May 2025

[MANDA]

Guidance only but this WPC product has shown shrinking rainfall totals for days now.

If I get what is shown here for my location and add the .50" I've had so far I'll end up with about 1.75" for the entire "wet period".  I'll take it for sure but a far cry from what could have been and much less than what was being forecast from when we started.  We'll see where final totals actually end up but this was a shaky heavy (3-4"+) rainfall evolution from the get go.

So far extreme NW NJ seems to be doing best, from western Hunterdon, western Warren and up through NW Sussex.

[FPizz]

Rain went through, added .04"  sun trying to pop out again

[MorristownWx]

.46” since yesterday at noon. I’ll take it 

[steve392]

Had a brief spurt of rain earlier and that's it.  Been windy all day. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Guidance only but this WPC product has shown shrinking rainfall totals for days now.

If I get what is shown here for my location and add the .50" I've had so far I'll end up with about 1.75" for the entire "wet period".  I'll take it for sure but a far cry from what could have been and much less than what was being forecast from when we started.  We'll see where final totals actually end up but this was a shaky heavy (3-4"+) rainfall evolution from the get go.

So far extreme NW NJ seems to be doing best, from western Hunterdon, western Warren and up through NW Sussex.

it makes sense with a low track to the west, areas east of the low track usually see the least rainfall and it's almost always showery.

1.75 from such a storm track is actually pretty good.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Most normal people love their hot summers. 99.99% people I know love their summers hot.

I'm rather doubtful of soil moisture controlling heat at all, two of our hottest summers, 1983 and 2011 had a ton of rain.

But thankfully I do not believe we will see that kind of rainfall because we do not want the kind of horrible destruction that flooding has caused in the middle of the country.  Flooding is MUCH worse than any drought ever could be.

 

 

Everyone has their own personal preferences as to which type of weather they enjoy. So this part of the forum discussion is purely subjective. 

Drought feedback, summer rainfall, prevailing wind direction, and the main ridge axis are the key ingredients in determining how many 95°+ or 100°+ days we get around the area. 

The summers of 1983 and 2011 were very dry when we had all the record major heat around the area. Both summers only became wet once the heat was already finished.

You are correct that flooding has produced a tremendous amount of damage in recent years across the entire country. Drought damage has mostly been located out West where the major wildfires have occurred. 

Currently, a large portion of the area has experienced drought conditions since last summer. It has been most pronounced from Eastern PA into portions of NJ. But D1 and D2 drought conditions also over to Orange and Rockland in NY. 

Models like the Euro would have drought improvement for the areas from NE PA across into SNE. But locations further south toward Philly and SNJ wouldn’t see much improvement. 

The Euro seasonal is out tomorrow for the summer. So we should get some hints as to where the drought is forecast to expand or contract and how much major heat will be possible. 

The most recent dry summer during peak heating was 2022. But onshore flow combined with drought feedback in NJ focused the major heat there with the 5+ days going over 100°. But the onshore flow kept points east of the Hudson cooler. 
 

 

 

[SRRTA22]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No only the people on this forum lol.  Actually among the general population I guarantee that way more people want 100 degree temperatures than want a 20 inch snowstorm lol.

 

Most people do NOT like 100 degree temps lol 80/65 temp split with low dews is perfect 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Everyone has their own personal preferences as to which type of weather they enjoy. So this part of the forum discussion is purely subjective. 

Drought feedback, summer rainfall, prevailing wind direction, and the main ridge axis are the key ingredients in determining how many 95°+ or 100°+ days we get around the area. 

The summers of 1983 and 2011 were very dry when we had all the record major heat around the area. Both summers only became wet once the heat was already finished.

You are correct that flooding has produced a tremendous amount of damage in recent years across the entire country. Drought damage has mostly been located out West where the major wildfires have occurred. 

Currently, a large portion of the area has experienced drought conditions since last summer. It has been most pronounced from Eastern PA into portions of NJ. But D1 and D2 drought conditions also over to Orange and Rockland in NY. 

Models like the Euro would have drought improvement for the areas from NE PA across into SNE. But locations further south toward Philly and SNJ wouldn’t see much improvement. 

The Euro seasonal is out tomorrow for the summer. So we should get some hints as to where the drought is forecast to expand or contract and how much major heat will be possible. 

The most recent dry summer during peak heating was 2022. But onshore flow combined with drought feedback in NJ focused the major heat there with the 5+ days going over 100°. But the onshore flow kept points east of the Hudson cooler. 
 

