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December Medium/ Long Range


Terpeast
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Time for a December thread. 

GEFS/GEPS starting to show a potential coastal Dec 5-7 time frame with cold still hanging around. 

I should add that the canadian is more aggressive with the signal that time frame, the gefs or eps not so much. IMG_6977.thumb.png.32d011547b9a49c5205bb2fc85c71610.pngIMG_6976.thumb.png.00a9e0625d5b9e49a5e2be1850e39307.pngIMG_6975.thumb.png.fdb1919b8875af79ab177212e04e53a4.png

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1989 is not remembered fondly around here because we missed some big storms north and south. But there was some snow and it was damn cold. Could have been pretty epic with subtle changes. Let’s just hope we don’t get January-February 1990…

 

IMG_8988.jpeg

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My gut says we don’t. 1988-1989 was a strong La’Niña vs last year’s El Niño.   Last year didn’t get a chance to really do its magic but these shifts with the La’Nina to be closer to neutral, the anomalies beneath equatorial surface and the interesting MJO activity earlier, I think we are just getting started. I doubt wall-to-wall cold but the “best case scenario” that this winter had, even though was a lower percentage chance when starting the month, looks to be occurring hopefully.  Will need to monitor the patterns and trends to see if cold keeps winning out and how some of these storms behave over the next few weeks.  

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

1989 is not remembered fondly around here because we missed some big storms north and south. But there was some snow and it was damn cold. Could have been pretty epic with subtle changes. Let’s just hope we don’t get January-February 1990…

 

IMG_8988.jpeg

I know this is really banter since it is not relevant to this forum but 1989 was the year we had a white Christmas Eve in Fayetteville, NC!  I'm hoping for a repeat but without you guys getting shafted, and also minus the tropical Jan/Feb.

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Not seeing a discernable signal for a storm beyond late next week on the 0z ens guidance. There is plenty of broad NS vorticity embedded in the flow but a lack of sharp shortwaves as currently modeled. An amplified western US ridge with an axis further west would be more conducive for a sharper NS wave that can dig further south and involve some of the energy in the SW undercutting the ridge. That appears to be the best path to get surface low development early enough and further south for the first week of December, and what I will be watching for in upcoming model simulations. 0z Euro has the right idea and gets close in the 2nd-3rd timeframe but it doesnt come together soon enough and surface low development is a bit late/offshore. 

1733097600-FBMOa1MVhcc.png

 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

All 3 ensembles keep the PNA/EPO/WPO ridging going strong at D15. Cross polar flow the whole time. 

Yeah it looks cold, with reinforcing shots. Gotta have some legit cold for the lowlands to snow and in the current climate regime this is how we can get it. Hopefully this period won't just end up cold and dry with NS waves passing to our north.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah it looks cold, with reinforcing shots. Gotta have some legit cold for the lowlands to snow and in the current climate regime this is how we can get it. Hopefully this period won't just end up cold and dry with NS waves passing to our north.

Cold and dry is always a risk. But in early December we need some pretty anomalous cold to have a shot at widespread snow. Daily avg temp is still in the 40-43F range the first week of the month. If 1989 is a good analog to this upcoming period, there should be storms. Just hope we have better luck this time. 

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19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Since November is locked, rain chances and snow chances 6Z GEFS through Saturday 30th. Mostly wet east of the mountains, but I will be thankful for the rain, we need it!

IMG_4202.png

IMG_4201.png

Almost half of them get snow into the region or south of the region. 

I'll gladly take that a week out

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10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We gotta shove the track of the Thursday/Friday storm south, consensus is looking like a path that is unworkable for most of us beyond a thump for our very special favored friends.

Even if it was further south seems the cold is lacking for most of us.  Plenty of cold after that passes…as expected.  

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


One may solve the other a little bit but yes, a lot needs to go right here. I know I was still sorta in yesterday but I’m feeling out this morning. All in on Dec. 5th still though.

Yes.  Also, hoping northern NE S Canada  and everywhere north of us gets solid snow cover.  That can only help us later. Encouraging to see the cold pouring in…had my doubts earlier in the month that it would never get cold again. But here we are

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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


One may solve the other a little bit but yes, a lot needs to go right here. I know I was still sorta in yesterday but I’m feeling out this morning. All in on Dec. 5th still though.

Revenge of the fifth. Let's make it happen. 

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Dangerous prognosticating from someone who doesn’t really know what he’s doing but I think the 12z EURO is gonna be a step in the right direction for us.

Ignore me! Read more, post less.

Thought it was looking more like its AI component for a second… WxBell was releasing partial info from later in the run. Didn’t turn out as hoped.
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9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Just one in many solutions, still a bit of time

We can hope for the two wave solution with the first becoming a transient 50/50 and the second one digs further south.  Tall order for sure. That’s punching above our latitude.  

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