September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[RU848789]

21 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

the models really dont have a lot of rainfall on them

Most of the 0Z and 6Z models have 0.2-0.5" of rain from 2-8 pm today for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region (when we're both interested for the RU game and my son's wedding), but many have lollipops of 1" or more, so as usual it all depends on where the heavy downpours hit - won't be everywhere, but they'll likely be fairly widespread.  Most of the models also have 1/2" or more after 8 pm.  Below is the WPC rainfall forecast through 7 am Sunday.  

[winterwarlock]

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Most of the 0Z and 6Z models have 0.2-0.5" of rain from 2-8 pm today for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region (when we're both interested for the RU game and my son's wedding), but many have lollipops of 1" or more, so as usual it all depends on where the heavy downpours hit - won't be everywhere, but they'll likely be fairly widespread.  Most of the models also have 1/2" or more after 8 pm.  Below is the WPC rainfall forecast through 7 am Sunday.  

well the hrrr, nam and gfs are unimpressive for the 2-7 timeframe

[wdrag]

34 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

the models really dont have a lot of rainfall on them

?

[binbisso]

[binbisso]

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

?

i am specifically talking about the 2-7 pm timeframe not the whole event map

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

i am specifically talking about the 2-7 pm timeframe not the whole event map

Alright... I'll post some info for all to digest in 3 min.

[winterwarlock]

my concern focuses on the rutgers game which has a 330 kickoff.....looking like its probably rain free until at least 6 according to the hrrr, the nam looks spotty with an earlier start

[wdrag]

Regarding this afternoon I95 corridor:  Not knowing when football games start etc... but be prepared for delays.  Regarding Philly... your call as always.  I would not risk outdoor celebration if it was me, except maybe the initial ceremony.  

NO guarantees as to what will happen but here is info from SPC and late arriving HRRR.

 

Watch for convection NYC area developing 1230-2P, then the big squall line forming 2PM e PA and marching e from there.

See graphics... cherry picked indeed but stuff I use to make decisions. I may still get a NOW thread going at 130PM.  I do think there are going to be travel delays due to ponding on roads and 1-2.5" in spots by 8PM.  PWAT pretty high... near 1.8".

Graphics imply be alert... there will be variations. Consider downside risk outside your personal interest and thinking of impact on surroundings.

 

Last night SPC HREF hourly for 5P.

The SPC outlook prob for thunderstorms 4-8P (70% I95 corridor

13z HRRR gust graphic 5P (55 MPH se PA)

13z HRRR 5P reflectivity (might be too slow)

12z NAM 5P.

 

 

 

 

[anthonymm]

16 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Last “warm” night of the season maybe? 

October will have some sultry days/nights.

[RU848789]

38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Regarding this afternoon I95 corridor:  Not knowing when football games start etc... but be prepared for delays.  Regarding Philly... your call as always.  I would not risk outdoor celebration if it was me, except maybe the initial ceremony.  

NO guarantees as to what will happen but here is info from SPC and late arriving HRRR.

 

Watch for convection NYC area developing 1230-2P, then the big squall line forming 2PM e PA and marching e from there.

See graphics... cherry picked indeed but stuff I use to make decisions. I may still get a NOW thread going at 130PM.  I do think there are going to be travel delays due to ponding on roads and 1-2.5" in spots by 8PM.  PWAT pretty high... near 1.8".

Graphics imply be alert... there will be variations. Consider downside risk outside your personal interest and thinking of impact on surroundings.

 

Last night SPC HREF hourly for 5P.

The SPC outlook prob for thunderstorms 4-8P (70% I95 corridor

13z HRRR gust graphic 5P (55 MPH se PA)

13z HRRR 5P reflectivity (might be too slow)

12z NAM 5P.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, our key time, a few miles south of Philly is 4-5 pm when the outdoor ceremony was planned (after that it's all indoors) and while the HRRR is showing precip holding off down here (and for 95 up through CNJ) until about 6 pm, the 12Z NAM and RGEM, so far, are showing at least 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm (presumably mostly closer to 5 pm), which would be a mess for an outdoor wedding that ends at 5 pm.  Tough call, but we've already decided to move the ceremony indoors, which has the bonus of getting a bunch of people over 55 out of the heat and humidity.  Thanks, as always, for your expertise.  

[uofmiami]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Models show very little rain for Suffolk county. The beat goes on 

GFS has you covered 

[forkyfork]

i wonder if smoke will be an issue for daytime convection and our best rain comes with the better lift tonight

[psv88]

15 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

GFS has you covered 

Saw that. Meh

[Stormlover74]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2042.html

[wdrag]

37 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Yeah, our key time, a few miles south of Philly is 4-5 pm when the outdoor ceremony was planned (after that it's all indoors) and while the HRRR is showing precip holding off down here (and for 95 up through CNJ) until about 6 pm, the 12Z NAM and RGEM, so far, are showing at least 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm (presumably mostly closer to 5 pm), which would be a mess for an outdoor wedding that ends at 5 pm.  Tough call, but we've already decided to move the ceremony indoors, which has the bonus of getting a bunch of people over 55 out of the heat and humidity.  Thanks, as always, for your expertise.  

Thank you.  12z SPC HREF is saying it will happen up and down the I95 corridor.  Bring your swimmies if you're outside and dry clothes for inside.  80% prob of watch issuance in latest convective outlook up and down I95.  Will probably issue NOW-OBS thread 130PM if not sooner.  This will be significant for some folks.

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

You should be good. 

