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August 2025 Summer Thread


Torch Tiger
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13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Here, it would come with zero forcing / lifting features... 

Right :lol:

I'm not so sure though we could ever muster up that much MLCAPE here. I mean that EML progged is about as stout as an EML you'll see really (700-500 lapse rates ~ 8.5-9 C/KM!!!!, and will be atop dews well into the 70's. I think we'll eventually see a moderate risk there. Anyways, when we get EMLs they tend to be on the weakening side and are generally ~7-7.5 C/KM. But I mean how common it has become to push 70+ dews in here (and earlier in the season now) its feasible we could get a setup with MLCAPE maybe pushing 4000-4500. If we ever saw something larger with a legit setup...we may legit blow down like 30% of the trees in the region

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

80/63

Getting a little dewy.

But we’ll allow it, vibes up with the Roman Anthony extension for Red Sox.

they're 19W/6L in their last 25 games ... . 

Really, if you look at the numbers ... a lot of this torrid pace began around the time or shortly after two things happened:   

Roman came up from the minors; 

Bello and Buehler started pitching better.  

Everything else being more or less plausible, those two factors appear to correlate rather well. 

So ...yeah, they should scare Roman away like they typically do with talent.  heh

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

they're 19W/6L in their last 25 games ... . 

Really, if you look at the numbers ... a lot of this torrid pace began around the time or shortly after two things happened:   

Roman came up from the minors; 

Bello and Buehler started pitching better.  

Everything else being more or less plausible, those two factors appear to correlate rather well. 

So ...yeah, they should scare Roman away like the typically do with talent.  heh

#3... Devers was traded

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Hopefully the Red Sox go deep into October...would eliminate having to deal with one month of hockey. 

But not that I have alot (or any) expertise in this, but I'm shocked CSU maintained their above average hurricane forecast with today's update. It's slightly down from April but maintained from the June update. They must be going for a big peak/back half. 

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Three was a lot of talking about the dismantling of NWS. So much disinformation 

NEW: The NWS receives permission to hire up to 450 meteorologists/hydrologists/radar technicians after DOGE-related cuts. Agency also given a public safety exemption from federal hiring freeze.

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I think that's in the plausible reason group.   Sox started winning more so when Roman came up and pitching improved.   The trade predated by a bit more than that - but yeah it's plausibly related.   Dynamics and such. It's tougher one because they were in the midst of a 5 or 6 game W streak, but then went into a slump where they were 4 and 11 shortly after he left.  That gave the allusion ( at least ...) that it hurt the clubhouse and soldiering.     Roman came up from the minors ...June 11 I think...    so it kind of goes both way.  

I just see the biggest wins streaks of the season happening since (Roman came up and pitching improving)/2  ...but if we wanna include Devers, whom I was starting to not like anyway Ha...sure.  They're all doing better in hitting for that matter.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Three was a lot of talking about the dismantling of NWS. So much disinformation 

NEW: The NWS receives permission to hire up to 450 meteorologists/hydrologists/radar technicians after DOGE-related cuts. Agency also given a public safety exemption from federal hiring freeze.

Canning 600 and then hiring 450. What great business. TACO Trump caves again.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Three was a lot of talking about the dismantling of NWS. So much disinformation 

NEW: The NWS receives permission to hire up to 450 meteorologists/hydrologists/radar technicians after DOGE-related cuts. Agency also given a public safety exemption from federal hiring freeze.

I mean what is getting rid of 566 out of ~4000 but dismantling? It's been a miserable stretch since February, and I haven't even had it as bad as some other offices.

Thankfully tremendous public support and pressure from Congress has granted us that public safety exemption and the ability to hire back 450 positions. However that is going to come with pretty radical changes to the structure of the NWS as well. What those will be is above my pay grade, but there is more coming (not all bad necessarily).

My general feel for this is that NWS knew budgets weren't ever going to get appreciably bigger. They created a plan to reorganize the operations model. The election happened and DOGE came in with a sledgehammer and forced the NWS to pause reorganization because they lacked the staff to do it the way they had planned. Now based on briefing the right people we have the okay to move forward with reorganization as long as we can get staffing back up. I don't have hard evidence of that, but I have enough pieces of information to put that together.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean what is getting rid of 566 out of ~4000 but dismantling? It's been a miserable stretch since February, and I haven't even had it as bad as some other offices.

Thankfully tremendous public support and pressure from Congress has granted us that public safety exemption and the ability to hire back 450 positions. However that is going to come with pretty radical changes to the structure of the NWS as well. What those will be is above my pay grade, but there is more coming (not all bad necessarily).

My general feel for this is that NWS knew budgets weren't ever going to get appreciably bigger. They created a plan to reorganize the operations model. The election happened and DOGE came in with a sledgehammer and forced the NWS to pause reorganization because they lacked the staff to do it the way they had planned. Now based on briefing the right people we have the okay to move forward with reorganization as long as we can get staffing back up. I don't have hard evidence of that, but I have enough pieces of information to put that together.

Wait, who said "dismantled"  ?    

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering if it can get hot underneath the telecon suggestion. 

That's a bad bad sign for the CC deniers   ha

A lot of warmth coming over the top. Some subtle signs of HP perhaps in srn Canada with a weakness over the east coast...but it's a warm look overall. If there is a door, probably 90 still inland. 

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's hr 354. How is that a colossal failure at that range? Too many Wxidiots on twitter.

Lol... Given the time frame, I'd call it a success if even a stray thunderstorm formed 354 hours out...  Seeing a constant flow posts like me; and they we wonder why the science gets mocked...  If this keeps up, RFK Jr is going to get appointed to head NWS!

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