May 2025

[bluewave]

The most impressive heat this month is up by International Falls. So an early clue as to where the strongest summer heat may be focused closest to the drought feedback zones in the Western U.S. to the Plains. The new all-time May high of 96° would be the same as 100° here in May. 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
414 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT INTERNATIONAL 
FALLS MN YESTERDAY...

A RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 11 OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT 
INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 
DEGREES SET IN 1991 AND TIED IN 1993.

A RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY WAS ALSO SET 
AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS YESTERDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES 
YESTERDAY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 DEGREES SET ON MAY 21 
1964.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The most impressive heat this month is up by International Falls.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
414 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT INTERNATIONAL 
FALLS MN YESTERDAY...

A RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 11 OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT 
INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 
DEGREES SET IN 1991 AND TIED IN 1993.

A RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY WAS ALSO SET 
AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS YESTERDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES 
YESTERDAY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 DEGREES SET ON MAY 21 
1964.

These over the top heatwaves seem to be increasing as everything heads north. Our summer climate more mirrors the coastal Carolinas. And Montreal the old NYC. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

These over the top heatwaves seem to be increasing as everything heads north. Our summer climate more mirrors the coastal Carolinas. And Montreal the old NYC. 

A minimum of 70° there this time of year is ridiculous. Would be the equivalent of an 84° low at LGA in May. So some pretty extreme stuff.
 

 

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A minimum of 70° there this time of year is ridiculous. 
 

 

It must be the giant UHI and massive airport that has sprung up around International Falls. 

I believe the International Falls metro area is only slighty smaller than NYC's. 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like what falls today will be mostly light 

And then hopefully a good soaking tomorrow morning. Our area still has only gotten about an inch of rain this month, so we could use some more. HRRR and most other models give us at least .75" from this event tonight into tomorrow. 

[psv88]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

Are you still on Long Island? I probably missed it if you mentioned it. 

Yes just moved 1.5 miles away across town in commack. Moved southeast so expect warmer winters and cooler summers (to a minor degree).

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It must be the giant UHI and massive airport that has sprung up around International Falls. 

I believe the International Falls metro area is only slighty smaller than NYC's. 

We are really lucky that we haven’t had a severe summer drought with westerly winds in this much warmer climate. Some of most impressive warmth over the last decade has occurred during the winter. When we hit 80° back in February 2018 it was a 4° jump over any previous February high. In the summer that would translate into 112° at Newark, 110° to 111° at LGA or the warmer zone near Corona, Queens. 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like what falls today will be mostly light 

Just some occasional light shower or light drizzle here.

[SACRUS]

Brunt of the rain is forecast between 8PM tonight and 6AM THu morning 1.00 - 1.5.  Then more scattered rains (0.15-0.50) Thu - Friday afternoon.  Some storms/showers with the front Sat (0.10 - 0.30)  Then dry Sun - Tue next week.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

It must be the giant UHI and massive airport that has sprung up around International Falls. 

I believe the International Falls metro area is only slighty smaller than NYC's. 

Yeah, it was a bad day of global warming.  Thank goodness for shorts and pools, am I right?!   I'm sure people are happy that the rest of the 364 days of the year global warming isn't as bad there.  Otherwise people might move to a cooler place, maybe central park.

[nycwinter]

another hoodie week possible we can get through the rest of the month still wearing my hoodie..

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, it was a bad day of global warming.  Thank goodness for shorts and pools, am I right?!   I'm sure people are happy that the rest of the 364 days of the year global warming isn't as bad there.  Otherwise people might move to a cooler place, maybe central park.

what point are you trying to make

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

JFK is currently experiencing the longest 100° day drought on record at 4316 days due to the increased onshore flow since 2013.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1948-07-17 to 2025-05-12
1	4316	2013-07-19 through 2025-05-12
2	4016	1999-07-06 through 2010-07-03
3	4009	1972-07-24 through 1983-07-15
4	3610	1983-08-21 through 1993-07-08
5	2210	1966-07-05 through 1972-07-22
6	2185	1993-07-11 through 1999-07-04
7	963	1960-05-02 through 1962-12-20
8	857	1955-03-18 through 1957-07-21
9	817	1951-11-07 through 1954-01-31
10	736	1948-08-28 through 1950-09-02

 

 

well it has to break sometime Chris, but note as I pointed out before, thee period have been getting longer since 1966.... I believe our extreme high temps are leveling off and flatlining, because the earth is self regulating our summertime high temps, we'll likely reach a ceiling and not get any higher than that.  That number is higher for inland areas, but at whatever level, we'll all eventually reach a ceiling and temperatures won't get any higher than that.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are really lucky that we haven’t had a severe summer drought with westerly winds in this much warmer climate. Some of most impressive warmth over the last decade has occurred during the winter. When we hit 80° back in February 2018 it was a 4° jump over any previous February high. In the summer that would translate into 112° at Newark, 110° to 111° at LGA or the warmer zone near Corona, Queens. 

summer heat is a lot of fun because we get to go to the beach, there's plenty of water in the ocean to enjoy ;-)

CC is actually setting a limit as to how hot our summers can get unfortunately.  The sky is the limit with winter though-- at some point, we'll lose our seasons and there won't be a big difference between winter and summer, you're already seeing that with fall just becoming an extension of summer.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are really lucky that we haven’t had a severe summer drought with westerly winds in this much warmer climate. Some of most impressive warmth over the last decade has occurred during the winter. When we hit 80° back in February 2018 it was a 4° jump over any previous February high. In the summer that would translate into 112° at Newark, 110° to 111° at LGA or the warmer zone near Corona, Queens. 

