Drought Buster From The Gulf?

[arlwx12]

And an elevated excessive rainfall risk:

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM.  Nice dousing  over eastern burbs as well if it verifies.

[aldie 22]

30 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM.  Nice dousing  over eastern burbs as well if it verifies.

That's disappointing 

[Rhino16]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Model guidance really waffling. Genuinely wonder if the lack of RAOB data is hurting.

It’s that time of year too. Spring patterns can be rough sometimes.

[stormy]

23 hours ago, CAPE said:

Higher terrain to the west, esp upslope areas. Probably not in the metros.

12z Euro probably has the right idea.

LOL Gulf of America in a NWS AFD. Pathetic.

 

 

[aldie 22]

This thing is gonna hold off until tomorrow morning isn't it?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 5/11/2025 at 5:45 PM, CAPE said:

Higher terrain to the west, esp upslope areas. Probably not in the metros.

12z Euro probably has the right idea.

LOL Gulf of America in a NWS AFD. Pathetic.

 

LOL indeed...though to be fair (and trying not to tread the politics line too much!) using "Gulf of America" is almost certainly a requirement now, no matter what one may think of that terminology.  I suppose one can get around it by simply saying "the Gulf region" or something like that.  Getting back on the topic of weather, this upcoming soaker is much needed (obviously!).  Will be interesting to see how some of the heavier amounts work out.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM.  Nice dousing  over eastern burbs as well if it verifies.

Any Mets wanna tell me what hiking the shannondoah tomorrow and Wednesday is gonna be like? I want to take waterfall pictures

[Ji]

This thing is gonna hold off until tomorrow morning isn't it?

It better. I told our baseball league to move the game from Tuesday to Monday.

[WxUSAF]

39 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

This thing is gonna hold off until tomorrow morning isn't it?

Looks like 3-6z start time this evening south to north across the region

[stormy]

only .06" since 1:30.....................  Will this be the usual under- performer???????????????

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like 3-6z start time this evening south to north across the region

I'm worried that as soon as the heavy snow rates start, we'll be right near the back edge and it won't be anything more than a low-end advisory event that will melt by Thursday morning...

...

...

Oh wait, sorry, I was stuck in January again!!  It's May 12th, please proceed as normal!!  

[Bob Chill]

Man it's been dumpin down here lol. Start time kept getting pushed back leading in but it doesn't matter. Every wave and pulse has heavies mixed in. I wouldn't worry to much about a bust (except for a small area N of Winchester ). 

Tomorrow has convective potential and that will likely bring some warnings to the blue ridge into the piedmont. Some people already have over 3". My yard about half that. Glad it's coming in prolonged waves. We really needed it. Been a dust bowl since early April. Not kiddin either. Dustier than Tony Montana's upper lip and stuff 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Man it's been dumpin down here lol. Start time kept getting pushed back leading in but it doesn't matter. Every wave and pulse has heavies mixed in. I wouldn't worry to much about a bust (except for a small area N of Winchester ). 

Tomorrow has convective potential and that will likely bring some warnings to the blue ridge into the piedmont. Some people already have over 3". My yard about half that. Glad it's coming in prolonged waves. We really needed it. Been a dust bowl since early April. Not kiddin either. Dustier than Tony Montana's upper lip and stuff 

You mean south of Winchester.

[TowsonTownT]

On 5/11/2025 at 5:45 PM, CAPE said:

Higher terrain to the west, esp upslope areas. Probably not in the metros.

12z Euro probably has the right idea.

LOL Gulf of America in a NWS AFD. Pathetic.

 

Genuinely wondering why. Worried about their job, or are some all in on the agenda?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TowsonTownT said:

Genuinely wondering why. Worried about their job, or are some all in on the agenda?

President Trump signed an Executive Order mandating that all government agencies recognize the gulf as the Gulf of America. This was followed up with a Congressional law. As a result, Federal agencies must update this reference. Neither the private sector nor any foreign nation or individual are bound by the order.

[LongRanger]

nothing here so far, those green areas on radar have been splitting west and east as they head north

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Down here near RIC…. Where’s this deluge we were supposed to be getting? Only a couple light showers today. Road pavement still dry. 

[Rhino16]

1 hour ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Down here near RIC…. Where’s this deluge we were supposed to be getting? Only a couple light showers today.

It’s out here in the mountains.

edit: hopefully it’s gone before graduation Thursday…

edit2: imagine if this were snow…

[EastCoast NPZ]

This is shaping up as a monumental disappointment.   11PM and still not a drop of rain.  Radar looks awful.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

It’s out here in the mountains.

edit: hopefully it’s gone before graduation Thursday…

edit2: imagine if this were snow…

If this were gonnabe snow, and you had very cold ground, you would be under some SERIOUS Winter Storm Warnings that would encompass most of the Mid Atlantic Region! You would be looking at at LEAST two feet of snow, perhaps three feet with lollies to four feet.

You wouldn't even need MillvilleWx to write up the KLWX AFD's. George BM and I would do this puppy full justice.

It would be one heck of a BONANZA for snow enthusiasts, most snow weenies would be flying all over. Many would be up for days and days and days tracking every evolution of the models.

I'd be GLUED to this sub.

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM.  Nice dousing  over eastern burbs as well if it verifies.

Mountains are gonna get NAM'MED with 12-13 inches of rain. Man, if THAT were all snow in January.........

[dailylurker]

Radar looks great for everyone. Finally a good soaker.