 

 

when you look at summers like 1983 and 2011 though, wasn't it went both before and after summer? 1982-83 was a very strong el nino so naturally it had a very wet winter and I remember spring was very wet too.  It was only the summer months that had lower rainfall.  It makes me think that it gives the soil time to dry out before peak heating season.

2010-11 was of course a very snowy winter and also very wet.  I don't remember what spring was like that year except for all the severe weather outbreaks across the south and midwest.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Most people do NOT like 100 degree temps lol 80/65 temp split with low dews is perfect 

100 degrees is what makes a summer memorable, if it has low dew points even better.  I would love 101 degrees with a dew point of 60, we got a lot of that in 2010.

There's also a nice correlation between hot summers and snowy winters.

We had that in 1955, 1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010, and 2013.

 

[steve392]

It's like this rain is jyst splitting around nenj.  

[LibertyBell]

steady heavyish rain now, today has been a pretty rainy day and so will the next 2 days.  This storm is not underperforming

 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Everyone has their own personal preferences as to which type of weather they enjoy. So this part of the forum discussion is purely subjective. 

Drought feedback, summer rainfall, prevailing wind direction, and the main ridge axis are the key ingredients in determining how many 95°+ or 100°+ days we get around the area. 

The summers of 1983 and 2011 were very dry when we had all the record major heat around the area. Both summers only became wet once the heat was already finished.

You are correct that flooding has produced a tremendous amount of damage in recent years across the entire country. Drought damage has mostly been located out West where the major wildfires have occurred. 

Currently, a large portion of the area has experienced drought conditions since last summer. It has been most pronounced from Eastern PA into portions of NJ. But D1 and D2 drought conditions also over to Orange and Rockland in NY. 

Models like the Euro would have drought improvement for the areas from NE PA across into SNE. But locations further south toward Philly and SNJ wouldn’t see much improvement. 

The Euro seasonal is out tomorrow for the summer. So we should get some hints as to where the drought is forecast to expand or contract and how much major heat will be possible. 

The most recent dry summer during peak heating was 2022. But onshore flow combined with drought feedback in NJ focused the major heat there with the 5+ days going over 100°. But the onshore flow kept points east of the Hudson cooler. 
 

 

 

Crazy to see droughts in the deserts, lol

[Sundog]

Finally a good downpour here 

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy to see droughts in the deserts, lol

 

Even deserts get some rain. 

If you're supposed to get 10 inches a year and you only got 4 inches, that can really mess up all the animal and plant life in that environment. 

Even life adapted to dry conditions can only take so much. Add a few million people pulling water from the ground at the same time and you have a major issue. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be rainy and cool. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional rain is likely into Wednesday before a cooler and drier air mass moves into the region.

The coolest air this month could arrive to end the week. It is possible that New York City could see a low temperature near or just below 50° on Friday or Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -2.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.650 today.

 

[Brian5671]

steady rain has commenced here

[nycwinter]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

Even deserts get some rain. 

If you're supposed to get 10 inches a year and you only got 4 inches, that can really mess up all the animal and plant life in that environment. 

Even life adapted to dry conditions can only take so much. Add a few million people pulling water from the ground at the same time and you have a major issue. 

one day yellowstone will erupt or a asteroid will hit earth that will reduce the population.

[wdrag]

Report of a road washout in Sussex county NJ where fall rates were nearly 3.5 per hour a couple hours ago. SR23 out of high point state park.  Saw other mPING reps of flooding W Sussex county. While my AWN reads high. At VA least 1.3” past 24
 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

21 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

one day yellowstone will erupt or a asteroid will hit earth that will reduce the population.

While both of those are garunteed to happen at some point, Yellowstone could be hundreds of thousands of years and a extinction level meteor impact millions of years. 

[wdrag]

NJ and NYS mesonrtd have about 2.3” near High Point NJ and Port Jervis NY.  Am remote so can’t verify but am sure SR23 washout is legit.  Don’t know how serious. 

[Picard]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

NJ and NYS mesonrtd have about 2.3” near High Point NJ and Port Jervis NY.  Am remote so can’t verify but am sure SR23 washout is legit.  Don’t know how serious. 

It looked like a training effect was setting up on radar earlier for that area.  I figured they must've gotten heavier amounts.
When we do get thunderstorms into this area, the very top of NJ seems to do well.  I've lived in Sparta for 5 years, and it's a regular occurance to be able to watch storms off our northwest facing deck, as they train along the top of NJ and into Orange County.  I can often hear distant rumbles of thunder and the clouds are always an awesome sight.  It's less common for storms to miss to the south.

Is there anything to the geography of the area that causes this to happen?   I'd love to see average rainfall over the past few years from Port Jervis, NY vs Sparta NJ, especially during thunderstorm season.