September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[coastalplainsnowman]

17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The oefficient of determination for December is very weak (0.013):

Here's the scatter diagram:

The coefficient of determination is almost zero for seasonal snowfall (almost no relationship) at 0.004: 

Here's the scatter diagram:

For cases when August had a monthly mean temperature below 74°, 41.4% of winters saw 30" or more snow. For all other cases, 37.8% of the following winters saw 30" or more snowfall.

Thanks Don!  Unlike meteorology, I actually know statistics so this is great.  Much appreciated.

[Sundog]

The lack of rain is very annoying 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The lack of rain is very annoying 

Dry begets dry.   I think 3 of the last 4 summers/fall here have been dry.

[Sundog]

58 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Dry begets dry.   I think 3 of the last 4 summers/fall here have been dry.

Extra dry falls ruins the foliage. 

It sucks

[donsutherland1]

Since 1869, there were 26 cases prior to 2025 where August saw < 2" of rain. Just over two-thirds (69%) went on to see a drier than normal (historical 1869-2024 baseline) September. Of those dry September cases, 61% then saw above normal rainfall in October, but 39% experienced another month of below normal rainfall (again using the historic baseline).

Anticipating that the question might be raised concerning snowfall in the winter that follows, the shaded regions had the highest frequency of < 20", < 15", and < 10" snowfall. The non-shaded regions had the highest frequency of 30" or more snowfall (with or without the August precipitation constraint). Nevertheless, the statistical relationship is weak.

[donsutherland1]

Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through tomorrow. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s with lows in the 50s outside New York City and low 60s in New York City. It will turn somewhat warmer late in the week with highs on Thursday through Saturday reaching the lower and possibly middle 80s before another cooler air mass moves into the region. 

A system could bring some showers on Friday. Another round of showers is possible late Saturday into Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -1.42 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.304 today. 

 

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Extra dry falls ruins the foliage. 

It sucks

Last year beautiful  colors in my parts

[doncat]

Same split first two days of month, 78/56 . Now 12 straight days with no measurable rain.

[Sundog]

54 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Last year beautiful  colors in my parts

I went to Bear Mountain last year and drove on 7 Lakes Drive and it looked like crap