2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles are showing a negative NAO by Christmas . Have to watch that timeframe especially in the northeast .

Bamwx's video out today supports that and the return to winter. Coincidentally, the video shows exactly what I posted yesterday to Larry that this Friday's cold front wasn't on modeling several days ago. 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That looks like a lock.  Unfortunately if the PNA is still -2 to -3 that won't work, even getting it to 0 is ideal

Yeah, unfortunately here’s the ugly truth for E US cold preferrers (NG is down another 1% today making it a whopping 26% drop from the peak 11 days ago):

left graph has EPS HDD (latest out/0Z in purple); note the cliff dive it takes from today’s very cold 33 HDD, which is a whopping 10 above the normal of 23, to 12/18’s mild 18, which is 6 below the normal of 24! It later gets as low as 15 on 12/25, which is 10 below the normal of 25!

[jm1220]

25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That looks like a lock.  Unfortunately if the PNA is still -2 to -3 that won't work, even getting it to 0 is ideal

If we have a tanked PNA, that raises the likelihood the SE ridge will link up with any -NAO block which obviously is a disaster. 

[GaWx]

OHC has been rising sharply the last 30 days:

[qg_omega]

Pattern reversal is pretty amazing

[Terpeast]

I’m glad the models are fading the warmth around the holidays, but as long as the PNA is negative its an unfavorable setup for snow in the MA. Maybe we can sneak in a wintry mix event. 

[leo2000]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Ensembles are showing a negative NAO by Christmas . Have to watch that timeframe especially in the northeast .

Yes, that looks to be happening and even if it gets mild somewhat in early January but that may not happen as models have been forecasting warm in the long range and it never materializes. I think we could have indeed some storm threats before Christmas and on Christmas itself. 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Central Park was updated to 2.9” lol

It was just nice to finally see a widespread 4-8” clipper which used to be very common in the old days.

I wonder if we can find a way to sneak in a KU that rapidly deepens near the benchmark with some portion of the area going 12” before the end of the season?

My guess is that we will probably need at least one of these events for most spots from Newark out across Long Island to make it to closer to the long term average in the mid 20s for snowfall.

It would be nice to finally see a bounce back year after the repeated lower totals last 7 years and lack of KU events.

I have been looking at the La Niña December snowfall in more detail last few days to try to find where a cutoff may be for average to above average snowfall. Previously  used a 4” snowfall total for a rough approximation of a cutoff. Correcting for the Central Park under measurement they should be right at 4” and Newark is 4.2”. 

But all of the average to above snowfall seasons had 7.7”+in December like 2020, 2017, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2000, and 1995. The one exception was 2016. So it’s possible that the actual cutoff could be in the 4-7”range. 

It will be interesting to see how things work out the rest of the season. I am posting the Newark data below instead of NYC since they have a paid contract observer there. Even adding a bit to the NYC totals getting them closer to Newark shows the same relationship. 

15 most recent La Niña Decembers using RONI and Total Seasonal Snowfall at Newark

24-25….3.5”…..13.6”

22-23….0.1”……2.7”

21-22….0.1”……17.9”

20-21…..11.9”…45.7”

17-18…….7.7”….39.4”

16-17……3.4”….30.0”…..The one year the relationship didn’t work out

11-12……0.0…..8.8”

10-11…..24.5”…68.2”

08-09….8.3”….27.1”

07-08….3.9”….14.6”

05-06….11.0”….37.9”

00-01….14.9”….39.3”

99-00……T…….18.4”

98-99….1.2”…..12.8”

95-96….12.8”….78.4”

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16-17 was generally a torch in January and February in the Eastern US. It just had a very odd distribution of snow. It was the snowiest season ever in Syracuse (almost 160 inches). But places like Baltimore and DC only got ~3 inches of snow. Talk about a very sharp cutoff.

