May 2025

[STORMANLI]

0.29"

[Stormlover74]

My guess is this weekend will be predominantly dry. Especially tomorrow. 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

My guess is this weekend will be predominantly dry. Especially tomorrow. 

I was just gonna post the same thing. Models not showing much anymore ... most of it stays to the north and west. We probably have to wait until Monday into Tuesday for our soaking. As long as it comes eventually. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I was just gonna post the same thing. Models not showing much anymore ... most of it stays to the north and west. We probably have to wait until Monday into Tuesday for our soaking. As long as it comes eventually. 

We probably have a shot at something tomorrow night. Euro and ukie still seem way overdone

[TJW014]

Muggy out. Picked the wrong time to decide on bedlining the truck bed (needs 5 days without touching water) but all the prep work needs to get done. 

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I was just gonna post the same thing. Models not showing much anymore ... most of it stays to the north and west. We probably have to wait until Monday into Tuesday for our soaking. As long as it comes eventually. 

GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. 

Looks like Saturday afternoon into night is the coasts chance of decent rains .

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. 

This was always a shaky evolution.  We'll see what the final results are but the super hefty event totals (3-4"+) are looking very questionable especially along and east of I95.

[Sundog]

12z GFS is kind of a bust in our area. 

[Brian5671]

We will get some rain b/w now and next Tue/Wed but the big totals are looking less and less likely

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I wasn’t expecting today to be mostly sunny and have the highest real feel temps of the season so far on the south shore. It’s almost uncomfortable in the sun. 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. 

I'll be satisfied as long as we get around an inch of rain. We don't need the big 3 to 5 inch amounts that the Euro is showing, but we do need a good watering. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro holds with the much bigger amounts on the 12z run. It seems as if our very big rain event is falling apart. 

[Picard]

So it goes as with most of the storms here.  I'm left wondering if we'll get much of anything the next few days.

The latest drought monitor continues to show the same persistent trends nearly perfectly, in that the precip hits a wall about 2/3 of the way across PA and NY state.  Look what happened with last weeks line, shredded to nothing once it passed state college.  It's interesting how parts of NY state and New England have had persistent rain and snow these past months, and have run normal or above in the precipitation category.  These same trends can be seen on soil moisture maps too.

Bottom Line: don't cancel any outdoor plans.  You might be fine.

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'll be satisfied as long as we get around an inch of rain. We don't need the big 3 to 5 inch amounts that the Euro is showing, but we do need a good watering. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro holds with the much bigger amounts on the 12z run. It seems as if our very big rain event is falling apart. 

Crazy differences 

[Stormlover74]

Euro still very wet

[CentralNJSnowman]

Pouring in Central NJ right now

[nycwinter]

the only thing that concerns me are reservoir levels they are at 96% with the new forecast looks like the reservoirs will greatly benefit from this rain who knows we might get to 100% or close to it in a week..

[Snowlover11]

It got hot quickly.  81F

[Sundog]

UKMET haha:

[SACRUS]

7 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Pouring in Central NJ right now

Rogue cell

 

[SACRUS]

 

[jm1220]

Just now, Sundog said:

UKMET haha:

Fickle evolution. Hopefully the wetter models are right. It won’t cause flooding since the rain comes over a few days and we need to build up the groundwater for summer. 

[CentralNJSnowman]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Rogue cell

 

Yeah - lasted 10-15 minutes.  Probably somewhere between .25-.5 inches I'd estimate

I think we're in the same town, unless you've moved anytime in the past 10 years or so

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

Holding off  a thread for now... manageable 3-6" event northwest of I95 with isolated 8" possible by Tue night???  NYC-LI-coastal NJ my guess per WPC and modeling is 1.5-3.5".  Most of this Sun-Tue but starts inland late Sat.

Impacts outdoor activity.  Be careful with lightning, slippery embankments.  MLB impacts likely with delays-cancels ATL-DCA-PHL-NYY-BOS sometime in this Sat-Tuesday time frame with leftover scattered convection per the upper low departure Wed afternoon. Might be some embedded isolated severe but do check SPC and local WFO's.

I didnt want to start a thread based on the beefiest ensembling which is the Euro. GEFS and CMCE lagging. 

Monitoring remotely on an Iphone. If I get time I may add info this weekend?

 No changes in my model thinking above. No thread from myself at this time.  Will try and check back tomorrow. 231pm/2

[jm1220]

Mid 80s in Oyster Bay, 61 in Long Beach. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Mid 80s in Oyster Bay, 61 in Long Beach. 

Summer like where it's warm and muggy.    81 here

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Summer like where it's warm and muggy.    81 here

81 at my house too. Summer for sure

[IrishRob17]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Summer like where it's warm and muggy.    81 here

 

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

81 at my house too. Summer for sure

81 up here too

[SACRUS]

 

86 / 56  

[FPizz]

83