high risk Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 watch coming soon. The environment isn't awesome for severe, but there is a fair amount of downdraft cape, and storms will be quite organized. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Storms popping off now in this juicy airmass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Storms popping off now in this juicy airmass new HRRR destroys us---with nothing--at least in NVA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Storms popping off now in this juicy airmass Mid level lapse rates are terrible. The cell over Montgomery County barely got off the ground before it collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 SLGT risk for severe tomorrow on the updated afternoon 1730z SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 3 minutes ago, yoda said: SLGT risk for severe tomorrow on the updated afternoon 1730z SPC OTLK Slight Risk warranted through Friday, IMO. We are in the summer doldrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 STW issued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 A Blue Box with 42m people in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Significant downburst here in southern Howard County. Big pieces of trees down and no power 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 So....thoughts on today's severe weather potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: So....thoughts on today's severe weather potential? Instinct tells me better heating potential than yesterday. I look for stronger storms but less coverage. The NOAA says slight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 54 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: Instinct tells me better heating potential than yesterday. I look for stronger storms but less coverage. The NOAA says slight: For my area, and in general, Mount Holly has four times the rainfall potential amounts for later today, verus last evening, interesting. @WxUSAF posted about this yesterday, as well as @CAPE. WPC remains bullish next 72 hours as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said: Instinct tells me better heating potential than yesterday. I look for stronger storms but less coverage. The NOAA says slight: I thought the temperature today was supposed to be less than yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 Related (but not directly to today) - has anyone using GR2AE or GR2 noticed lower resolutions? I've tried various color tables and while I might just be imagining things, it seems like the data is just blockier/lower resolution. I looked at the GR Owners forum and didn't on a cursory glance see anything. I am on the latest release (at least latest as of what I saw when I looked a week or so ago). Again - might be my imagination but it just "feels" way lower resolution than I am used to - even like as low as Level 3 data. This is coming through via my AllisonHouse subscription too...so presumably the data feed is not the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 WPC upped parts of our area to MDT risk for flooding per their late morning update... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, Interstate said: I thought the temperature today was supposed to be less than yesterday. You're right; KNAK is running about 4f less today, hour for hour. DP a few points less too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Watch issues for everyone west of the Bay and north of RIC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 Slow storm motions so far. Also sort of weak looking - definitely (at least so far) more of a heavy rain/flooding threat than a severe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 That storm near Bowie / Edgewater has that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 8 minutes ago, Kleimax said: That storm near Bowie / Edgewater has that look Couple look a little hook-y. can’t tell if it’s actually a “hook” - but the Culpeper and Mineral storms look interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Not sure that this cell over DC needs a tornado warning, but I understand the caution 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Thursday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:01 AM Interesting evening. Sussex county tornado warning was over my folks house, but thankfully no damage, just a shit ton of lightning and thunder Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted yesterday at 06:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:24 PM Maybe a watch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago The NCAR AI severe page indicates a hefty chance of severe on Thursday - but SPC has held off on any risk areas due to the uncertainty from MCVs and prior day convection (and the position of the front). Bears watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: The NCAR AI severe page indicates a hefty chance of severe on Thursday - but SPC has held off on any risk areas due to the uncertainty from MCVs and prior day convection (and the position of the front). Bears watching. Got a screen cap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Got a screen cap? This is only one of the available algorithms. Note that they tend to be VERY robust so take with a grain of salt. I really only use it as a Day 4-8 "first guess" area to look for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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