If thats what it takes to get JFK to 104-105, I'm fine with Newark hitting 110+

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are really lucky that we haven’t had a severe summer drought with westerly winds in this much warmer climate. Some of most impressive warmth over the last decade has occurred during the winter. When we hit 80° back in February 2018 it was a 4° jump over any previous February high. In the summer that would translate into 112° at Newark, 110° to 111° at LGA or the warmer zone near Corona, Queens. 

By the way this has come close to happening in the past.

I present to you Summer 1966 and Summer 2011

Summer 1966

Newark 105

Central Park 103

LaGuardia 107

Kennedy 104

Note that in Summer 1966 Central Park was also cooler than Kennedy, was that also a foliage issue?

Summer 2011

Newark 108

Central Park 104

Kennedy 103

(I don't remember the La Guardia high temperature from July 2011 off the top of my head.)

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most impressive heat this month is up by International Falls. So an early clue as to where the strongest summer heat may be focused closest to the drought feedback zones in the Western U.S. to the Plains. The new all-time May high of 96° would be the same as 100° here in May. 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
414 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025

...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT INTERNATIONAL 
FALLS MN YESTERDAY...

A RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 11 OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT 
INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 
DEGREES SET IN 1991 AND TIED IN 1993.

A RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY WAS ALSO SET 
AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS YESTERDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES 
YESTERDAY BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 DEGREES SET ON MAY 21 
1964.

Our May and Junes used to be much hotter in the 50s and 60s, we hit 99 in May 1962 if I remember correctly and 100 in June 1953.

Yes, this is all off the top of my head.... I remember numbers very well and I'm not old enough yet for my memory to be fading (knock on wood lol).

 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

It must be the giant UHI and massive airport that has sprung up around International Falls. 

I believe the International Falls metro area is only slighty smaller than NYC's. 

 

[SACRUS]

Steady light - sheet rain has yielded 0.11 here in the last few hours.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

summer heat is a lot of fun because we get to go to the beach, there's plenty of water in the ocean to enjoy ;-)

CC is actually setting a limit as to how hot our summers can get unfortunately.  The sky is the limit with winter though-- at some point, we'll lose our seasons and there won't be a big difference between winter and summer, you're already seeing that with fall just becoming an extension of summer.

 

There is some truth to that. If you look back at periods that had similar CO2 levels and resultant temps 5c warmer then current. The poles were warm enough to support forrests. Warming is much more pronounced closer to the poles. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There is some truth to that. If you look back at periods that had similar CO2 levels and resultant temps 5c warmer then current. The poles were warm enough to support forrests. Warming is much more pronounced closer to the poles. 

I'm thinking a lesser version of Venus will develop eventually, maybe even permanent cloud cover.  With 70% of the surface covered in oceans, it's not even that much of a stretch.

The permanent cloud cover will help even out the temperatures across the planet so that's a way of planetary self regulation too, not that we want that lol.

[Sundog]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, it was a bad day of global warming.  Thank goodness for shorts and pools, am I right?!   I'm sure people are happy that the rest of the 364 days of the year global warming isn't as bad there.  Otherwise people might move to a cooler place, maybe central park.

My comment was more to make fun of those who think any warming is because of UHI, or airports, or the Sun, or volcanoes, or fissures at the bottom of the sea, or gremlins, or pretty much anything else other than greenhouse gases.  

Your first 110 degree day is coming. Get the panels spruced up and ready. 

[Sundog]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm thinking a lesser version of Venus will develop eventually, maybe even permanent cloud cover.  With 70% of the surface covered in oceans, it's not even that much of a stretch.

The permanent cloud cover will help even out the temperatures across the planet so that's a way of planetary self regulation too, not that we want that lol.

Not happening here, not because of anthropogenic induced warming.

That won't happen for another 700+ million years and it will be the Sun that does that, not people. 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Not happening here, not because of anthropogenic induced warming.

That won't happen for another 700+ million years and it will be the Sun that does that, not people. 

well the sun will likely vaporize the entire planet but human induced climate change will be enough to cause a rapid increase in cloud cover.

we won't be on this planet in 1 million years let alone 700 million

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thundershowers are likely this evening into tomorrow. It will turn somewhat warmer on Thursday and the week could end with temperatures in the upper 70s to perhaps 80°.

Meanwhile, parts of Texas are now experiencing extreme heat. As of 3 pm CDT, daily records were surpassed in Cotulla and Del Rio and the daily record was tied in Houston. The temperature could approach or set new May monthly high temperature records in such cities as Austin, Del Rio and San Antonio tomorrow.

The extended guidance has grown cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month could average near normal overall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +1.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.459 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.5° (2.3° above normal).

 

[Sundog]

Is all that stuff on radar that looks a lot more dramatic than it really is producing anything anywhere?

[Snowlover11]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Is all that stuff on radar that looks a lot more dramatic than it really is producing anything anywhere?

not here, not even a drop.  ground is completely dry.

[uofmiami]

12 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Is all that stuff on radar that looks a lot more dramatic than it really is producing anything anywhere?

OKX is in clear air mode, that's why.  If they switched to precip mode would be a lot closer to reality of producing not much.

[LibertyBell]

wow earliest shark sighting on Long Island, a Great White was sighted near Montauk!!

[Santa Claus]

beautiful day today