Winter 2025-26

[Eskimo Joe]

37 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big time +EPO this October.. models are showing it for the 2nd half of the month. EPO carries very well from October to January-February

From your mouth to the ear of the weather gods. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

From your mouth to the ear of the weather gods. 

Actually it would mean +EPO October would beget +EPO Jan-Feb. The map is showing -EPO as the default state, but the correlation has both signs considered. 

We needed a +PNA/-EPO October, like 2002. The Pacific H5 has >+0.2 correlation, or 60% chance to roll forward to the Winter, which is more than usual. 

[Steve25]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Might as well go 2017-2024. It’s not just since 2020 that things have been below average. 
 

It’s wild to think Baltimore hasn’t seen anything close to a real snowstorm in about 10 years, yet it feels like we’re punting on the odds of one occurring this upcoming winter. That’s not even negative thinking, it’s just realistic given the setup. Seems like even the most optimistic outlook would say we would need to piece together multiple different smaller events to get near or above average snowfall. 
 

I know a lot of us will still be hoping for a rare major snowstorm in a La Niña, and maybe the further we get away from January 2016, the more likely we get lucky with some funky setup just because we’re “due.” It just kind of sucks that hope is already pretty drained before we even get to November. 

[IronTy]

11 hours ago, frd said:

The message is clear - head to Florida if you want to see snow!  What, did they get 1/8" of snow one year vs the normal 1/16" every five years which turned them into a snow town?  Who made that map, terrible.  Oh I see WaPo in the lower corner.  That tracks.  

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

The message is clear - head to Florida if you want to see snow!  What, did they get 1/8" of snow one year vs the normal 1/16" every five years which turned them into a snow town?  Who made that map, terrible.  Oh I see WaPo in the lower corner.  That tracks.  

Southeast LA over into the Panhandle got 6-12" of snow last year. A new state record was set near Pensacola for 24hr snowfall. It was a freak event back in January

[Bob Chill]

On 10/3/2025 at 5:15 PM, WxUSAF said:

Most recent Ninas in the last 20 years have included at least one cold and snowy period of 2-4 weeks. Although much of the rest of the winter is pretty meh. Based on ENSO and other factors, I think one of the “good” Ninas is probably the ceiling for this year. But a dead ratter is also well within the realm of the possible.

Being honest, I'm feeling underwhelmed with my prelim thoughts. So far everything has the feel of a slow start, couple brief but potentially exciting periods Jan/Feb, and lots of boring stuff in between. The flavors of 05-06 and 08-09 come to mind but I'm just guessing.

One thing that's nearly certain is some sort of "unexpected persistence" will happen with little lead time or analysis. That kind or stuff is what keeps me out of making any kind of definitive calls from way out in time. No matter how much early season analysis is done, a piece of winter personality bucks consensus/traditional thinking. What that will be this year (if at all) is anyone's guess. My optimistic side says the AO/NAO will play nice more often than being hostile. Especially the NAO. A legit blocky winter can offset a lot of nina crappiness. I sure don't like look of Pac SSTAs so far but that's just one piece of the puzzle 

[IronTy]

4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Southeast LA over into the Panhandle got 6-12" of snow last year. A new state record was set near Pensacola for 24hr snowfall. It was a freak event back in January

That's right, forgot about that.  I wonder why they chose to start at 2008 and not 2010?  I also wonder how the numbers would play out if you tossed the record setting 09-10 season?  I'm impressed, I'm sitting at about 80% of average according to their map so I guess I can't complain.  

[bncho]

got a feeling this'll be similar to last winter in the way that we had no idea what was coming for us... not saying it'll snow 50 inches or even 20 for that matter but it'll be a regression towards the mean after  snow droughts we've been having