2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Probably brief spike before a storm & does not see it clearly. 

But per Bering Sea rule, expect a ridge in the east at the end of month. Could be temporary but not exactly sure. 

Most likelt temporary if that.  We  are currently in phase 8 . You also have to factor in the lag. 

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

New weeks 3-4 outlook makes sense since it’s similar to the Euro Weeklies. But hopefully they will end up too warm:

Already growing tired of this 

[JenkinsJinkies]

CPC is wrong more often than it’s right.

[raindancewx]

The blend of the cold week this past week and the severe heat in November is pretty close to where the full winter ends up - maybe the green area finishes a touch west. But decent microcosm of what I expect - in theory cold enough for a ton of snow in the NE US, but probably too dry or poorly timed for actual heavy snow.

[SnoSki14]

Seeing several clipper type systems on guidance so although big snowstorms are off the table, light to moderate events seem possible even down to Mid-Atlantic 

[GaWx]

 All 0Z ensembles are much colder in the E US 12/13-17 vs earlier runs.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 All 0Z ensembles are much colder in the E US 12/13-17 vs earlier runs.

I’m starting to think around 12/20 there is a relaxation of the cold. Before I get attacked, no, I’m not saying torch. Just want to make that clear because as soon as you say “relaxation” of cold, some people automatically think torch, I’m definitely not saying that but I do think there is going to be a relaxation. I also think the pattern over the next 14 days, at the very least and real likely longer than that, is going to be extremely hostile to I-95 corridor snowstorms. Clippers? Sure. Overrunning? Sure. But classic east coast snowstorms/nor’easters? Color me very skeptical

[bluewave]

Places like Marquette are the big snowfall winner with this overpowering Pacific Jet and trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast with cold air flowing over the record warm Lakes.
 

 

https://www.wpr.org/news/great-lakes-seeing-near-record-warm-waters-this-fall

The Great Lakes are seeing near-record warm water temperatures right now, which means there’s a higher chance for lake effect snow when the weather turns cold.

As of Thursday, all five of the lakes were around 4 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than their long-term average for the last three decades. That’s according to data from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.