May 2025

[Brian5671]

off and on tropical downpours here all afternoon

[lee59]

Storm total here now .92

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Just .02" here so far.  Maybe when this is done I'll get up to .10" lol

Had a decent downpour that got us to 0.15" for the day here. 0.55" for the event so far, which is pretty disappointing. Hopefully we'll get lucky with a t-storm tomorrow afternoon. If not, the advertised big soaking 4 day period is going end up a big disappointment. Definitely a big bust for the Euro model which showed ridiculously high amounts for days. 

[FPizz]

18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Had a decent downpour that got us to 0.15" for the day here. 0.55" for the event so far, which is pretty disappointing. Hopefully we'll get lucky with a t-storm tomorrow afternoon. If not, the advertised big soaking 4 day period is going end up a big disappointment. Definitely a big bust for the Euro model which showed ridiculously high amounts for days. 

I'm at .06 today .21" total.  I didn't want the 5" that the euro had, but was looking for 1.5" or so.  We will see what happens the next day or so I guess.

[psv88]

1.15” today, high of 63. 

[Monty]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

I'm at .06 today .21" total.  I didn't want the 5" that the euro had, but was looking for 1.5" or so.  We will see what happens the next day or so I guess.

Pathetic failure by King Euro. Nwp has somehow regressed. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

off and on tropical downpours here all afternoon

The Yankees are playing in this weather lol.

[donsutherland1]

Additional rain is likely tomorrow and Wednesday. It now appears that the dry respite will be brief. Another storm could affect the region Friday into Saturday before a cooler drier air mass arrives.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +1.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.778 today.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Thinking the areas that didnt get much this Fri - Wed period will get more on thu Pm - Fri Pm event.

[SACRUS]

12 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Rainfall totals  Fri  through 0600

NYC: 1.10
EWR: 0.43
JFK: 0.41
New Brnwck: 0.36
LGA: 0.13

 

Totals Fri - 8PM

 

NYC: 1.78
LGA: 1.06
JFK: 1.05
EWR: 0.75
New Brnsck: 0.58

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Additional rain is likely tomorrow and Wednesday. It now appears that the dry respite will be brief. Another storm could affect the region Friday into Saturday before a cooler drier air mass arrives.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +1.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.778 today.

 

Latest EURO for JJA agrees on warmer than normal Summer.  Especially nations mid-section where it shows the largest positive departures. FWIW.

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Latest EURO for JJA agrees on warmer than normal Summer.  Especially nations mid-section where it shows the latest positive departures. FWIW.

Yes. Almost coast-to-coast warmth.

[Sundog]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Totals Fri - 8PM

 

NYC: 1.78
LGA: 1.06
JFK: 1.05
EWR: 0.75
New Brnsck: 0.58

 

Over half of the Central Park total came from a heavy cell a couple days ago that just clipped the park but missed everyone to the east of Manhattan, hence the totals discrepancy. 

[qg_omega]

Pouring 

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Had a decent downpour that got us to 0.15" for the day here. 0.55" for the event so far, which is pretty disappointing. Hopefully we'll get lucky with a t-storm tomorrow afternoon. If not, the advertised big soaking 4 day period is going end up a big disappointment. Definitely a big bust for the Euro model which showed ridiculously high amounts for days. 

Today's rain was very beneficial for the grass and plants though.  Relatively consistent light rain, with some heavy bursts here and there.  Not a resevoir filler but I can see today things are already looking way greener than Saturday.  We did better up this way, about a half inch.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Steady moderate rain again in SW Nassua, rare for this to be the jackpot area. But it seems to just want to train here today. I’ll take it, my veggies are pretty stoked. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Ummmmm what in the actual F is that on radar south of central Suffolk!  
It’s obviously a major moisture plume, but wow, if that holds together there will be major flooding out there overnight!!!!

[psv88]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ummmmm what in the actual F is that on radar south of central Suffolk!  
It’s obviously a major moisture plume, but wow, if that holds together there will be major flooding out there overnight!!!!

Let’s hope not. 1.65” for the event and the ground is saturated. The new house is essentially a construction site so flooding will be no good

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Let’s hope not. 1.65” for the event and the ground is saturated. The new house is essentially a construction site so flooding will be no good

Right now worst of it looks to be east towards KFOK. Almost has a similar look to the plume from the infamous Islip floods. Though that was a higher dew, higher moisture and higher rates event due to the warmer water temps later in the season.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

[Snowlover11]

congrats eastern LI.

[bluewave]

The Euro has two more rainy cutoffs after this one the next few weeks. The next once comes through later in the week. Then another one before the 15th. It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about a wet summer for us. As it would keep the strongest heat out West where the drought feedback really kicks in.
 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Additional rain is likely tomorrow and Wednesday. It now appears that the dry respite will be brief. Another storm could affect the region Friday into Saturday before a cooler drier air mass arrives.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +1.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.778 today.

 

Drier and Warmer weather for an extended period likely to arrive just in time for Mother's Day (May 11th).

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has two more rainy cutoffs after this one the next few weeks. The next once comes through later in the week. Then another one before the 15th. It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about a wet summer for us. As it would keep the strongest heat out West where the drought feedback really kicks in.
 

 

But the X link Tony posted indicated a dry summer for us?

Why are these cutoffs becoming much more common, is it because of climate change too? Back in the 80s and 90s our Mays were much warmer and drier and we didn't see cutoffs after April.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has two more rainy cutoffs after this one the next few weeks. The next once comes through later in the week. Then another one before the 15th. It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about a wet summer for us. As it would keep the strongest heat out West where the drought feedback really kicks in.
 

 

The Euro might be wrong about that third one, the NWS has us going into a drier and warmer pattern starting on May 11th (Mothers Day) for an extended period.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. Almost coast-to-coast warmth.

1980 summer here we come :-)

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But the X link Tony posted indicated a dry summer for us?

Why are these cutoffs becoming much more common, is it because of climate change too? Back in the 80s and 90s our Mays were much warmer and drier and we didn't see cutoffs after April.

 

Not sure. But the Euro is usually more accurate with the summer than the winter forecast for us. Probably due to less moving parts in the summer so to speak. The reason it may be wet for us is that there are two ridge centers showing up for the summer forecast. One east of New England and another out West. So perhaps the model is trying to show a weakness in the ridge where there could be some moisture pooling. We’ll see if it has a clue. It’s the same idea as the CPC summer forecast. So probably more high dewpoints and onshore flow like we have been seeing in recent years if correct.
 

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Another moisture plume showing up off the Jersey shore. Looks headed toward western LI this time.

Anyone have a map with all the local rain totals for last night? Curious what the east end saw last night other then the AOS and meso stations 

[winterwarlock]

.62 4 day total

Worked yesterday but debating about today. Looks mainly dry after some morning  drizzle for me

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Not sure. But the Euro is usually more accurate with the summer than the winter forecast for us. Probably due to less moving parts in the summer so to speak. The reason it may be wet for us is that there are two ridge centers showing up for the summer forecast. One east of New England and another out West. So perhaps the model is trying to show a weakness in the ridge where there could be some moisture pooling. We’ll see if it has a clue. It’s the same idea as the CPC summer forecast. So probably more high dewpoints and onshore flow like we have been seeing in recent years if correct.
 

 

 

What do you think of the possibilities of the two ridges connecting with each other (creating a ridge bridge as it were lol.)