08-09 is another weird one. Despite how cold October-January was, it would have went below average on snow without the KU on March 1-2.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, leo2000 said:

Yes, that looks to be happening and even if it gets mild somewhat in early January but that may not happen as models have been forecasting warm in the long range and it never materializes. I think we could have indeed some storm threats before Christmas and on Christmas itself. 

Torch is gone for the northeast 

[GaWx]

 

But the Euro Weeklies still look mainly mild in most of the E US S of the northern fringe with the torchiest still W of the E US.

 

[Benjamn3]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Torch is gone for the northeast 

Let’s bump that south through va. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, leo2000 said:

Yes, that looks to be happening and even if it gets mild somewhat in early January but that may not happen as models have been forecasting warm in the long range and it never materializes. I think we could have indeed some storm threats before Christmas and on Christmas itself. 

January and February are going to torch. 16-17 is probably the best analog. This could be a great snow season if you live in Syracuse. Not so much if you live in Atlantic City.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

January and February are going to torch. 16-17 is probably the best analog. This could be a great snow season if you live in Syracuse. Not so much if you live in Atlantic City.

I doubt that with the dying La Nina.

[leo2000]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

January and February are going to torch. 16-17 is probably the best analog. This could be a great snow season if you live in Syracuse. Not so much if you live in Atlantic City.

That was a strong El Nino that faded into a weak La Nina. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

It was just nice to finally see a widespread 4-8” clipper which used to be very common in the old days.

I wonder if we can find a way to sneak in a KU that rapidly deepens near the benchmark with some portion of the area going 12” before the end of the season?

My guess is that we will probably need at least one of these events for most spots from Newark out across Long Island to make it to closer to the long term average in the mid 20s for snowfall.

It would be nice to finally see a bounce back year after the repeated lower totals last 7 years and lack of KU events.

I have been looking at the La Niña December snowfall in more detail last few days to try to find where a cutoff may be for average to above average snowfall. Previously  used a 4” snowfall total for a rough approximation of a cutoff. Correcting for the Central Park under measurement they should be right at 4” and Newark is 4.2”. 

But all of the average to above snowfall seasons had 7.7”+in December like 2020, 2017, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2000, and 1995. The one exception was 2016. So it’s possible that the actual cutoff could be in the 4-7”range. 

It will be interesting to see how things work out the rest of the season. I am posting the Newark data below instead of NYC since they have a paid contract observer there. Even adding a bit to the NYC totals getting them closer to Newark shows the same relationship. 

15 most recent La Niña Decembers using RONI and Total Seasonal Snowfall at Newark

24-25….3.5”…..13.6”

22-23….0.1”……2.7”

21-22….0.1”……17.9”

20-21…..11.9”…45.7”

17-18…….7.7”….39.4”

16-17……3.4”….30.0”…..The one year the relationship didn’t work out

11-12……0.0…..8.8”

10-11…..24.5”…68.2”

08-09….8.3”….27.1”

07-08….3.9”….14.6”

05-06….11.0”….37.9”

00-01….14.9”….39.3”

99-00……T…….18.4”

98-99….1.2”…..12.8”

95-96….12.8”….78.4”

Interesting stats. I think what saved 2016-17 was the +PDO and the Nino “hangover”. Had the PDO been negative that winter, I think the results may have been different….just my opinion. It was also almost a 2nd year El Niño….the strong -IOD caused the La Niña to develop, had it not been for that, I have no doubt that would have been a double dip El Niño 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I doubt that with the dying La Nina.

Well realistically speaking what are the odds that December is as cold as it is and January/February don’t torch. It’s hard to get a few colder than average months in a row these days 

[michsnowfreak]

54 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

January and February are going to torch. 16-17 is probably the best analog. This could be a great snow season if you live in Syracuse. Not so much if you live in Atlantic City.

Based on what?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Based on what?

Previous years with similar ENSO/IOD/PDO patterns. They tend to have cool Decembers, but torch in January and February.