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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


Typhoon Tip
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15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

90/70 and can't buy a thunderstorm.

Seems like Thursday is explosive but the models are skimpy of the QPF nodes you typically see with that.  UKMET's okay ..sorta. But the Euro and GFS ..NAM and whatever aren't impressive.

Yet, the synoptic cinema has cold mid level with rim arriving after we've cooked CAPE.  Just in principle some one some where's getting a tropopause rolling 50k foot top baseball thrower

actually ... hm, DPs are lower now that I check.  I thought those were supposed to be mid 60s but the Euro's dry.  OH, wait. never mind...   Yeah no this doesn't add up.  The Euro should nuke

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems like Thursday is explosive but the models are skimpy of the QPF nodes you typically see with that.  UKMET's okay ..sorta. But the Euro and GFS ..NAM and whatever aren't impressive.

Yet, the synoptic cinema has cold mid level with rim arriving after we've cooked CAPE.  Just in principle some one some where's getting a tropopause rolling 50k foot top baseball thrower

actually ... hm, DPs are lower now that I check.  I thought those were supposed to be mid 60s but the Euro's dry.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I edited that

My sense is that's got a fair shot at being an upgrader

Only limiting factors I see towards greater coverage are the "lower dewpoints" - 60's aren't bad but would like to see like 68-70+ and llvl convergence looks a little weak. Anyways, steep lapse rates aloft and good height falls so can't sleep on it

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Also looks like some dewpoint pooling ongoing with a theta-e ridge overhead. MLCAPE ~2000 not bad given the poor mid-level lapse rates. Any severe risk though should be extremely localized. DCAPE is meh with pretty poor 2-6km lapse rates and llvl shear is not much. So just going to be some torrential rain (poor drainage flooding risk) and maybe some good CGs

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