September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[Stormlover74]

Made it to 87 here

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is as good as you're going to get at this time of year. Watch us have 100-degree heat at this time next year.

you never know; i went out on the sound porgy fishing last year in early oct or so and just threw some ice in a bucket; it got so hot by noon the ice melted and i had to scramble lest the fish spoil; had to empty out the food cooler and toss the fish in the remaining ice; as it was a soft cooler, ice is a no no and it leaked out all the way home, which was a 3 hour ride back to nj....

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, New York City saw its biggest one- and two-day rainfall since August 20 and August 20-21. The guidance has continued to increase rainfall amounts for later Saturday into Sunday with some of the guidance showing the potential for an inch or more of rain in places. As a result, this could be New York City's biggest rainfall since 2.64" fell on July 14. That rainfall was highlighted by an hourly figure of 2.07".

September 6 will also be the 17th anniversary of a widespread rainstorm that produced daily record figures across the New York City region and nearby southern New England. Daily records set in 2008 included:

Bridgeport: 2.90"
Danbury: 5.96"
Hartford: 5.22"
Islip: 2.29"
New Haven: 3.31"
New York City-Central Park: 3.26"
New York City-JFK Airport: 2.51"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 3.21"
Newark: 3.64"
Poughkeepsie: 2.20"
Providence: 3.95"
Westhampton: 2.32"
White Plains: 4.42"

In terms of temperatures, tomorrow will be another warm day. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. A few of the warmer spots could top out in the upper 80s.

Following the passage of a strong cold front, temperatures will mainly top out in the 70s during the daytime and fall into the 50s at nighttime in New York City through at least the middle of next week. Additional showers or rain is possible around midweek.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +17.71 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.231 today. 

 

[wdrag]

May start a thread at 630AM Saturday for OBS-NOWCAST fairly widespread svr and a few Possible FF along I95 corridor.  Model trends important and so am not committed yet but I think we're going to be pretty interested in the activity, especially for SEPT.

SVR threat seems larger than the FF due to the recent dryness on and east of I95.  

However NNJ - central NJ inside of I95...  be on your toes and no hanging out on stream banks once this system gets going. There were very sharp rises (and falls) of small streams last evening .  Might be more extreme tomorrow.   Aquiet period Sat evening before the widespread moderate rains with embedded thunder occur overnight Sat. 

Eastern LI probably not too much til maybe e Sunday morning 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Last “warm” night of the season maybe? 

[donsutherland1]

The 0.48" rainfall at Bridgeport today broke the daily record for September 5. The old mark of 0.44" was set in 2012.

[doncat]

Warmest day in a while...up to 87° high, had 0.40" rain overnight.

[qg_omega]

Smoke?

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Smoke?

You couldn't tell by looking at the sky this afternoon?

[winterwarlock]

89

 

Just missed today

[steve392]

We getting wildfire smoke in our area?  Sunset was kinda incredible in the smokey skies

[IrishRob17]

The smoke is coming from the Pacific NW this time, the hrrr has it clearing out tomorrow into Sunday. 

[psv88]

83 today. Beautiful 

[Stormlover74]

52 minutes ago, steve392 said:

We getting wildfire smoke in our area?  Sunset was kinda incredible in the smokey skies

And the moon is orange 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

And the moon is orange 

Definitely an orange tint to it tonight.

[winterwx21]

Made it to 87 here today. Could see 90 tomorrow if the storms don't come in too early. I see 0z HRRR hits this area hard. Looks like an interesting day for potential severe and flash flooding. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

6 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Last “warm” night of the season maybe? 

I think there are a couple more.

WX/PT

[SACRUS]

Highs (9/5)
     

 

EWR: 88
New Brnswck: 88
PHL: 88
TEB: 86
TTN: 86
BLM: 85
ACY:  85
LGA: 83
NYC: 82
ISP: 81
JFK: 81

[wdrag]

No thread from myself: 

Looks good for 1-3" I95 corridor iso 4.  Few SVR 2P-8P.  This welcomed rain will be a little further east than Friday.  Rain ends W-E Sunday. 

 

[bluewave]

This weekend will probably be the last shot for a while to get some much needed heavier rains. Models have us drying out again next few weeks in the is very erratic rainfall pattern with only lighter events possible.

The warm spots will make a run on 90° today. Then a cooler pattern next week. 

90° heat starts building to our west mid-month. So it’s possible we see more upper 80s and lower 90s again mid to late month.

SEP 8-15

SEP 15-22

[wdrag]

No thread from myself: 

Looks good for 1-3" I95 corridor iso 4.  Few SVR 2P-8P.  This welcomed rain will be a little further east than Friday.  Rain ends W-E Sunday. 

 

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

No thread from myself: 

Looks good for 1-3" I95 corridor iso 4.  Few SVR 2P-8P.  This welcomed rain will be a little further east than Friday.  Rain ends W-E Sunday. 

 

NWS has up to 1", but obviously this can vary depending on strength/location of storms.  We're almost certainly going to move our son's wedding ceremony (4-5 pm roughly) indoors in SNJ (about 5 miles south of center city Philly), since we have to make that decision essentially now.  NWS graphic below.  The one thing that makes me wonder, though, is the HRRR is consistently not showing any rain in this area before about 6 pm, but the HRRR is often wrong.  The rest of the models from 6Z are all showing some showers between 2-5 pm and after that too.  

[psv88]

Models show very little rain for Suffolk county. The beat goes on 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

 

No thread from myself: 

Looks good for 1-3" I95 corridor iso 4.  Few SVR 2P-8P.  This welcomed rain will be a little further east than Friday.  Rain ends W-E Sunday. 

 

We need 2-3" of well needed rain. This could save the foliage season 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Yard sale is underway,,,,,,hoping the rain holds out til at least 2 pm or later ----- people began coming to buy stuff at the crack of dawn, lol

[Stormlover74]

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Yard sale is underway,,,,,,hoping the rain holds out til at least 2 pm or later ----- people began coming to buy stuff at the crack of dawn, lol

You should be good. 

[winterwarlock]

the models really dont have a lot of rainfall on them

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

the models really dont have a lot of rainfall on them

For you this is true

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

For you this is true

im going to the Rutgers game so worried about heavy rain and lightning delay but really the modelling doesnt seem to be matching some of the hype and the models seems all over the place on timing..such as the hrrr which is later and some others earlier.  This looks way less than the Thursday event which of course the models got wrong too