Winter 2025-26

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Spot On Weather has had some good analysis and is liking 2000 - 2001 for an analog. Sorry if this was posted - I thought it was interesting 

 

 

That’s another year that underproduced. I am not saying it should have been a blockbuster like it was to our north. We will always struggle and be on the southern or western fringe of a lot of storms in a Nina. But the fact they all totally skunked DC/Baltimore was somewhat bad luck. I think if you repeat that seasons pattern it’s another with a 75% chance we would do better. Again not like 30”+ better but I bet that kind of pattern yields a near median snowfall outcome more often then what happened that season. 

[psuhoffman]

Some Nina’s overproduce. 1999-2000 for instance had no business being an above normal snowfall winter given the predominant long wave pattern. We just got lucky. So conversely when that season is in an analog set I warn people a repeat of that pattern could easily result in a single digit or worse snowfall season. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s another year that underproduced. I am not saying it should have been a blockbuster like it was to our north. We will always struggle and be on the southern or western fringe of a lot of storms in a Nina. But the fact they all totally skunked DC/Baltimore was somewhat bad luck. I think if you repeat that seasons pattern it’s another with a 75% chance we would do better. Again not like 30”+ better but I bet that kind of pattern yields a near median snowfall outcome more often then what happened that season. 

Man if we hit climo snow regionwide with a -1 to -2 temp departure, I think that'd be solid.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 10/24/2025 at 8:28 PM, WxUSAF said:

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

 

On 10/30/2025 at 10:00 AM, WxUSAF said:

Not that it counts for anything, but I’ll again reiterate my preference that we delay any droolworthy pattern until Dec 15 or later. Climo improves so much through the first few weeks of winter. Shoveling feet of pattern for Thanksgiving just helps keep the leftovers chilled on the front porch. 

How about the week of 12/12?

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Way better than Thanksgiving week

[midatlanticweather]

Ha - He did an update today to look at the years as well 

 

 

[Chris78]

With that pattern in late November into December, Local ski resorts should be able to get going the first half of December. 

Maybr the first week of December for places like Wisp and 7 springs and mid December for White tail and Liberty.