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June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Saturday could sneakily become a low risk severe day ... 

I think I see what's been going on - and the Euro may have been superior in this regard.  The flow's more progressive, and the high that is passing N of the region through tomorrow, is faster moving off S of the Maritime in the prior Euro runs than the GFS, which in delaying that departure ...yeah, it's mass fields are holding damming in longer...

This 12z GFS run inched a little N with the warm front again - now between the Pike and Rt 2 at 18z.  Two runs ago it was near NYC

But here's the thing, the Euro's front was ironically slower, and the GFS is now faster with the trailing cold front.  I don't think the lapse rates are good given this ( but haven't seen soundings...) but when you dawn with warm front escape, then have a cool boundary into western zones later in the day, that's a typical severe set up - in principle.   There's also a right exit--> entrance relay as a 500 mb S/W perturbation moves through NNE in the afternoon.

Sure could be! I was thinking about you when I was looking at that earlier haha. I knew you would provide some in depth analysis on this.

Good call Kevin yesterday 

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Guidance warming and humidifying for the weekend here.  Today is pretty comfortable.  PTSD from months of occasional misery mist had me worried but now I feel confident of a summer weekend with the risk of showers/storms.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

wife and daughter had tickets to see Hozier at Fenway Tuesday night. They couldn’t attend and we tried to sell them for less than face value. No takers due to temps. Wound up giving them to our niece for free.  She is a warmanista. Lol

Wife and I went on Monday night (her idea, of course).  She’s a big Hozier fan.  It was pretty rough.  But survivable lol.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Saturday could sneakily become a low risk severe day ... 

I think I see what's been going on - and the Euro may have been superior in this regard.  The flow's more progressive, and the high that is passing N of the region through tomorrow, is faster moving off S of the Maritime in the prior Euro runs than the GFS, which in delaying that departure ...yeah, it's mass fields are holding damming in longer...

This 12z GFS run inched a little N with the warm front again - now between the Pike and Rt 2 at 18z.  Two runs ago it was near NYC

But here's the thing, the Euro's front was ironically slower, and the GFS is now faster with the trailing cold front.  I don't think the lapse rates are good given this ( but haven't seen soundings...) but when you dawn with warm front escape, then have a cool boundary into western zones later in the day, that's a typical severe set up - in principle.   There's also a right exit--> entrance relay as a 500 mb S/W perturbation moves through NNE in the afternoon.

We want tors and a lot of them. 

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17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I like his music, but this is why we have arenas (TD Garden etc).  Fenway blows. 

All I could think about was, hey it’s hot and I’m uncomfortable… but imagine having to perform with high energy for two hours straight in HI of 100F.  Dude was using a towel to dry himself after each song.  Major props for performing in that.

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