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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


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Just got back from a riveting walk and I’m literally soaked in sweat. Now I have fresh glass of hard lemonade at the ready and a pre-moistened chair to unwind on my back porch. This is the type of humidity you don’t want to miss..the days that we live to tell our children and children’s children about. A summer of yore that is passed down through the ages, one we shall never forget!

77/75 

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I'm not fully sold, but tomorrow does seem like a day to watch in SNE. There could be some localized flash flood risk. Maybe higher end. Here was BOX and WPC this afternoon:

BOX

Models still indicate favorable ingredients for heavy rainfall.
Broad anticylonic flow will advect high PWATs into the region. In
some instances values will approach 2.5 inches. Values this high are
around +2.5 STD above climatology and are certainly a significant
signal for heavy rain. Unsurprisingly model soundings have also
hinted at favorable conditions for localized flash flooding. The
most notable signals include weak winds through the column, deep
warm cloud depths, and tall skinny CAPE profiles. HREF ensembles
have started highlighting areas in our CWA with 5-15% probabilites
for 6 hour precipitation totals to locally exceeding the 100 year
annual return interval. Not every area will see heavy rainfall
tomorrow, but any storm that forms in this environment will be
capable of producing rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour.
Communities most at risk include poor drainage and urban areas with
little in the way of permeable surfaces.

 

WPC

 

...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Post-tropical cyclone Chantal will be exiting east of Cape Cod to
start the period as it continues to get caught up in increasing
southwesterlies downstream of a trough approaching from the Great
Lakes. This trough will continue to translate eastward through the
day, but will be slow to advect due to downstream Bermuda-type
ridging. Between these two features, SW flow will remain prevalent
over the area, with 850-500mb winds being nearly unidirectional
from the W/SW at 15-20 kts. This will result in a continued
extremely moist environment with PWs likely eclipsing 2" from
eastern VA through southern New England Tuesday afternoon,
coincident with a plume of SBCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg.

Into these impressive thermodynamics, a shortwave embedded within
the mean flow will traverse northeast ahead of a cold front and
along a surface trough, providing additional ascent atop the
already impressive convergence on these boundaries. This suggests
showers and thunderstorms will become widespread, which is
additionally supported by high-res CAM simulated reflectivity.
Storms that develop will move very slowly, and Corfidi vectors
collapsed to just around 5 kts will support backbuilding and
training echoes along the surface trough and front. With warm cloud
depths potentially eclipsing 14,000 ft, this will support efficient
warm-rain processes and rain rates above 2"/hr at times. Where
training occurs, this could result in total rainfall in excess of
3", with instances of flash flooding possible across much of the
I-95 corridor from Richmond, VA to Portland, ME, and a slight risk
has been added for this area.
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This is some of the craziest lightning in a while.  Map has multiple strikes within a mile.  Dog is going nuts.  These are bright flashes followed by immediate chest thumping concussions.

Closing in on 1" of rain too.  2.50"/hr rate.

Zeus is just cranking bolts down into the center of Stowe.

Untitled.jpg.41e46853257888f57c7999aa8cbc01a5.jpg

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, I don't think I've ever seen anything like this.  Just seeing jagged lightning go to the ground, over and over and over right out the window.  Sounds like WWIII.

Zeusinpowderville

Too long?

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, I don't think I've ever seen anything like this.  Just seeing jagged lightning go to the ground, over and over and over right out the window.  Sounds like WWIII.

Absolutely nothing here. I think I heard one distant rumble and that was it. 

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32 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Absolutely nothing here. I think I heard one distant rumble and that was it. 

The joy of hit and miss thunderstorms.

We are right around 1" of rain, stratus inner tube full but nothing in the outer ring.  Looks like MVL ASOS went offline two hours ago after 1.49" and I know they had another round after that.

Saw a bunch of 1.75-2.25" stations over on the west side of Mansfield in Jericho and Underhill.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The joy of hit and miss thunderstorms.

We are right around 1" of rain, stratus full but nothing in the outer ring.  Looks like MVL ASOS went offline two hours ago after 1.49" and I know they had another round after that.

Saw a bunch of 1.75-2.25" stations over on the west side of Mansfield in Jericho and Underhill.

You guys up north are a magnet for moisture in the summer, almost the same way we have our predictable moisture train much of the winter and early spring. I have a hunch tomorrow we’ll get our turn though. The air has that electric feel to it like something is about to pop.

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