Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s our turn.. it’s our time 

"This is our time, it's our time down here...."

[Torch Tiger]

19 minutes ago, FXWX said:

While it is always fun to fantasize about extreme events, this setup is still a long shot for New England!  Signal for a violent Atlantic system is strong, but right now I think the chance it has direct impacts for most of the Northeast is low.  It is not like the ensembles show a clustering into New England.  The Canadian has always been good for weather porn, but rarely leads the way.  After a while, chasing the one or two outlying ensemble members gets old.  I would love to see a late October monster hybrid, but until I see a wholesale change in where the main ensemble cluster sets up, I would recommend keeping expectations very much on the low side.  Although if I were living in NS I'd keep close tabs.

 

 

Yeah it's very low chances, but certainly not impossible. Even the ensemble "clusters" or "camps" are a mess through D5, even D2. lol so we'll see where things land in a few days.

[CoastalWx]

I think we all know it's low chance. But it's fun to fire up Kev only to see his disappointment a week later.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we all know it's low chance. But it's fun to fire up Kev only to see his disappointment a week later.

This time though. Something is different. This one has legs. It’s not a pipe dream . Strong gut feeling . Just a different setup and feel. Either shit or get off the pot. Those that want to join me… please do so now as the train will quickly pick up steam this weekend when it becomes obvious what’s coming .

[Brian5671]

Let's have a perfect storm redux....

[CT Rain]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This time though. Something is different. This one has legs. It’s not a pipe dream . Strong gut feeling . Just a different setup and feel. Either shit or get off the pot. Those that want to join me… please do so now as the train will quickly pick up steam this weekend when it becomes obvious what’s coming .

You're ridiculous 

[alex]

Ended up with 1.5” of rain, 5” for the month. The river did rise this time…

[ineedsnow]

I don't think I've even seen one model forecast above 195kts

[moneypitmike]

A nice double rainbow this evening as another heavy shower rolls through.

Snuck in just a few minutes before sunset.

 

[MJO812]

Gfs says no 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs says no 

Who cares 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares 

Jeez gfs is way different than the other models

[ineedsnow]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez gfs is way different than the other models

either its going to be king or one of these runs its going to flop.. GEFS are mostly west of the op

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah it's very low chances, but certainly not impossible. Even the ensemble "clusters" or "camps" are a mess through D5, even D2. lol so we'll see where things land in a few days.

Agree... And yes!  Would love to track a one in every 20 - 30 year storm...

[CoastalWx]

GEFS have two camps. Icon and gfs

op in the east camp. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we all know it's low chance. But it's fun to fire up Kev only to see his disappointment a week later.

Lol... Sooner or later there has to be a major bust in our favor...  I love Kevin... He goes all in and one of these days he will be able to spit in our faces...  

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Lol... Sooner or later there has to be a major bust in our favor...  I love Kevin... He goes all in and one of these days he will be able to spit in our faces...  

hopefully next week 

[bkviking]

October 21, 2012 CMC forecast. 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To Tip’s earlier point, irrespective of what happens with Melissa, there is a strong storm signal on the EPS. If there is any tropical infusion it’ll be a hell of a hybrid for us or Atlantic Canada. 

 

 

There are some absolutely nuclear solutions across guidance. 

 

3 hours ago, FXWX said:

While it is always fun to fantasize about extreme events, this setup is still a long shot for New England!  Signal for a violent Atlantic system is strong, but right now I think the chance it has direct impacts for most of the Northeast is low.  It is not like the ensembles show a clustering into New England.  The Canadian has always been good for weather porn, but rarely leads the way.  After a while, chasing the one or two outlying ensemble members gets old.  I would love to see a late October monster hybrid, but until I see a wholesale change in where the main ensemble cluster sets up, I would recommend keeping expectations very much on the low side.  Although if I were living in NS I'd keep close tabs.

 

 

Congrats Bermuda. It's always Bermuda.

[Chrisrotary12]

Stein continues on the GFS huh? Oh well.

[jsw]

We have achieved peak color! 

[FXWX]

36 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

Congrats Bermuda. It's always Bermuda.

Yep

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I mean it’s a hobby so it’s fun to chase ghosts but really isn’t a great pattern to get a hurricane into New England. 
A Cape Cod fringe or Nova Scotia special is possible I guess. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean it’s a hobby so it’s fun to chase ghosts but really isn’t a great pattern to get a hurricane into New England. 
A Cape Cod fringe or Nova Scotia special is possible I guess. 

It actually is a great pattern to get one. Deep trough and a big block 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It actually is the best pattern to get one. Deep trough and a big block 

By tomorrow it’ll be congrats Spain.  

[WxWatcher007]

43 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean it’s a hobby so it’s fun to chase ghosts but really isn’t a great pattern to get a hurricane into New England. 
A Cape Cod fringe or Nova Scotia special is possible I guess. 

If the EPS is right, we're squarely in the ballpark for some sort of hybrid or "TC guts" as Tip puts it. But what happens in the Caribbean has a huge impact on whether this is kicked or captured in some fashion, and that is a legitimate unknown right now. Location and speed will matter. 

There's going to be a lot of uncertainty in the coming days--more than usual, but it's hard to look at the EPS and GDMI and not be modestly intrigued. Again, pure tropical is a pipe dream IMO. If people are expecting that, close the shades. 

If we're talking hybrid though, nobody needs the center riding over their head for a highly impactful storm in New England or Atlantic Canada. A C3 or C4 wrapping into a substantial trough in the east would do, even if it's just off the coast (though if it's captured it'll come NW/NNW).

[Diggiebot]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If the EPS is right, we're squarely in the ballpark for some sort of hybrid or "TC guts" as Tip puts it. But what happens in the Caribbean has a huge impact on whether this is kicked or captured in some fashion, and that is a legitimate unknown right now. Location and speed will matter. 

There's going to be a lot of uncertainty in the coming days--more than usual, but it's hard to look at the EPS and GDMI and not be modestly intrigued. Again, pure tropical is a pipe dream IMO. If people are expecting that, close the shades. 

If we're talking hybrid though, nobody needs the center riding over their head for a highly impactful storm in New England or Atlantic Canada. A C3 or C4 wrapping into a substantial trough in the east would do, even if it's just off the coast (though if it's captured it'll come NW/NNW).

Wayyyyy more promise than any other threat the last 5 years 

[WxWatcher007]

If that trough were cutting off near the Great Lakes, we’d really be in business. But that doesn’t look to be on the table. Too progressive and it gets kicked, so that makes all this a much lower likelihood from the start.