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May 2025


Stormlover74
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Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight and tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" storm total rainfall is likely. Some areas could see locally higher amounts where some flooding is possible. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail from tomorrow through early next week.

Above normal temperatures will likely develop near the middle of next week.

June looks to be warmer than normal on the CFSv2. However, just as had been the case for May, the AI guidance is notably cooler than the conventional models.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +5.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.688 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.5° (0.7° below normal).

 

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37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL NAM

1748714400-5z5obdT76ug.png

 

The 3k NAM has been all over the place. A few runs ago it had the storm completely bypassing everyone to the south and east. 

The regular NAM is more in line with other models:

Screenshot_20250530-165603.thumb.png.6ccfb95ba998eccb2cc8283ab17d61a5.png

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

to be fair today and tomorrow aren't going to be mostly overcast, the sun looks like it's about to come out right now as a matter of fact.

and we got the sun back yesterday around 6 pm and it was a gorgeous sunset.

Big deal..an hour before sunset doesn't make up for days and  days of clouds

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5 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Big deal..an hour before sunset doesn't make up for days and  days of clouds

trust me I hate all this useless crap H20 time to wormhole it to the moon or any other world that lacks water.  This planet already is 70% water, we don't need any more.

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6 hours ago, Sundog said:

 

The 3k NAM has been all over the place. A few runs ago it had the storm completely bypassing everyone to the south and east. 

The regular NAM is more in line with other models:

Screenshot_20250530-165603.thumb.png.6ccfb95ba998eccb2cc8283ab17d61a5.png

there's not going to be 1+ rain here that's going to be in the Poconos and NW NJ

 

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