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June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike


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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Oh this is wonderful, I want to see this even more than having a Cat 3 making landfall near JFK!

I already got the 30 inch snowstorm so that's off my bucket list....

Is that a 107 near JFK?

Wait, you live in Oceanside and you WANT a cat 3 to hit like 10-15 miles west of where you live?? 

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The solution is to average out NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA and then you get the full of range of weather in New York City (which covers 5 boroughs). I believe LGA runs too hot now, look at how elevated their lows are compared to everyone else and it has the highest concentration of traffic now, which is much worse now than it was during the 30s-50s period when NYC was hotter (as was JFK.)

 

 

Where does LGA have its weather station now? Those tarmacs can definitely skew any temperatures upwards. 

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The ASOS at LGA is situated to the west of any runways, and since our heatwaves come from westerly/SWERLY winds, I don't think the runway traffic would have any effect on the airports highs during hot stretches. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

You just might get that by Tuesday since the Euro has offshore flow and compressional warming right onto Long Island.

IMG_3846.thumb.png.c24965781d8729c4148f6bfe2ca1d8b7.png

 

IMG_3845.thumb.png.faf627be9a5fc10516cbc520ad6df147.png

 

I could see around the Southern State really roasting with the compressional heating in the afternoon. I have to think some kind of seabreeze develops with waters still in the mid 60s. I don’t think that cool water gets denied all day. 

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43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Approaching thunderstorm a short time ago. It was rapidly falling apart.image.jpeg.791f8332587d912585266f711b67e448.jpeg

Came through strong at Glen Island Juneteenth event. Pouring, lots of thunder, brief break and rain again.

 

 

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A sustained period of above normal temperatures is now underway. Although temperatures will be somewhat cooler than they were today tomorrow and Saturday, the heat will likely come roaring back on Sunday.

Excessive heat is likely Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. There remains some uncertainty about the magnitude of the heat. The ECMWF is showing potential June monthly record heat for parts of the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was -13.36 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.764 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (1.7° above normal). 

 

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