Winter 2025-26

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Spot On Weather has had some good analysis and is liking 2000 - 2001 for an analog. Sorry if this was posted - I thought it was interesting 

 

 

That’s another year that underproduced. I am not saying it should have been a blockbuster like it was to our north. We will always struggle and be on the southern or western fringe of a lot of storms in a Nina. But the fact they all totally skunked DC/Baltimore was somewhat bad luck. I think if you repeat that seasons pattern it’s another with a 75% chance we would do better. Again not like 30”+ better but I bet that kind of pattern yields a near median snowfall outcome more often then what happened that season. 

[psuhoffman]

Some Nina’s overproduce. 1999-2000 for instance had no business being an above normal snowfall winter given the predominant long wave pattern. We just got lucky. So conversely when that season is in an analog set I warn people a repeat of that pattern could easily result in a single digit or worse snowfall season. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s another year that underproduced. I am not saying it should have been a blockbuster like it was to our north. We will always struggle and be on the southern or western fringe of a lot of storms in a Nina. But the fact they all totally skunked DC/Baltimore was somewhat bad luck. I think if you repeat that seasons pattern it’s another with a 75% chance we would do better. Again not like 30”+ better but I bet that kind of pattern yields a near median snowfall outcome more often then what happened that season. 

Man if we hit climo snow regionwide with a -1 to -2 temp departure, I think that'd be solid.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 10/24/2025 at 8:28 PM, WxUSAF said:

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

 

On 10/30/2025 at 10:00 AM, WxUSAF said:

Not that it counts for anything, but I’ll again reiterate my preference that we delay any droolworthy pattern until Dec 15 or later. Climo improves so much through the first few weeks of winter. Shoveling feet of pattern for Thanksgiving just helps keep the leftovers chilled on the front porch. 

How about the week of 12/12?

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Way better than Thanksgiving week

[midatlanticweather]

Ha - He did an update today to look at the years as well 

 

 

[Chris78]

With that pattern in late November into December, Local ski resorts should be able to get going the first half of December. 

Maybr the first week of December for places like Wisp and 7 springs and mid December for White tail and Liberty. 

[WxUSAF]

Webb becoming increasingly bullish on Dec-Jan at least 

 

[mitchnick]

New Cansips starts Dec temps with this link below. You can scroll forward from there and switch to H5..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=1

Dry for December, but around normal precip Jan and Feb.

Close up for easter US:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=1

Fairly typical Nina with February the warmest of the 3.

 

[mitchnick]

Cansip gives us our well deserved Modoki Niño for next year too!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025110100&fh=11

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cansip gives us our well deserved Modoki Niño for next year too!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025110100&fh=11

With our luck we get a 97-98 sequel rather than a 15-16.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I do not like the fact that the Gulf of Alaska's ssta's have cooled considerably over the last month.

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips starts Dec temps with this link below. You can scroll forward from there and switch to H5..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=1

Dry for December, but around normal precip Jan and Feb.

Close up for easter US:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=1

Fairly typical Nina with February the warmest of the 3.

 

h5 looks pretty favorable for a cold Dec. Aligns with the extended products. Jan has the same general idea but not quite as cold at the surface. Love how these seasonal products tend to have the majority of the NH with warm anomalies and one relatively small area of cold lol. Seems to always be the case. At least its close to us!

 

[Steve25]

On 10/31/2025 at 11:37 AM, psuhoffman said:

That’s another year that underproduced. I am not saying it should have been a blockbuster like it was to our north. We will always struggle and be on the southern or western fringe of a lot of storms in a Nina. But the fact they all totally skunked DC/Baltimore was somewhat bad luck. I think if you repeat that seasons pattern it’s another with a 75% chance we would do better. Again not like 30”+ better but I bet that kind of pattern yields a near median snowfall outcome more often then what happened that season. 

I’d say our odds of being on the good luck side as opposed to the bad luck side are in our favor just because we’re due. 9 consecutive below average winters and nearly 10 years since the last 6+ inch snowfall in Baltimore(at least IMBY). Even being in an area where we need a lot of things to go right, this has been an absolutely brutal stretch of years. Things have to swing in our favor at some point. 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Steve25 said:

I’d say our odds of being on the good luck side as opposed to the bad luck side are in our favor just because we’re due. 9 consecutive below average winters and nearly 10 years since the last 6+ inch snowfall in Baltimore(at least IMBY). Even being in an area where we need a lot of things to go right, this has been an absolutely brutal stretch of years. Things have to swing in our favor at some point. 

