Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development

[Floydbuster]

 

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Thanks for posting.

 This NY Post headline is so misleading. If the Fujiwhara Effect is strong enough, that would actually be the best way for the SE to avoid a landfall. Thus, I hope Fujiwhara is strong. The stronger combined storm on those models/ensemble members doing that avoids the US in the vast majority of cases.
 
The NY Post is not a good source for news, regardless. It borders on tabloid.

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

That is just a silly, clickbait headline.

[dbullsfan]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That is just a silly, clickbait headline.

consider the source, unfortunately people will believe it as truth. 

[GaWx]

18Z Euro: hits near NC/SC border:

[Wannabehippie]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for posting.

 This NY Post headline is so misleading. If the Fujiwhara Effect is strong enough, that would actually be the best way for the SE to avoid a landfall. Thus, I hope Fujiwhara is strong. The stronger combined storm on those models/ensemble members doing that avoids the US in the vast majority of cases.
 
The NY Post is not a good source for news, regardless. It borders on tabloid.

Borders? It is tabloid. They thrive on page Six stuff.

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That is just a silly, clickbait headline.

 Headline is so irresponsible and hype casting.  Why even post that here?

[Wannabehippie]

94L isn't going to do anything until whatever circulation that is there, clears Hispaniola.

[BooneWX]

Local western NC talk here: a lot to track and a lot to determine, but if the circulation meanders into SC, it’s another terrible scenario for an area still reeling from Helene. Easterly, upslope flow and a steady fetch of moisture from the Atlantic…not good. We’ve luckily had very dry antecedent conditions but that can change rapidly with plenty of convective activity expected ahead of the circulation. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

94L isn't going to do anything until whatever circulation that is there, clears Hispaniola.

 The best bet for the SE to avoid a hit and the potential flooding catastrophe would be if 94L were to move away from there more slowly than the model consensus and let Humberto get to a higher latitude than it. Also, the same would probably be the case if Humberto were to move more quickly. Then hopefully Humberto would pull 94L away.

[Wannabehippie]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The best bet for the SE to avoid a hit and the potential flooding catastrophe would be if 94L were to move away from there more slowly than the model consensus and let Humberto get to a higher latitude than it. Also, the same would probably be the case if Humberto were to move more quickly.

The other would be a Fujiwara effect to pull an Imelda away from the coast.

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The other would be a Fujiwara effect to pull an Imelda away from the coast.

That’s what I meant when I mentioned those scenarios. It appears the best chance for a Fujiwara to do that is for Humberto to be at a higher latitude than 94L. This is based on viewing 100s of ensemble members from different runs along with operationals.

[GaWx]

Per WxBell (may be different from others like TT): 

-Of the 18Z 30 GEFS/50 EPS members, I count ~25% that bring a lowest SLP of <1000 mb onto the E coast, but I see no lowest SLP <990 mb on the GEFS on land.

-There do appear to be 7 EPS members that are hurricanes/<990 mb hitting.

[WxWatcher007]

I think it’s still worth plenty of caution to look too much into intensity guidance given the lack of a center. We do know there will be a favorable environment window early, followed by likely hostile conditions. But how much that impacts Imelda will depend on how structurally sound any inner core is. 

[WolfStock1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

18Z Euro: hits near NC/SC border:

Sorry but that's a hilarious picture.   Looks like some kind of stoned cookie monster or something.

[Coach McGuirk]

Both Euro and GFS have a tropical system landfall at SC/NC Monday.  

[Coach McGuirk]

It's noting now but could be huge.  I remember Charlie in 2004 was nothing and came out of nowhere and was a small 155 MPH hurricane at landfall.