Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[TheClimateChanger]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Cold morning out here today, Low was 28.4°F, Sitting at 38.3°F with some misery mist ahead of the rain and wind.

Wow, that 136.8F annual maximum! 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, that 136.8F annual maximum! 

So isn't the -40, lol, Bit of a hiccup when the batteries get low.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah this frontal system isn't going to commit to a coastal until very late, too late to really be a coastal for SNE and points down the EC.   Appears there's a some commitment to doing so up along the Maine coast, ...even gets interesting up in eastern Quebec.  But the overall belated behavior makes this more of an occluded and quick transition through inclement conditions sometime this evening.  In fact, it may be dry by 6z and just west windy with falling temps tomorrow.   Boring and pedestrian and utterly normal for the 2nd worst time of the year behind the god-forsaken April misery - altho, in fairness... Aprils seem to have been improving in recent decade but anecdotal.  Lol. 

Couple aspects.   This system lacked antecedent cold air.  The preceding d(indexes) liked this period for a coastal - the fact that that it probably does commit and redevelop and deepen in time to clip D.E.M. with NE/rains ...  is probably at least a gyp verification on that...  But, if this had been colder, than the primary would not have wound up and occluded so fast, collocated with the trough so far west. We end up with a triple point some 1100 km away around Cape Cod.  The actual 500 mb wave spacing moves the wind max SE of ISP ... in the past, with cold air, the primary can't penetrate and the new low happens sooner where there's less resistance along farther SE and the whole thing feeds-back on the east position.  It's balancing q-g forcing against lowering viscosity/boundary layer resistance.   Not enough of the latter and the low ends up purely under the q-g/omega and through NY she goes.

The other aspect is the modeling attenuation.  It's all but dependable that some percentage of total amplitude out beyond D6 or 7 ... disappeared when just about anything in consideration arrives inside 72 hours.   All the models do this.  I still don't definitively know exactly why that is (tho some ideas... ) but it's rather dependable. This system did appear to attenuate some as it came into shorter range.

[dryslot]

Not good.

 

[WxWatcher007]

WXW2 may actually get on the board with this storm @powderfreak. Maybe a half inch or so. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

WXW2 may actually get on the board with this storm @powderfreak. Maybe a half inch or so. 

Agreed.  Looks like backside snow levels and upslope showery precip could coat the high valleys of the ADKs. 

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, dryslot said:

Going to make a county trip this year.

Go all the way to Fort Kent - Northern Door Motel, Breakfast at Rocks Cafe then head west.  If you don't mind some ungroomed trails, Deboullie is spectacular. 
Then stop at Two Rivers Lunch in Allagash, maybe motor up to Estcourt Station (unless you've already been to that northernmost tip of the state).

Temp was 28 at 11 last evening but the clouds were beginning to sift in, and it was 30 at 7 this morning.  Otherwise we would've been down near 20.

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Go all the way to Fort Kent - Northern Door Motel, Breakfast at Rocks Cafe then head west.  If you don't mind some ungroomed trails, Deboullie is spectacular. 
Then stop at Two Rivers Lunch in Allagash, maybe motor up to Estcourt Station (unless you've already been to that northernmost tip of the state).

Temp was 28 at 11 last evening but the clouds were beginning to sift in, and it was 30 at 7 this morning.  Otherwise we would've been down near 20.

Usually, I stay at the Caribou motor Inn and we ride the east side near the border, Do breakfast along the way at one of the clubhouses, Lunch at Lakview, Then dinner at the Sporting Club which i hear is closed now, Then we do the west side towards portage and Escourt staion on one of the other days, I just noticed your sig Tom and had to laugh....

[kdxken]

54 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not good.

 

Take mine please. Misery mist here. For a second it looked like the sun would poke through but it's back. 

 

 

[Lava Rock]

42F. raw, cloudy. very fallish

[Snowcrazed71]

21 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Torch incoming next week. Confirmed.

Ps..... From what I'm seeing for our area next week, our temperatures look to be in the upper 50s early in the week... Then it looks like mid-50s to lower 50s Wednesday to Friday, and maybe back to around 57 ish next Saturday. 

Our average high temperature for November 3rd in our area is 53°. So I'm not seeing anything related to a torch at all next week. Maybe you saw something different when you looked but this is what I'm seeing now. 

[WxWatcher007]

51 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ps..... From what I'm seeing for our area next week, our temperatures look to be in the upper 50s early in the week... Then it looks like mid-50s to lower 50s Wednesday to Friday, and maybe back to around 57 ish next Saturday. 

Our average high temperature for November 3rd in our area is 53°. So I'm not seeing anything related to a torch at all next week. Maybe you saw something different when you looked but this is what I'm seeing now. 

Normal hi/lo at BDL on November 3 is 57/37.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  Looks like backside snow levels and upslope showery precip could coat the high valleys of the ADKs. 

Not to clog the thread, but what should I look for on the models when it comes to upslope and snow levels? Is it just 925s and wind direction?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not to clog the thread, but what should I look for on the models when it comes to upslope and snow levels? Is it just 925s and wind direction?

What elevation are you at up there?

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Go all the way to Fort Kent - Northern Door Motel, Breakfast at Rocks Cafe then head west.  If you don't mind some ungroomed trails, Deboullie is spectacular. 
Then stop at Two Rivers Lunch in Allagash, maybe motor up to Estcourt Station (unless you've already been to that northernmost tip of the state).

Temp was 28 at 11 last evening but the clouds were beginning to sift in, and it was 30 at 7 this morning.  Otherwise we would've been down near 20.

Debouile is all groomed now, so I are all the Trails to Estcourt station. It’s all groomed…and gorgeous. 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What elevation are you at up there?