Bob Chill's WDI is the primary element that suggests a big snow winter is incoming for the region. LFG!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Bob Chill's WDI is the primary element that suggests a big snow winter is incoming for the region. LFG!

Well, it has now been 10 winters since our last KU-HECS type storm, so there ya go!  I don't know what the "average" time is between such events, but I think historically it's been less than that(?).

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Well, it has now been 10 winters since our last KU-HECS type storm, so there ya go!  I don't know what the "average" time is between such events, but I think historically it's been less than that(?).

From 1990-2016 the trend of every 6-7 years was remarkably consistent. As was the trend of getting a footer every 3-4 years. But since then that hasn't meant jack diddly, smh. No reason to bank on it happening until, well...it happens, lol Tbh I wouldn't even want to entertain the idea of the WDI finally winning until we roll the dice with a niño again!

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From 1990-2016 the trend of every 6-7 years was remarkably consistent. As was the trend of getting a footer every 3-4 years. But since then that hasn't meant jack diddly, smh. No reason to bank on it happening until, well...it happens, lol Tbh I wouldn't even want to entertain the idea of the WDI finally winning until we roll the dice with a niño again!

Keep in mind there are places in our forum that have gotten a foot of snow since 2016, even excluding the western highlands. Oddly its been the low elevation far eastern areas, multiple times. In my yard I have had multiple events in the 6-10" range. Not quite a 'footer'.

[bncho]

I asked ChatGPT to pull up a list of 12+" snowstorms at ANY of the airports (DCA, BWI, IAD, RIC) from 1970 to now. Apparently there was a 1 in 4.3 chance that you'd see a 12"er in a given season during then. So we are due, but apparently it's not astronomically rare—right now we're 1.66 standard deviations away from the mean, meaning there's about a 5-10% chance of a drought this long happening. For example, look at 1983-93 or 1993-2003.

[GaWx]

On 11/1/2025 at 7:08 AM, mitchnick said:

Cansip gives us our well deserved Modoki Niño for next year too!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025110100&fh=11

Hey Mitch,

 I’d love to see it! But a huge grain of salt is advised. One year ago the CANSIPS was forecasting a Modoki Nino for now, about which I posted last year and got excited. Obviously, that failed miserably and I’ve learned from it.

 One year ago, CANSIPS forecasted this for Oct of 2025:

 

 Compare that to the new CANSIPS for Oct of 2026: the entire globe looks so similar that it almost looks like a copy and paste although it’s slightly warmer in Nino regions.

Hopefully this new CANSIPS for next Oct won’t also verify way off!

@Carvers Gap@donsutherland1@Daniel Boone

[Stormchaserchuck1]

October SOI came in at +12.. which was the highest monthly reading since December 2022! Here's how that rolls forward to the following Winter:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Kind of a big trend on today's models to -NAO conditions in the medium/long range. Yesterdays models had the NAO very positive for the next 15 days. I like that trend, I think we're wanting to go colder this year. Not huge Winter cold but at least a decent shift to normal Winter conditions unlike so many Winters in the last 10 years. 

[Daniel Boone]

55 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Kind of a big trend on today's models to -NAO conditions in the medium/long range. Yesterdays models had the NAO very positive for the next 15 days. I like that trend, I think we're wanting to go colder this year. Not huge Winter cold but at least a decent shift to normal Winter conditions unlike so many Winters in the last 10 years. 

It is sure beginning to look that way Chuck. An overall Normal Winter would be a plus for most. That is if you like Snow.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey Mitch,

 I’d love to see it! But a huge grain of salt is advised. One year ago the CANSIPS was forecasting a Modoki Nino for now, about which I posted last year and got excited. Obviously, that failed miserably and I’ve learned from it.

 One year ago, CANSIPS forecasted this for Oct of 2025:

 

 Compare that to the new CANSIPS for Oct of 2026: the entire globe looks so similar that it almost looks like a copy and paste although it’s slightly warmer in Nino regions.

Hopefully this new CANSIPS for next Oct won’t also verify way off!

@Carvers Gap@donsutherland1@Daniel Boone

Haha.  Wow.  Yeah, that definitely looks like a default mode on the model.  Nearly identical.  It may be right, and we are due El Nino conditions...but that looks identical to a level that if two middle schoolers both had that on a test which required prediction, they would be busted for cheating.  Good catch.