May 2025 General Discussion

[Spartman]

Can't get any worse, right?

[Chicago Storm]

another nice month on tap.

[Spartman]

14 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

another nice month on tap.

Another nice month? April was a washout. 

Even with a garbage blocking pattern taking place this weekend into next week....

[King James]

Yeah I wouldn’t call April nice. Had some warmth but a lot of winds, clouds, and days that never really materialized. An average April but not a nice April IMO . Still waiting for that really great spring stretch of weather

[A-L-E-K]

kicking off the month with another soak, lots of flowers and the northside in full bloom right now

[CheeselandSkies]

To me a bad April is like 2018 when it was still snowing regularly almost until the 20th.

However, a really good April needs at least one threat into this region (that verifies, not Monday's overhyped trash).

[cyclone77]

Underperformer here with only 0.38" overnight.  

Looks pretty dry the first half of May.

[hawkeye_wx]

0.31" here overnight, maybe a bit better than expected.  I was able to fill my rain barrel before we head into the long dry stretch.

[Jackstraw]

This Spring has felt like the first "normal" Spring in a long time. Yes it's been a little wetter in some areas but at least its not gone from cold to broiler in a week. It seems like the past few years we almost skipped Spring and went straight into summer. This Spring reminds me of the Springs of my youth in Indiana so far. Now the "Springs" of my youth in Apple Valley CA, thats a different story lol. 

[Chicago Storm]

Another nice month? April was a washout. 
Even with a garbage blocking pattern taking place this weekend into next week....

sucks 2 b u.

[madwx]

up to 0.79" this morning with more showers throughout the next 2 days. 

[A-L-E-K]

catching a few popups

[Spartman]

12z Euro (HINT: Most of that falls through next week): 

12z GFS:

[Cary67]

8 hours ago, King James said:

Yeah I wouldn’t call April nice. Had some warmth but a lot of winds, clouds, and days that never really materialized. An average April but not a nice April IMO . Still waiting for that really great spring stretch of weather

Definitely this Saturday went from sunny in mid 60s to mid 50s probably cloudy and possible rain. No bueno for outdoor music

[SchaumburgStormer]

Finally cashed with a nice rain, 1.06" overnight

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Extended looks wonderful here from a temperature perspective. We could use some precipitation. 5.48” since January 1st and daily averages are rising quickly. 

[Spartman]

Cutoff low associated with the Omega Block this weekend into next week? Definitely.

But back-to-back cutoff lows late next week? That's got to be an insult to injury. Time to start thinking about writing off the month already? 

IND:

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

The long term period will be characterized by a somewhat stagnant
pattern featuring a couple of cutoff upper level low pressure
centers, which will impact the area over the weekend into early next
week, with the second following mid to late week.

This will lead to seasonably cool and dreary conditions through the
weekend into Monday, with near constant chances for showers and
occasionally a few thunderstorms. As the first low departs, a break
in rain chances is expected Monday night into Tuesday night before
the threat for showers returns Wednesday onward.

Differences in model handling of the blocky pattern and particularly
the second low pressure system leads to lower confidence and thus
lower PoPs later in the forecast period.

Temperatures will moderate mid to late week as the mid to upper
level cold pool associated with the first low departs, though as
with precipitation chances, uncertainty is higher in this regard, as
some guidance shows a connection to a longwave trough developing
with the second low, which could allow another intrusion of cooler
air into the region.

Nonetheless, the story of the next week or so will be temperatures
near to below normal and frequently damp and dreary conditions.

ILN:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface wave will slowly exit to the east Saturday night, taking
widespread showers with it. However, behind the wave, a cut-off upper
level low will remain wobbling over the Ohio Valley Sunday through
Tuesday. Cool air aloft associated with the cut-off low will bring
mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers during the day along with
below normal temperatures.

The low will slowly shift off to the east into mid-week. Guidance is
understandably uncertain with what follows in this blocky pattern.
One potential solution is another cut-off low to replace the first
(i.e., cool and damp). However, differences in placement of this
second upper low could lead to different sensible weather, so will
keep chance PoPs and near-normal temperatures until there is a
little more agreement in the guidance.

 

[A-L-E-K]

[Baum]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

From LOT AFD Highlights yesterday at this time:

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND   AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Ugly miss and turn of events.

[Baum]

Climo dictates always temper your forecast and expectations in Early May to the side of a closed upper low versus ridging. Heck, even into early June I don't trust the upper low to win the battle.

[A-L-E-K]

par for the course this time of year for sure, anything other than drought is ok by me, just glad it's green

[Brian D]

~ 1/2" of rain so far around the TH area, with close to an 1" around the DLH area. Still raining pretty good. Just a blah, wet day, but some rather pleasant, seasonably warm conditions on tap for the 1st week of May. 

[michsnowfreak]

Took this cloud pic at dusk last night. They were more bark than bite, but I thought the pic was cool.

[Chicago Storm]

On 4/30/2025 at 12:20 PM, Chicago Storm said:

another nice month on tap.

i troll spartman, and then guidance flips.

i see how it is...

[Powerball]

15 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

^^^Nasty work...

[Spartman]

19 hours ago, Baum said:

From LOT AFD Highlights yesterday at this time:

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND   AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Ugly miss and turn of events.

Yep, weekend's gonna suck for sure.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

On 5/2/2025 at 5:30 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Go west, young man. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Spartaman is not going to like the Old Farmer’s Almanac outlook for the summer. Hot and dry pretty much everywhere, except in Ohio and surrounding areas. At least it’ll still be hot - although with all that rain, you have to assume it would be more from warmer minimum temperatures.
 

[nvck]

This is looking good for chasing in the plains these weeks

[A-L-E-K]

today sunnier and nicer than expected so far