is is on the Pacific side, and since that is the largest ocean and holder of worldwide heat, it largely drives our weather. We can deal with modestly unfavorable and make it work with a decent NAO and luck like 2010-11 for example, but off the charts unfavorable like the last few years and there's just no way for it to work unless we pull something like a royal flush. I don't like the reality same as anyone else here but we have to accept it. The N PAC especially east of Japan needs to markedly change for there to be good favorable windows near the coast for snowstorms. Maybe some combination of factors can happen to pull a rabbit out of the hat but we saw last winter-time after time favorable setups collapsed. If this was 15-20 years ago when the Pacific was better, last winter would've been a 50"+ season areawide. 

Another factor was the position and strength of high pressure to our north. There were a few events where suppression made a factor and kept systems to our south.

[wdrag]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I posted the confusion emoji - because I am confused about exactly what triggers creating a storm thread now. I think there should be a storm thread created with emphasis on the Jersey Coast/ Long Island threats especially storm surge/flooding etc. etc. because as previously mentioned some areas have not fully recovered from the last storm 2 weeks ago. ALSO we still don't know exactly where that hurricane will track and its potential impacts on the coast combined with the coastal and or inland LP trough etc. etc. - I think inland areas will experience conditions similar to 2 weeks ago - agree or disagree ?

I think a little less on wind from 2 weeks ago... tides definitely less (lunar 1/4 moon) but if sfc Pres drops to 995 when it passes NYC then maybe similar to two weeks ago. Rainfall will distribute differently but a good chance of 1+. This is D5..  Many might not care a bout 1.5" rain and iso power outage.  

There isn't a threshold but if we publish--- then this may garner more attention outside our normal membership... I want it to be reliable which means succeeds.  I'm on board as posted earlier but this is for group and I want to make sure the group shines in its attention.  

Two weeks ago had much better agreement on moderate impact and even the tides were just a little less than anticipated except central NJ coast.

We've been talking about this for days. EC/ECAI moving the max HFC west of us bothered me... I kind of like this to maximize over NJ/LI/CT... the one consideration in favor of stronger wind is NORTHWARD MOVING HFC with sfc wind turning se-s... if the sfc low does pass west.  GEFS and CMCE have me most concerned about 6-12 hr moderate impact. 

That may not help...  maybe this does.  Once I thread it... I sweat it... just like I did in NWS with HWO etc... sleep interrupted worry.  I feel some sort of responsibility to what I post...  Just not quite confident enough and I do not need the naysayers saying I told you so.  I think we have time. Probably offline til 3P.

[gravitylover]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

That may not help...  maybe this does.  Once I thread it... I sweat it... just like I did in NWS with HWO etc... sleep interrupted worry.  I feel some sort of responsibility to what I post...  Just not quite confident enough and I do not need the naysayers saying I told you so.  I think we have time. Probably offline til 3P.

I've sensed this for a long time, it's a big part of what drew me to read your work years ago and keeps me following you. Thanks for the good work 

[wdrag]

At a 40th party now but I will get a tracker thread going for Thursday-Friday.  Moderate impact 12 hour event 1-3 inches, all the other parameters mentioned earlier today. I just need computer time at home to phrase carefully.  Should see the thread at 6pm. Have seen 12z/26 gfs and cmc ops. 
 

remember this is D5.  Lots can go awry so let’s be a little cautious on anticipating too much wind and rain.  

[SACRUS]

 

61 / 39 great fall day

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The idea of a significant rainfall across the New York City area remains on track. The latest EFI shows the spatial area of significant rains. Based on the overall guidance, noting that there is some uncertainty about the placement of the heaviest rains, a general 1"-3" multi-day rain event appears likely.