1560

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Usually, I stay at the Caribou motor Inn and we ride the east side near the border, Do breakfast along the way at one of the clubhouses, Lunch at Lakview, Then dinner at the Sporting Club which i hear is closed now, Then we do the west side towards portage and Escourt staion on one of the other days, I just noticed your sig Tom and had to laugh....

Sporting club will open on special occasions a few times per winter…the fishing derby, and a few other times throughout the winter. So if you catch it right, sometimes you can grab a meal and some beverages. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Usually, I stay at the Caribou motor Inn and we ride the east side near the border, Do breakfast along the way at one of the clubhouses, Lunch at Lakview, Then dinner at the Sporting Club which i hear is closed now, Then we do the west side towards portage and Escourt staion on one of the other days, I just noticed your sig Tom and had to laugh....

They have completely renovated that place and there is a decent restaurant onsite.  We ate there last July when we were up.  There is a brewery across the street too.

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not to clog the thread, but what should I look for on the models when it comes to upslope and snow levels? Is it just 925s and wind direction?

I always look at 850mb wind for upslope... 925mb for temps and try to judge snow levels off that.  I'm not well versed in the ADK climo for upslope and blocked flow vs unblocked over there.  I think you'll need a winter or two of monitoring wind flow and moisture to see where it ends up.  Sometimes it'll be on the immediate N/W slope of the larger Adirondack park... other times it'll be unblocked and showery all the way into the eastern Adirondacks.

The mesoscale models these days are pretty darn good at projecting where the QPF will end up though... not perfect of course but can give a decent enough guess at it.  The global models are tougher because they will often spread out QPF too spatially... and what often happens is it is a more concentrated max zone.

Any time you get a system like this though, with deeper cyclonic moisture flow around a departing low, it should spread precipitation out over decent aerial coverage in the ADKs. 

[tamarack]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Debouile is all groomed now, so I are all the Trails to Estcourt station. It’s all groomed…and gorgeous. 

My one ride into there was in March 2006, late season but that winter only the St. John area had real snow.  We didn't have to break trail on the ungroomed 6-8 miles into Deboullie Pond; the real challenge was riding across to see Gardner, with temp about 30 and 1-2" new over slushy mess from the previous day's RA.  Only 2 of the 7-8 sleds had to be dug out of the slush.  With Gardner hidden in the light snow, we wisely chose not to attempt that pond.

[WinterWolf]

36 minutes ago, mreaves said:

They have completely renovated that place and there is a decent restaurant onsite.  We ate there last July when we were up.  There is a brewery across the street too.

First mile brewery. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

When does the damage from the Sou’Easter start? 

[WxWatcher007]

NYC getting smoked right now 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NYC getting smoked right now 

Fortunately, this is happening tonight and not Halloween night. 
Blah day, but hardly any rain in Greenfield today. A few light showers this morning.

[ineedsnow]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

When does the damage from the Sou’Easter start? 

At market basket in Athol and actually getting some good gust

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

At market basket in Athol and actually getting some good gust

Any fights breaking out?

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

1560

My grandfathers place in southern Quebec gets the same exact temps and weather as Saranac lake.. right on lake Lyster in Baldwin Mills right on the US Canadian line..  1,520 asl dips down just a bit from the surrounding area and it gets damn cold in winter and tons of snow! Ive seen some crazy drifts there. He's right on the south side of the lake

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Any fights breaking out?

Lol not at this one but saw the video of that other one.. crazy

[WxWatcher007]

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1220
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Areas affected...northern NJ into southern NY/Long Island and CT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301931Z - 310125Z

Summary...Heavy rain across the Tri-State Area through this
evening may result in localized flooding/flash flooding. Localized
rainfall totals over 3 inches will be possible. Rainfall near 1
inch in 15-30 minutes can be expected.

Discussion...19Z radar imagery showed a low-topped squall-line,
oriented from south to north, edging east from 40 miles east of
ACY through NYC. This line was being aided by strong low level
convergence with 45-50 kt from the SSE/SE in the 925-850 mb layer,
located north of the triple point of an occluded cyclone over the
northern Mid-Atlantic region. The line of showers has been
accompanied by 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain in 15 minutes across
northern NJ into the Five Boroughs.

Moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast into southern New England was
already anomalous as sampled by area 12Z RAOBs, with PWAT values
of 1.2 to 1.5 inches. However, OSPO's ALPW has since shown an
increase stemming from Melissa's circulation, especially near and
below 700 mb, being drawn northward into NJ and southern NY. The
continued addition of this remnant tropical moisture should allow
for an increase in rainfall efficiency and locally higher rainfall
rate potential into the early evening hours.

While the line of showers has been progressive, there is some
concern for very brief slowing/stalling given the LEWP-like
appearance off the NJ coast, which could result in a quick 1-2
inches as this line continues to advance east through the
remainder of the afternoon. As a triple point low becomes better
organized south of Long Island this evening, low level flow will
maintain a southeasterly orientation, with possible backing.
Therefore, some orographic component to lift will be added into
the equation for the higher terrain north and west of I-95,
combining with increasing right-entrance jet ascent associated
with a forecast 130 kt jet streak on the east side of the parent
upper low to the west.

Farther south and west, instability is expected to remain weak
(briefly peaking in the 500-1000 J/kg range) but perhaps
sufficient to support a few additional heavy showers from eastern
PA and southern NJ, rotating northward into the Tri-State region.

Additional rainfall may result in isolated areas of rapid
inundation of water. Given below average rainfall over the past
few weeks and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the
region, any flooding that occurs is likely to remain constrained
to urban or other areas with poor drainage.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...OKX...PHI...

 

[ineedsnow]

@WxWatcher007

You can see the surrounding area is higher in this pic.. when winds go calm the temps drop quick!