Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[jbenedet]

My climo average temps are off by about -5.

I know that whimsical “assumption” gonna take a bunch of scrutiny but it’s a simple enough exercise to work through…

If I made that change for the year, the distribution of normal, AN, and BN days and the magnitude of the anomalies I believe would better fit today’s climo. 
 

[Damage In Tolland]

We’ll see what Mesos do next 2 days 

[Chrisrotary12]

New Hampshire Mid-Am is next Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Talk about experiencing all seasons:

Tuesday: sunny 80

Wednesday: wet 60

Thursday: cold 50

 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

High of 86F today.

I'd wager Stowe has a lot of them, ha.  They are everywhere at all the $1-3 million spots... but once you get to the $10-$20+ million properties they are all indoor pools.

Here's the Kellogg's house (cereal family).  I can't even imagine that level of wealth.

Foundation upon the countless cardiovascular and/or metabolic disorder corpses laid to rest by consumption of refined grain carbohydrate technology, no doubt

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ll see what Mesos do next 2 days 

Seems to be very good consensus that we're getting a half inch to 1 inch of rain statewide on Wednesday. 

The other thing to note is there. There is a possible system for Sunday that could have tropical elements to it. Still a ways out so that can change, but if it comes up, they're saying there's a possibility that it stalls. Plus though maybe some win with that as well. That we need to keep a close eye on

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is a pretty stormy nor’easter later Sunday into Monday. AI euro is too.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is a pretty stormy nor’easter later Sunday into Monday. AI euro is too.

Ya atleast something interesting.. about time the weather has been boring

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is a pretty stormy nor’easter later Sunday into Monday. AI euro is too.

That signal has been there for a while too, it’s only become more pronounced across guidance this past weekend. Maybe a little hybrid/subtropical with some energy trying to eject out of the Gulf. Track/intensity TBD.

Of course, I’m up at WXW2 for the next week if it does come  

[SouthCoastMA]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya atleast something interesting.. about time the weather has been boring

Shitty timing though. I don't want Columbus Day weekend to be anything but boring. 

[Spanks45]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That signal has been there for a while too, it’s only become more pronounced across guidance this past weekend. Maybe a little hybrid/subtropical with some energy trying to eject out of the Gulf. Track/intensity TBD.

Of course, I’m up at WXW2 for the next week if it does come  

If correct, the OBX is going to take another one to the chin after losing 9 homes in the coastal storm/Erin situation....Hopefully what ever forms throws a ton of moisture up this way, after the weekend of course.

[Damage In Tolland]

I have doubts how far north it can get with the block up north and trough in the west . Seems like congrats mid atl 

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

If correct, the OBX is going to take another one to the chin after losing 9 homes in the coastal storm/Erin situation....Hopefully what ever forms throws a ton of moisture up this way, after the weekend of course.

I'm heading down to the Outer Banks this weekend for a wedding, ha.  

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I'm heading down to the Outer Banks this weekend for a wedding, ha.  

yikes....Northern or southern portion? The issues are Avon and south, Buxton/Rodanthe areas

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

yikes....Northern or southern portion? The issues are Avon and south, Buxton/Rodanthe areas

My cousin's have a place in Waves, NC like smack in the middle... we might be at their place on Thurs/Fri but then up north for the wedding in the Nags Head/Kitty Hawk area.

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My cousin's have a place in Waves, NC like smack in the middle... we might be at their place on Thurs/Fri but then up north for the wedding in the Nags Head/Kitty Hawk area.

Thankfully the Jughandle bridge is there, before hand that area would close with any coastal storm/on shore flow. Timing is close, but seems like, if something develops it would be more late Friday into the weekend....they have had so much erosion lately, it probably won't take much to close rt 12. I was down in Hatteras a few years ago during an early season coastal, rt 12 was closed for 3 days. Kinda scary with 4 kids, if something were to have happened and we needed to head north.

[jsw]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Seems to be very good consensus that we're getting a half inch to 1 inch of rain statewide on Wednesday. 

Yup.

These are my three quick go-to spots when rain or snow is coming:

NWS KEEN this morning:

Tuesday

Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night

Showers, mainly after 11pm. Low around 54. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday

Showers, mainly before 8am. High near 66. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

Discussion:

 

Clouds will gradually increase on Tuesday as a cold front
approaches from the west. Moisture will increase ahead of the
front as well with precipitable water values increasing to 1.25
to 1.50 inches (+2 to +3 STDEV). An upper level shortwave
passing through the southwesterly flow aloft will increase
forcing for ascent and allow for periods of rain, beginning
Tuesday afternoon for areas north and west of Albany and
areawide during Tuesday night. A rumble of thunder could occur
with some of these showers for areas north and west of Albany
Tuesday afternoon with weak instability present. Overall, most
areas should pick up between 0.50 and 1.00 inches of rain but
some higher amounts up to 2 inches could occur if any steadier
and heavier periods of rain train over an area. Nonetheless,
this will be a beneficial rain for the area which has seen
another prolonged stretch of dry weather since our last rain
event on September 25. Prior to the arrival of rain,
temperatures should still rise into the 70s to around 80 on
Tuesday, falling back to the 40s and 50s Tuesday night.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Put some thoughts down re that coastal system the Euro/GGEM/GFS are hard selling over in the tropical thread. 

Little suspect that it's being over-amplified at this range.   we'll see -

[Typhoon Tip]

One could drive from Caribou ME ot Pittsburgh PA and never see a cloud today

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Shitty timing though. I don't want Columbus Day weekend to be anything but boring. 

I'm working so wont make working so bad for me 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm working so wont make working so bad for me 

Do you still work night shift at grocery ?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Shitty timing though. I don't want Columbus Day weekend to be anything but boring. 

Yeah, it’s going to suck if we lose Sunday and Monday to rain. 

[mreaves]

24 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, it’s going to suck if we lose Sunday and Monday to rain. 

Not my preferred days but, we do need rain badly.

[SouthCoastMA]

the CMC solution could be plausible, super suppressed with a strong H pressure pressing south. 

[Snowcrazed71]

38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, it’s going to suck if we lose Sunday and Monday to rain. 

I would normally agree with you, but we've had so many great weekends for so long now, and we're in dire need of rain that I'll gladly take the rain even on a weekend ( but it will suck if someone has something planned for Sunday especially ). Not a done deal yet though, we still have the week to go to see where the chips fall for possible storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s very unlikely to come north for reasons we outlined 

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

the CMC solution could be plausible, super suppressed with a strong H pressure pressing south. 

I think that might be more due to 95L creating an escape hatch a la Humberto. 

The low isn’t exceptionally strong and may be too amplified, (read Tip’s comments in the tropical thread) but the sprawling nature of it and pressure gradient will probably bring some nasty coastal impacts depending on track. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like the party is over after tomorrow.

Weekend looks unsettled into next week.

[CoastalWx]

Stein trying to keep the party going on the euro. Ai still wet.

[Modfan2]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stein trying to keep the party going on the euro. Ai still wet.

Tough call….I could see the south coast being wet while most are cloudy and breezy and Dendy is clear with brush fires all around

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you still work night shift at grocery ?

Lol I never worked grocery but did work night shift.. I'm on days now and work around here.. I left my job in Westfield about 6 months ago. It was a tough drive working 12 hours then 3 hours of driving a day was a bit much.