Winter 2025-26

[bncho]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but was one of the reasons the PDO skyrocketed last winter due to the much warmer waters in Nino 1+2? I'm asking this because I'm uncertain about how hostile the PDO will be for this winter.

[frd]

Seasonal ECMWF guidance predicts a prominent Alaskan ridge this winter, which would allow the polar jet stream to deliver cold air to the northern United States. However, a relatively strong eastern ridge is shown — stronger than last winter — which could shield the East Coast.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1975561499180736754

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

Seasonal ECMWF guidance predicts a prominent Alaskan ridge this winter, which would allow the polar jet stream to deliver cold air to the northern United States. However, a relatively strong eastern ridge is shown — stronger than last winter — which could shield the East Coast.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1975561499180736754

 

70s in January then?

[Weather Will]

7 hours ago, frd said:

Seasonal ECMWF guidance predicts a prominent Alaskan ridge this winter, which would allow the polar jet stream to deliver cold air to the northern United States. However, a relatively strong eastern ridge is shown — stronger than last winter — which could shield the East Coast.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1975561499180736754

 

Well maybe some SE ridge will move the storm track just far enough NW so we can get snow rather than dry, cold air this winter in the NW burbs...

[Bob Chill]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, some are just dooming. Not entirely without reason. I’m concerned about this winter for our sakes, but I don’t think it will be a total shutout like 22-23 (those are still rare).

I do think not only we’ll average +3 over the entire season, but also see at least a couple of 2-week -epo/+pna window of opportunities for a decent event or two. Cold air source regions are starting to build and ahead of where they were last year, so not all hope is lost. 

As usual we're aligned with our logic... which may not be a good thing this year... hahaha. Imho,  if this winter is going to be friendly we probably need a good start in Dec and that's certainly possible in a nina. If Dec is a warm whiff I kinda doubt a backloaded comeback. 

I'm rooting for big snow/cold out west in Nov. When I lived in CO, nina hot starts usually had some sustained +PNA stuff in Dec. Which was frustrating then but perspective and things. I'll be using the Jackson Hole indicator in Nov. If they're getting dumped on mid/late Nov, we'll have some chances here in Dec.

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but was one of the reasons the PDO skyrocketed last winter due to the much warmer waters in Nino 1+2? I'm asking this because I'm uncertain about how hostile the PDO will be for this winter.

September PDO’s value was higher than last September’s. -2.x instead of -3.x

[mitchnick]

21 hours ago, frd said:

Seasonal ECMWF guidance predicts a prominent Alaskan ridge this winter, which would allow the polar jet stream to deliver cold air to the northern United States. However, a relatively strong eastern ridge is shown — stronger than last winter — which could shield the East Coast.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1975561499180736754

 

There is no warm warm forecast that guy won't embrace and no cold forecast he won't find reasons to poo-poo. Of course, that doesn't mean he won't hype cold/snow if it's in the forecast because business is business after all.

[Scraff]

LFG!! I don’t who this guy is, but maybe @JI in disguise?

 

“SNOWBIRDBOB WEATHER PREDICTIONS — FINAL 2025–26 SNOWFALL OUTLOOK (Updated Oct 1st) 

We’ve been digging deep into global weather patterns, ENSO signals, analog years, and long-range model data, and today we’re releasing our final snowfall outlook for Winter 2025–26.

Here’s what we’re expecting:

 Above Normal Snowfall:
Much of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and interior Northeast is favored to see a snowy winter. Frequent storm tracks and strong cold intrusions will fuel above normal totals, with some areas possibly seeing significantly above normal snowfall.

 The Winter Battle Zone:
From Central Arkansas through Tennessee, into the Carolinas and Virginia, this is the corridor where warm Gulf moisture and frequent Arctic fronts collide. These areas will see a mix of ice, snow, and wintry messes, and frequent roller coaster ride of weather and temps.

 Average to Slightly Above Normal:
Across the northern Plains into the northern Rockies, snowfall should be close to normal, with some areas leaning above normal depending on storm track alignment.

 Below Normal Snowfall:
The Southwest U.S., southern Plains, and much of California into Nevada are projected to see below average snowfall. This region will likely lean drier overall with less cold air intrusion.

 The Big Drivers:

A Neutral ENSO with a brief dip toward weak La Niña early winter before balancing back to neutral.

Strong blocking signals showing up in the high latitudes at times, which could drive cold outbreaks into the central & eastern U.S.

Past analog winters (2013–14, 2014–15, 2017–18, 2019–20, and 2024–25) line up well with this year’s setup.

 Bottom line: If you’re in the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, or Northeast, get those shovels ready. If you’re in the Winter Battle Zone, prepare for some wild storms with snow & ice mixing in”