2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Probably brief spike before a storm & does not see it clearly. 

But per Bering Sea rule, expect a ridge in the east at the end of month. Could be temporary but not exactly sure. 

Most likelt temporary if that.  We  are currently in phase 8 . You also have to factor in the lag. 

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

New weeks 3-4 outlook makes sense since it’s similar to the Euro Weeklies. But hopefully they will end up too warm:

Already growing tired of this 

[JenkinsJinkies]

CPC is wrong more often than it’s right.

[raindancewx]

The blend of the cold week this past week and the severe heat in November is pretty close to where the full winter ends up - maybe the green area finishes a touch west. But decent microcosm of what I expect - in theory cold enough for a ton of snow in the NE US, but probably too dry or poorly timed for actual heavy snow.

[SnoSki14]

Seeing several clipper type systems on guidance so although big snowstorms are off the table, light to moderate events seem possible even down to Mid-Atlantic 

[GaWx]

 All 0Z ensembles are much colder in the E US 12/13-17 vs earlier runs.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 All 0Z ensembles are much colder in the E US 12/13-17 vs earlier runs.

I’m starting to think around 12/20 there is a relaxation of the cold. Before I get attacked, no, I’m not saying torch. Just want to make that clear because as soon as you say “relaxation” of cold, some people automatically think torch, I’m definitely not saying that but I do think there is going to be a relaxation. I also think the pattern over the next 14 days, at the very least and real likely longer than that, is going to be extremely hostile to I-95 corridor snowstorms. Clippers? Sure. Overrunning? Sure. But classic east coast snowstorms/nor’easters? Color me very skeptical

[bluewave]

Places like Marquette are the big snowfall winner with this overpowering Pacific Jet and trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast with cold air flowing over the record warm Lakes.
 

 

https://www.wpr.org/news/great-lakes-seeing-near-record-warm-waters-this-fall

The Great Lakes are seeing near-record warm water temperatures right now, which means there’s a higher chance for lake effect snow when the weather turns cold.

As of Thursday, all five of the lakes were around 4 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than their long-term average for the last three decades. That’s according to data from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Places like Marquette are the big snowfall winner with this overpowering Pacific Jet and trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast with cold air flowing over the record warm Lakes.
 

 

https://www.wpr.org/news/great-lakes-seeing-near-record-warm-waters-this-fall

The Great Lakes are seeing near-record warm water temperatures right now, which means there’s a higher chance for lake effect snow when the weather turns cold.

As of Thursday, all five of the lakes were around 4 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than their long-term average for the last three decades. That’s according to data from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

I don’t think the lakes are that warm anymore. They were in October when the article in that link was written but the cold blasts in November that caused the heavy lake effect snow and the recent cold is putting a damper on that. 

[donsutherland1]

Today's PNA value was -0.355 with five of the first six days of December seeing negative values. The forecast calls for a continuation of the negative PNA:

Nevertheless, the WPO is forecast to dive to below -2.000 on the EPS and to -3.000 or below on the GEFS. As a result, a foundation is being laid for much of eastern North America to wind up colder to perhaps even much colder than normal during the December 11-20 period. 

This pattern would tend to focus the snows on the Great Lakes region while the East Coast sees lesser snows. PNA- setups typically favor lighter snows on the East Coast. The single exception during December since 1980 was the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010.

Such strongly negative WPO cases also see warmer than normal conditions in the Southwest.

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don’t think the lakes are that warm anymore. They were in October when the article in that link was written but the cold blasts in November that caused the heavy lake effect snow and the recent cold is putting a damper on that. 

Lake Superior is still the 2nd warmest on record since 1995 for December 5th.

https://apps.glerl.noaa.gov/coastwatch/webdata/statistic/pdf/all_year_glsea_avg_s.pdf

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's PNA value was -0.355 with five of the first six days of December seeing negative values. The forecast calls for a continuation of the negative PNA:

Nevertheless, the WPO is forecast to dive to below -2.000 on the EPS and to -3.000 or below on the GEFS. As a result, a foundation is being laid for much of eastern North America to wind up colder to perhaps even much colder than normal during the December 11-20 period. 

This pattern would tend to focus the snows on the Great Lakes region while the East Coast sees lesser snows. PNA- setups typically favor lighter snows on the East Coast. The single exception during December since 1980 was the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010.

I think the pattern gets better as we head late in December for the east when the MJO gets stronger in phase 8.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think the pattern gets better as we head late in December for the east when the MJO gets stronger in phase 8.

My comment regarding snowfall only goes through December 20th. I think if things grow more favorable for the East Coast, it would be during the December 20-31 period as things stand now. Things can still change beforehand, because teleconnections forecasts lose skill beyond 10-14 days.

[roardog]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Lake Superior is still the 2nd warmest on record since 1995 for December 5th.

https://apps.glerl.noaa.gov/coastwatch/webdata/statistic/pdf/all_year_glsea_avg_s.pdf

 

 

 

 

Lake Superior is only one of the Great Lakes though. Both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are below average right now for this date. Lake Huron is right about average but dropping fast and Lake Michigan is a little above average. This is much different than what it was like in October when all of the Great Lakes were very warm. 

[BlizzardWx]

The pattern we have coming up does not have many historical matches comparing it to past Decembers. I'm not exactly sure how to generalize it, but to me it almost appears that the lower latitudes portion of the pattern (say 25-40 N) is shifted east of where you would expect it given the polar configuration. It's a strange to, for example, have robust ridging for 2/3 of the country downstream of the -WPO block like we see days 10-15 in current guidance. I think this may be related to the strong Pacific jet disrupting what would otherwise be a better pattern. 

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, roardog said:

Lake Superior is only one of the Great Lakes though. Both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are below average right now for this date. Lake Huron is right about average but dropping fast and Lake Michigan is a little above average. This is much different than what it was like in October when all of the Great Lakes were very warm. 

It’s the largest and deepest of the Great Lakes so it can absorb much more heat than the smaller and shallower lakes. So it’s still near record levels of warmth.

Part of this is also related to Superior being closest to the record warmth this fall centered in Canada than the other lakes were.

So this is an amazing set up for the near record snows that they experienced in November.