STORMANLI Posted Friday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:08 PM 0.29" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Friday at 02:13 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:13 PM My guess is this weekend will be predominantly dry. Especially tomorrow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Friday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:18 PM 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: My guess is this weekend will be predominantly dry. Especially tomorrow. I was just gonna post the same thing. Models not showing much anymore ... most of it stays to the north and west. We probably have to wait until Monday into Tuesday for our soaking. As long as it comes eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Friday at 02:22 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:22 PM 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I was just gonna post the same thing. Models not showing much anymore ... most of it stays to the north and west. We probably have to wait until Monday into Tuesday for our soaking. As long as it comes eventually. We probably have a shot at something tomorrow night. Euro and ukie still seem way overdone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Friday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:46 PM Muggy out. Picked the wrong time to decide on bedlining the truck bed (needs 5 days without touching water) but all the prep work needs to get done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Friday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:55 PM 35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I was just gonna post the same thing. Models not showing much anymore ... most of it stays to the north and west. We probably have to wait until Monday into Tuesday for our soaking. As long as it comes eventually. GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:10 PM 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. Looks like Saturday afternoon into night is the coasts chance of decent rains . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Friday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:24 PM 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. This was always a shaky evolution. We'll see what the final results are but the super hefty event totals (3-4"+) are looking very questionable especially along and east of I95. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Friday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:31 PM 12z GFS is kind of a bust in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Friday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:41 PM We will get some rain b/w now and next Tue/Wed but the big totals are looking less and less likely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:54 PM I wasn’t expecting today to be mostly sunny and have the highest real feel temps of the season so far on the south shore. It’s almost uncomfortable in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Friday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:02 PM 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. I'll be satisfied as long as we get around an inch of rain. We don't need the big 3 to 5 inch amounts that the Euro is showing, but we do need a good watering. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro holds with the much bigger amounts on the 12z run. It seems as if our very big rain event is falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted Friday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:18 PM So it goes as with most of the storms here. I'm left wondering if we'll get much of anything the next few days. The latest drought monitor continues to show the same persistent trends nearly perfectly, in that the precip hits a wall about 2/3 of the way across PA and NY state. Look what happened with last weeks line, shredded to nothing once it passed state college. It's interesting how parts of NY state and New England have had persistent rain and snow these past months, and have run normal or above in the precipitation category. These same trends can be seen on soil moisture maps too. Bottom Line: don't cancel any outdoor plans. You might be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Friday at 05:23 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:23 PM 20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I'll be satisfied as long as we get around an inch of rain. We don't need the big 3 to 5 inch amounts that the Euro is showing, but we do need a good watering. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro holds with the much bigger amounts on the 12z run. It seems as if our very big rain event is falling apart. Crazy differences 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Euro still very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted Friday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:00 PM Pouring in Central NJ right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted Friday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:03 PM the only thing that concerns me are reservoir levels they are at 96% with the new forecast looks like the reservoirs will greatly benefit from this rain who knows we might get to 100% or close to it in a week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Friday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:06 PM It got hot quickly. 81F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Friday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:07 PM UKMET haha: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Friday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:08 PM 7 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said: Pouring in Central NJ right now Rogue cell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Friday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:08 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Friday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:08 PM Just now, Sundog said: UKMET haha: Fickle evolution. Hopefully the wetter models are right. It won’t cause flooding since the rain comes over a few days and we need to build up the groundwater for summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted Friday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:09 PM Just now, SACRUS said: Rogue cell Yeah - lasted 10-15 minutes. Probably somewhere between .25-.5 inches I'd estimate I think we're in the same town, unless you've moved anytime in the past 10 years or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Friday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:32 PM 6 hours ago, wdrag said: Holding off a thread for now... manageable 3-6" event northwest of I95 with isolated 8" possible by Tue night??? NYC-LI-coastal NJ my guess per WPC and modeling is 1.5-3.5". Most of this Sun-Tue but starts inland late Sat. Impacts outdoor activity. Be careful with lightning, slippery embankments. MLB impacts likely with delays-cancels ATL-DCA-PHL-NYY-BOS sometime in this Sat-Tuesday time frame with leftover scattered convection per the upper low departure Wed afternoon. Might be some embedded isolated severe but do check SPC and local WFO's. I didnt want to start a thread based on the beefiest ensembling which is the Euro. GEFS and CMCE lagging. Monitoring remotely on an Iphone. If I get time I may add info this weekend? No changes in my model thinking above. No thread from myself at this time. Will try and check back tomorrow. 231pm/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Friday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:23 PM Mid 80s in Oyster Bay, 61 in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Friday at 07:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:28 PM 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Mid 80s in Oyster Bay, 61 in Long Beach. Summer like where it's warm and muggy. 81 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Friday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:36 PM 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Summer like where it's warm and muggy. 81 here 81 at my house too. Summer for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted Friday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:49 PM 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Summer like where it's warm and muggy. 81 here 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 81 at my house too. Summer for sure 81 up here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Friday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:00 PM 86 / 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Friday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:07 PM 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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