Hurricane Erin: 160 MPH - 915mb - W @ 16

[WxWatcher007]

931.9mb extrapolated on the latest pass with a 143kt FL wind. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Uh, is Erin now outside the cone?

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Kevin Reilly]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Uh, is Erin now outside the cone?

It is close, but I would say yes.  At the very least it's on the FAR southern part of the cone pretty much moving west. Erin will do what she wants right now for the time being until the weakness in the ridge opens up. If anyone else wants to chime in great I am just comparing the NWS cone to the current satellite loops including water vapor maps. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI OI OI

ERIN ERIN ERIN

SCORE SAM CAT 5 GOALS

[Windspeed]

Erin's eyewall is now quite intense, noted by the persistent ring of CGs tracing it. It may be a while before outer banding consolidates enough to form an outer eyewall band, so continued deepening may continue throughout Saturday. As such, I don't think we have seen Erin level out. Another 15 to 20 mb drop in pressure is quite possible this afternoon. I expect Erin to reach Category 5 intensity by this evening prior to any leveling off and its first eyewall replacement cycle to start doing its thing.

[BooneWX]

Looking at satellite imagery this morning, you’d think this storm is somewhere just east of the Philippines. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Looking at satellite imagery this morning, you’d think this storm is somewhere just east of the Philippines. 

Especially given today’s date

storms in the Atlantic are usually pathetic like a soggy Yorkshire pudding this time of year innit 

[NorthHillsWx]

The eye just moved into San Juan’s radar range and it is a perfect donut 

[Windspeed]

We're very fortunate this CV hurricane developed at an initial higher lattitude as it passed through MDR. As luck would have it, Erin's track will avoid direct impacts on the Antilles, though we need to watch for training bands in the southern circulation causing potential flooding concerns in Puerto Rico and the DR/Haiti as it passes by to the north. Otherwise, there still remains some uncertainty as far as downstream impacts on far eastern Canada. I think Erin will pass far enough west now to avoid direct impacts on Bermuda. Not that they can't handle indirect impacts. Obviously, ocean swells and beach erosion for the US eastern seaboard from Florida to Maine will be an issue. Erin should eventually become a very large hurricane to produce large swells. But I think we are getting off quite lucky otherwise here. Erin is now an ACE machine to pump up stats prior to heading into peak season.

[hawkeye_wx]

Now 925 mb (both extrap and dropsonde)

[NorthHillsWx]

160kt SFMR with 145 kt FL wind. We might have ourselves a 5

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Erin is now an ACE machine to pump up stats prior to heading into peak season.

 Due to Erin ACE is now rapidly rising with 2025 about to cross median (of last 75) and should cross mean tomorrow. 2025 could reach top 20 by Mon and top 15 by Tue or Wed.

[BooneWX]

The eye just moved into San Juan’s radar range and it is a perfect donut 

Wow


.

[NorthHillsWx]

That was a well-timed pass for the ages

[NorthHillsWx]

FL was just shy of 150kts and with SFMR more than supportive of a 5 in both SW and NE eyewalls I personally think there’s enough for an upgrade. Min pressure tanking through the 920s also firmly supports it

[hawkeye_wx]

Now 922 mb extrap, 156 kts flight level wind.

The inner core remains extremely tight, with no sign of any outer wind max beginning to develop.

[BarryStantonGBP]

COME ON ERIN

ALL OF WEMBLEY IS CHEERING FOR YA

I 

[NorthHillsWx]

What a freaking specimen 

[SnowenOutThere]

926 drop according to tropical tidbits 

[Eskimo Joe]

Cat 5 at 11am?

[hawkeye_wx]

919 mb extrap, 156 kts FL wind

[Windspeed]

Based on the last pass, I would be surprised if the NHC doesn't upgrade to at least 160 sustained and 922 mb at 11 AST. Keep in mind that Erin is embedded in a higher background pressure regime at its location, so anything around 925 mb or lower is definitely supportive of Category 5 intensity.

[yoda]

138 
WTNT45 KNHC 161433
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025
 
Erin has continued to rapidly strengthen during the past 6 h and is
now a category 4 hurricane.  Reports from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has
fallen to 925 mb inside a 6 nm wide eye, and flight-level winds in
the northern eyewall support surface winds in the 130-135 kt range.
The initial intensity is increased to 135 kt, a 70-kt increase since
24 h ago.  The aircraft, along with land-based radar data from Sint
Maarten, report that an outer eyewall is starting to form. However,
this has yet become apparent in the aircraft wind data.
 
The hurricane has been moving a bit to the left of the previous
forecast track with the initial motion of 280/15. The track guidance
suggests that Erin will turn back to the west-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed during the next 6-12 h on the south side
of a subtropical ridge. This motion should then  continue through
the weekend, taking the core of Erin to the north of the eastern
Caribbean Islands through Sunday.  After 36 h, the western side of
the ridge is expected to weaken, due to a series of shortwave
troughs moving through the mid-latitude westerlies, and that should
cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north. The
track guidance models are in general agreement with this scenario,
but there remain some differences on where, when, and how sharply
Erin makes the northward turn. The new track forecast is shifted to
the south during the first 12-24 h based on the initial position and
motion, and it lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope.
From 24-72 h there track has been shifted westward due to an overall
shift in the guidance, and the track is similar to the previous
track at 96 and 120 h.
 
The development of the outer eyewall suggests that rapid
intensification should end during the next several hours.  However,
Erin is expected to reach category 5 status before this occurs, and
the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 145 kt.
 After 12 h, the environment becomes a little less favorable, with
increasing northwesterly shear and possible dry air entrainment.
This should lead to gradual weakening of the cyclone through 72 h,
although superimposed on this trend will be fluctuations due to
eyewall replacement cycles.  After 72-96 h, the cyclone is expected
to move into the westerlies where the shear is stronger, and a
faster weakening trend is expected at that time. The new intensity
forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance at 12 h and
near the intensity consensus after that.
 
Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.
 
2. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are
likely in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight
and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today
through Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeast Bahamas
 
3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.
 
4.  Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high
surf by the middle part of next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 19.7N  62.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 20.1N  64.7W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 21.0N  66.8W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 22.3N  68.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 23.5N  69.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 24.9N  70.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 26.4N  70.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 30.6N  70.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 35.7N  66.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

[Windspeed]

Ahh, Beven went a little conservative with the pressure and 155 sustained. I don't know if we're going to get another pass. Lamaroni.


Edit: No, we are getting one more pass. Score. Erin should not be done deepening. This should be the money pass.

[BarryStantonGBP]

COME ON ERIN

WE’RE WATCHING YOU WHILE WE’RE WAITING FOR THE RYANAIR TO FLY US TO IBIZA IT’S HAPPY HOUR IN MANCHESTER AIRPORT SPOONS

SHOW US WHAT YOU’VE GOT ERIN

Hurricane Erin	Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive
...CATEGORY 4 ERIN STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.7°N 62.8°W Moving: W at 17 mph Min pressure: 923 mb Max sustained: 155 mph

Disappointed the nonces over at the NHS didn’t claim cat 5 innit

[Emmett_Brown]

Pressure still dropping, around 916mb on that last pass

 

[Emmett_Brown]

Officially Cat 5 now

[Eskimo Joe]

I respect the conservative nature of NHC. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

GOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLL

 

rricane Erin	Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... 11:20 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.7°N 62.8°W Moving: W at 17 mph Min pressure: 917 mb Max sustained: 160 mph