Thanks

[SACRUS]

 

86 / 70 clouds pushing east - race to 90 in the hottest spots.  Onshore flow this week keeps it near normal, overall warmer by nexy weekend / mid month and beyond.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2018)
NYC: 97 (1881)
LGA: 96 (2018)
JFK: 93 (2023)


Lows: 

EWR: 48 (1938)
NYC: 48 (1924)
LGA: 53 (1988)
JFK: 52 (1963)

Historical:

1667: The “dreadful hurricane of 1667” is considered one of the most severe hurricanes ever to strike Virginia. On the first, this same storm was reported in the Lesser Antilles. The hurricane devastated St. Christopher as no other storm had done before. The "great storm" went on to strike the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Area crops (including corn and tobacco) were beaten into the ground.

 

1776: Called the Pointe-à-Pitre hurricane, this storm is one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes on record. While the intensity and complete track are unknown, this storm struck Guadeloupe on this day, killing 6,000. 

1881 - Forest fires in Michigan and Ontario resulted in 'Yellow Day' in the northeastern U.S. Twenty villages in Michigan burned, and a total of 500 persons were killed. Fires caused 2.3 million dollars in losses near Lake Huron. Candles were needed at the noon hour. (David Ludlum)

 

1881: Forest fires in “The Thumb” of Michigan and Ontario resulted in “Yellow Day” over the New England states. Twenty villages and over a million acres burned in Michigan. The smoke from these fires caused the sky to appear yellow over several New England cities. Twilight appeared at noon on this day. 

1929 - Iowa's earliest snow of record occurred as a few flakes were noted at 9 AM at Alton. (The Weather Channel)

 

1933: The remnant low of the Treasure Coast Hurricane dumped 10.33" of rain in Charleston, which is the second-highest 24-hour rainfall total on record for the downtown station. The storm produced wind gusts of 51 mph and also spawned a tornado near the city.

1987 - Thunderstorms produced more than seven inches of rain in Georgia. Four persons drowned, and two others suffered injury, as three couples attempted to cross Mills Stone Creek at Echols Mill in their automobile. Smoke from forest fires in California and Oregon spread across Utah into western Colorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the north central and northeastern U.S. Thirty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Joseph MO with a reading of 38 degrees. A low of 44 degrees at Indianapolis IN was their coolest reading of record for so early in the season. The mercury dipped to 31 degrees at Hibbing MN and Philips WI. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - An early afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 104 mph at Winterhaven, FL, flipping over four airplanes, and damaging five others. The high winds also damaged a hangar and three other buildings. A cold front produced strong winds and blowing dust in the Northern High Plains, with gusts to 54 mph reported at Buffalo SD. Powerful Hurricane Gabrielle and strong easterly winds combined to create waves up to ten feet high along the southern half of the Atlantic coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2003: Hurricane Isabel was first named on September 6th, 2003. It would reach Category 5 status and eventually make landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2.

 

2017: Category 5 Hurricane Irma affected the US Virgin Island and Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds were at 180 mph when the storm hit St. Thomas & St. John. Catastrophic damage was reported over the US Virgin Island & significant damage over Puerto Rico, especially over Culebra. 

[SACRUS]

[RU848789]

A little ominous...SPC just issued a mesoscale discussion stating that severe weather watches are likely for our area for this afternoon/evening.  

 Mesoscale Discussion 2042
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 061556Z - 061730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is possible by early
   afternoon. Issuance of one or more watches is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Filtered heating is ongoing late this morning from
   parts of NJ/eastern PA into parts of New England, to the east of a
   substantial cloud shield and embedded weak convection. Morning
   soundings depict generally poor midlevel lapse rates, but relatively
   rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F) and
   continued heating will result in MLCAPE increasing to the 1000-1500
   J/kg range. Scattered surface-based storm development is expected as
   soon as early afternoon, as a cold front begins to impinge upon this
   destabilizing environment.

   Deep-layer shear is already rather strong across the region, and
   will continue to increase in response to a notable mid/upper-level
   shortwave trough approaching the lower Great Lakes region. Initial
   development may quickly evolve into a few supercells, though
   deep-layer flow/shear roughly parallel to the front may eventually
   result in a tendency toward storm clustering and possible QLCS
   development. Some increase in low-level shear/SRH with time could
   support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells,
   especially where surface winds remain locally backed near a weak
   surface wave that will traverse the front this afternoon. Isolated
   hail may also occur with any supercells. Otherwise, scattered
   damaging wind will become increasingly possible with time, as storm
   coverage increases and low-level lapse rates steepen.

   One or more watches will likely be issued by early afternoon in
   order to cover these threats.

 

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1964357439077200126

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Yeah, our key time, a few miles south of Philly is 4-5 pm when the outdoor ceremony was planned (after that it's all indoors) and while the HRRR is showing precip holding off down here (and for 95 up through CNJ) until about 6 pm, the 12Z NAM and RGEM, so far, are showing at least 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm (presumably mostly closer to 5 pm), which would be a mess for an outdoor wedding that ends at 5 pm.  Tough call, but we've already decided to move the ceremony indoors, which has the bonus of getting a bunch of people over 55 out of the heat and humidity.  Thanks, as always, for your expertise.  

You made the right choice!  You also got people under 55 out of the heat and humidity 

[Picard]

Some stuff may be developing, or develop later, but isn't what we are currently seeing already quite a bit north of the models?

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Picard said:

Some stuff may be developing, or develop later, but isn't what we are currently seeing already quite a bit north of the models?

Certainly what is on radar now is moving briskly along to the NE.  Not like the other night with slow moving training batches of rain....at least so far.

[Picard]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Certainly what is on radar now is moving briskly along to the NE.  Not like the other night with slow moving training batches of rain....at least so far.

We need the southern part to develop right.  It did the other night.  These set ups are always a bit iffy to me, I always tell people to watch for things popping up, but not to plan their day around it.

[Brasiluvsnow]

I just looked at the radar ps New City Rockland County checking in and I see a few things popping up as I type just to my west ,,,,,I hope it holds off until tonight

[SACRUS]