2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

On Nov 29th, the WCS daily PDO rose from ~-0.81 to -0.52, the fastest daily rise since Sept. 2nd:

[MJO812]

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1995575448089309449?s=19

Another warming event on the way

[MJO812]

[Krs4Lfe]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maue has become quite the hype over the past few years as far as weather Twitter goes. Long range (over next few weeks) looks active which is good. It’s good that we have the cold air (though tjat will warm up a bit in mid month, and I’m sure we will torch around Christmas) but timing the cold air during the storminess is a hard sell over in these parts 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, leo2000 said:

So we should expect the models to be getting colder?. For some reason the Ak vortex is still there plus the EPS this morning did not look that cold. 

The split forcing that I mentioned is preventing s clean MJO 8 response due to the interference leading to a moderation of the pattern mid month on the EPS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

The MJO resumed its eastward propagation while greatly strengthening in amplitude over the Western

Pacific during the past week.

• RMM observations currently show the signal at greater than 3 standard deviations in amplitude,

the highest registered since March, 2024

• Based on objectively wave filtered upper-level velocity potential anomalies, the recent strengthening is

likely tied to higher frequency wave modes constructively interfering with both the enhanced and

suppressed MJO envelopes.

• The strong Western Pacific MJO has led to a weakening of the La Nina background circulation over the

equatorial Pacific, with convective anomalies developing off the equator.

• As the faster propagating tropical variability moves away of the slower MJO envelopes, a transition

towards more competing interference is favored, resulting in a substantially weakened MJO signal over

the Western Hemisphere during the next two weeks.

• Even with a weakened MJO, subseasonal forcing still favors the greatest chances for tropical cyclone

development over the South Pacific, with lowered chances over the Indian Ocean.

• The extratropical response associated with Western Hemisphere MJO events during December

historically consists of development of high latitude blocking over/near Greenland, potentially allowing for

Arctic air to be advected into portions of the central and eastern CONUS.

[A-L-E-K]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

ready 2 b buried

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

ready 2 b buried

Same

[EasternLI]

I think this whole process was slowed down a little by the original Kelvin wave coming in stronger than longer range guidance was suggesting. So a little after mid month now looks like a better bet. After that period of destructive interference this is a pretty nice look starting to show up. And with the next Kelvin wave about to constructively interfere with it just beyond this. 

[MJO812]

Latest Euro Weeklies MJO 

[schoeppeya]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not possible, I was told it was a foregone conclusion that the PV was going to be strong by mid month and we were going to torch. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

-ENSO and deep -IOD usually favor a cool December, in comparison to the rest of the season. That was the case in 2016-17 and 2022-23. It's January and February when it really torches.

If December ends with <1 inch of snow, then the winter is in trouble. That's what happened at PHL, BWI, and DCA those winters. PHL got lucky with the March 2017 snowstorm, but the snow totals for those seasons are as follows:

PHL: 0.3 inches 2022-23

BWI: 3.0 inches 2016-17, 0.2 inches 2022-23

DCA: 3.4 inches 2016-17, 0.4 inches 2022-23

[GaWx]

GEFS AO forecasts:

Just 4 days ago (11/28 run), it was forecasting the AO to be at +0.7 on Dec 7th (only 9 days out):

 Today’s run (12/2) has the Dec 7th AO way down to -2.3 or 3.0 lower than the run from a mere 4 days ago:

 Thus, even the ensemble means when looking out just 8-10 days have recently been missing high latitude blocking. So, for the time being, I’m taking the 11-14 day progs with more of a grain than usual.

Edit: Today’s MJO runs are running very late at my sources. I still don’t see them.

[GaWx]

 This from BAMwx’s Michael Clark was released ~30 minutes ago. I’ve yet to watch it. Hopefully it’s reasonable and not swinging for the fences too much:

@donsutherland1

[LakeEffectOH]

IMHO, BAM does a really good job in explaining what may happen.  BAM is also not afraid to not make changes to their forecasts/outlooks if the situation warrants.

At this time, BAM is more midwest centric, but recently, they've spending more time discussing the eastern part of the US.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

@snowman19 I see my reflection in the MJO phase 8/SSW combo. Hope everyone stays safe in Central Park.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@snowman19 I see my reflection in the MJO phase 8/SSW combo. Hope everyone stays safe in Central Park.

MJO still in 7. Nice try though .

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

MJO still in 7. Nice try though .

How much is in your forecast next week??

Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon

Rain. High near 42. North wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

Tonight

Rain, mainly before 7pm. Low around 31. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 40. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. 

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 31. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. 

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 40. West wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. 

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 20.

Friday

Increasing clouds, with a high near 33.

Friday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 38.

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Monday

Partly sunny, with a high near 31.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll be generous and give you a half inch Saturday....1/3 of the month down.

Tick, tock, tick, tock, in Anthony's mouth Mother Nature will stick a sock.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be generous and give you a half inch Saturday....1/3 of the month down.

Tick, tock, tick, tock, in Anthony's mouth Mother Nature will stick a sock.

Why are you so confident ? You really dont see a better pattern ahead with the MJO going into the favorable phases ? Its you vs the world in that regards lol

[MJO812]

https://www.nunneryplumbingandheating.co.uk/02-164845-polar-vortex-rare-december/

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

https://www.nunneryplumbingandheating.co.uk/02-164845-polar-vortex-rare-december/

The entirety of this piece is AI generated. The header image, the article's author "Dylan Hartwell", and the full contents of the piece. Every single paragraph has the hallmarks of a ChatGPT-fed prompt. 

 

No need to source robot weenies for the December forecast, we have plenty here who will do that job for you for free 

[FPizz]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why are you so confident ? You really dont see a better pattern ahead with the MJO going into the favorable phases ? Its you vs the world in that regards lol

He has to stick to his forecast now.  You know the deal...

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be generous and give you a half inch Saturday....1/3 of the month down.

Tick, tock, tick, tock, in Anthony's mouth Mother Nature will stick a sock.

Twitter hasn’t been so confident in a record-breaking, earth-shattering, historic, guaranteed, once in a lifetime, “one to tell your Grandkids about”, “buckle up, get sleep now, it’s coming” severely cold and epically snowy pattern coming for the NYC metro area since…..December, 2022…..

[George001]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Twitter hasn’t been so confident in a record-breaking, earth-shattering, historic, guaranteed, once in a lifetime, “one to tell your Grandkids about”, “buckle up, get sleep now, it’s coming” severely cold and epically snowy pattern coming for the NYC metro area since…..December, 2022…..

If you hate twitter so much why not just stay off it? You know the deal with twitter and what kind of people are pushing these agendas. Everything is exaggerated to being historic or record breaking, that’s what gets clicks. 

[GaWx]

 The updated PDO (for 11/30) rose some more to -0.46 (from -0.51 on the prior day): 

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Twitter hasn’t been so confident in a record-breaking, earth-shattering, historic, guaranteed, once in a lifetime, “one to tell your Grandkids about”, “buckle up, get sleep now, it’s coming” severely cold and epically snowy pattern coming for the NYC metro area since…..December, 2022…..

who are you even following? nobody reputable is calling for that 

[Krs4Lfe]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Twitter hasn’t been so confident in a record-breaking, earth-shattering, historic, guaranteed, once in a lifetime, “one to tell your Grandkids about”, “buckle up, get sleep now, it’s coming” severely cold and epically snowy pattern coming for the NYC metro area since…..December, 2022…..

I remember that one. There was nothing to show for it, just how there's been almost nothing to show for it since all the great winter patterns that have been promised since that winter, 3 years in a row. Looks to be cold but inactive through mid month, and then we have to hopefully obtain 4" of snow in the second half of the month. By then, we have to hope that the mid month warmup isn't too warm for snow. That being said, we can easily have a colder than normal month but with little to no snow to show for it. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

I remember that one. There was nothing to show for it, just how there's been almost nothing to show for it since all the great winter patterns that have been promised since that winter, 3 years in a row. Looks to be cold but inactive through mid month, and then we have to hopefully obtain 4" of snow in the second half of the month. By then, we have to hope that the mid month warmup isn't too warm for snow. That being said, we can easily have a colder than normal month but with little to no snow to show for it. 

In this warmer climate, it's very hard to get colder than normal months anymore. So when December 2022 went by with very little/no snow, I knew that winter was in trouble. Cold and very little/no snow December is the worst combination in this warming climate.

I'd much have a torch December, like December 2015/2021/2023 because I know that there's at least a chance for it to regress to the mean (unless you have a really bad setup like 2001-02 or 2011-12).

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, FPizz said:

He has to stick to his forecast now.  You know the deal...

Of course

[LakePaste25]

I still do not see any pattern that supports major I-95 snow through mid december. Nothing will dig with this. You’re looking at light events/sliders. Still favors Great Lakes/Interior the most.