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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Those aren’t attacks man. Simply stating what the models look like lol. You just can’t handle the truth…and you lash out, as always. 

And man,  others were just saying what the model showed too. Goes both ways.  And that is the truth. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you really believe he is acting as you say he is, probably best not to engage.

Spoken like a true counselor.

Anyway, hoping we can take advantage of the cold and get a few short waves to move through.  If not it’s still early. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We need a Will intervention, desperately.

There’s nothing to say other than the pattern is going to be cold for much of early December. That will be a nice table setting for any potential storm systems…we need pretty decent negative departures to get snowstorms in early December outside of paste jobs for elevations. So hopefully the shortwaves cooperate. 
 

I can’t say anything that is going to make the pessimists change their tune. Only the weather can do that. I’d like to see a bit more analysis in this thread though and less bickering back and forth. 
 

Fingers crossed we get some good legit threats after the first few days of the month. I think the chances are higher than climo for sure in this pattern. 

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46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Correct me if I’m wrong Scott, but wouldn’t we rather see it not be exactly text book perfect at first(as we are), and then have it trend/mature into something even better…that way it becomes a more stable and longer lasting set up…somewhat like 2015 was.  
 

Analogous/akin, to buying beautifully ripe bananas that are absolutely perfect, only to get them home and two days later they’re going to shit.  Get the less ripe good looking beauties, and they’ll ripen and last a lot longer for all to enjoy… 

I still would rather see something good 10-15 days out and hold imo. 

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i saw this meme the other day that was eye rollingly funny...    it was something like only in amerca do people trample over one another is a psychopathic rage of material hollowness a day after celebrating, in peace, a holiday to be Thankful for what they have.   ...although, some of the households in here ... you know, you wonder if they are a delicious pressure cooker socio-dynamic functionality state, where time outs spent with social media serve as a release valve... lol

That's why we have Festivus for the rest of us.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s nothing to say other than the pattern is going to be cold for much of early December. That will be a nice table setting for any potential storm systems…we need pretty decent negative departures to get snowstorms in early December outside of paste jobs for elevations. So hopefully the shortwaves cooperate. 
 

I can’t say anything that is going to make the pessimists change their tune. Only the weather can do that. I’d like to see a bit more analysis in this thread though and less bickering back and forth. 
 

Fingers crossed we get some good legit threats after the first few days of the month. I think the chances are higher than climo for sure in this pattern. 

Synopsis: 1- It Gonna Cold!  2- You all be crazy! :lol:

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27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z NAM is a strung out mess and pretty far south.. its amazing how much these models are changing so close in..  Northern New England doesn't even see anything 

Wrong thread. 

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21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

btw, there is split flow. the STJ isn't raging or anything but there is phasing potential in this kind of pattern

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-uv200_stream-3443200.thumb.png.a42ccb3c1cb6875f20c4262955c8cbbe.png

Love this look, especially because the STJ isn't raging. If the STJ was raging, we would be singing a much different tune.

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is an El Nino pattern.....mother nature seems to be engaging in some regression after last year's "El Nina"...

and not a bad thing either...especially since its not a raging strong EL Nino look.  This is what I was envisioning we would have seen setup last winter, for a time anyways. 

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Two weeks takes us to the period everyone has been alluding to....12/7-10.

No one os arguing for much before then.

Could be something in the 12/4-12/7 range too but I agree a bit after that seems a little easier. But there’s some pretty good meridional flow during that time so even though there’s some wave spacing problems on guidance, it’s clown range and you never know how shortwaves will look as we get closer. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Could be something in the 12/4-12/7 range too but I agree a bit after that seems a little easier. But there’s some pretty good meridional flow during that time so even though there’s some wave spacing problems on guidance, it’s clown range and you never know how shortwaves will look as we get closer

Precisely why you can't just look at SLP/QPF maps for storms. 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Those aren’t attacks man. Simply stating what the models look like lol. You just can’t handle the truth…and you lash out, as always. 

I agree that there are a couple of flaws, but overall things look good. The small details will change for better or worse. If anything, the western ridge axis is a bit west of ideal for the classic benchmark track. Ideally for coastal areas we want it centered over Montana, for the Dec 5 time period it’s centered over Washington. I would actually be more optimistic for your area than mine if a storm were to pop up due to this. 

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