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Major Hurricane Kirk


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Worth a thread given the forecast to become a major hurricane. Not expected to impact land but could be a big ACE producer. 
 

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292045
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The system we have been monitoring in the eastern Tropical Atlantic 
(AL90) has continued to become better organized throughout the day. 
After an overnight deep convective burst, outer convective banding 
has become better defined, noted by the most recent TAFB subjective 
Dvorak fix of T2.0/30 kt. GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery also 
shows that the circulation, which was more elongated this morning, 
has become better defined on the western side, suggesting a 
well-defined closed vortex now exists. Based on the above data, 
advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve this 
afternoon, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The motion of the new depression currently appears to be westward at 
270/8 kt. A prominent subtropical ridge to the north should continue 
to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward over 
the next couple of days. After that time, this ridge becomes more 
eroded by a mid-latitude trough on its western side, resulting in 
the system gradually turning more poleward through the end of the 
forecast. In general the guidance is pretty tightly clustered for 
the first 48-60 h, with spread increasing a little more thereafter 
related to how quickly the system turns poleward. The initial NHC
track forecast lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach 
(HCCA), which favors the ECMWF track a little further west than the 
GFS track.  

For at least the next 2-3 days, vertical wind shear is expected to 
remain low, mid-level moisture stays high, as the system remains 
over 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Yet, the current large 
convective envelope of the system suggests it may take a day or so 
for an inner-core to become established. Thus, the initial rate of 
intensification is a bit slow, a little under the guidance for the 
next 24 hours, but then becomes faster and ends up near the IVCN 
consensus aid by 120 h. The initial NHC intensity forecast shows 
TD12 becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a major hurricane in 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 13.8N  32.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 13.9N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 14.2N  35.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 14.5N  38.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 15.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 15.9N  41.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 17.4N  42.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 20.0N  45.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 22.5N  47.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Satellite images show an expanding area of central convection near 
the system with the low-level center on the western side of the deep 
convection.  Microwave data from a few hours ago showed that an 
inner core is forming, with a partial eyewall noted on an AMSU 
pass. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on 40-45 kt 
winds from a pair of recent scatterometer passes. 

The motion of Kirk appears to be westward at about 10 kt, with the 
center apparently re-forming to the south within the deeper 
convection.  The track forecast is relatively straightforward, with 
Kirk expected to follow the south and southwestern edge of the 
subtropical high over the east-central Atlantic, resulting in a 
path that gradually gains latitude and Kirk moving northward by 
this weekend.  Other than a small westward adjustment based on the 
initial motion, the new forecast is very close to the old one.

The environment around Kirk appears quite favorable for 
strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a 
moist environment and low shear in forecast.  Given the formation 
of an inner core, the rate of strengthening has been raised in the 
short term, and rapid intensification is a distinct possibility.  
The biggest negative to this system is probably its large size, 
which could eventually promote eyewall replacement cycles and some 
SST cooling ahead of the system.  Still, almost all of the guidance 
show Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane.  The new 
NHC intensity forecast lies between the dynamical model consensus 
and the statistical-dynamical models, which are quite bullish on 
this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 13.5N  34.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 13.6N  36.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 14.0N  38.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 14.7N  40.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 15.8N  41.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 17.1N  43.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 18.4N  44.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 20.7N  46.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 23.5N  48.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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On 9/30/2024 at 11:06 AM, lilj4425 said:

This damn thing better not even come close to the western Carolinas.

Much better.

Remember this?

 

Look, I was extremely OCD about weather for 45 years. I finally learned but not before alienating most of my immediate family and nearly everyone in the Woodbridge/Dale City Corridor.

I don't know about you, I don't really know how many people live in the greater Washington DC region but all those folks can't be wrong!

Be very very very very very careful about what you wish for. Climate change is very real and storms WILL be extremely bad. I want NONE of this whatsoever. I am glad I am down here in Austin, Texas. We get sun, 109 weather and more sun. No more snow, hardly any rain ever. No weather to speak of, and all I ever wish for is more of the same: Blue skies, 109 degrees, south winds straight out of the Mexican Plateau and a few puffy cumulus. Maybe, I'll wish some snow on northern Virginia in the winter. I wish for no storms. I have learned my lesson. It took me half a century, too bad my dad never lived to see the day I see now he was 100 billion percent correct. My late Dad was the greatest hero that ever lived! There was never anything he was not 100 percent correct about, especially concerning my old behavior. Yeah, I am reviled on here now because I chose to stop this crazy hangup about weather. Revile me! It means I am doing a good job! :) :):):) :):):) :) In summer we get 100s and no rain. In winter we get 77 and sun. This is the LIFE! It was 95 today, no clouds at all!! No rain in our forecast for weeks and weeks! No hurricanes either! Normal high is 87! See, we are 8 degrees above normal! Gonna be a nice warm winter and dry as the Gobi Desert!

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21 hours ago, Jebman said:

Much better.

Remember this?

 

Look, I was extremely OCD about weather for 45 years. I finally learned but not before alienating most of my immediate family and nearly everyone in the Woodbridge/Dale City Corridor.

I don't know about you, I don't really know how many people live in the greater Washington DC region but all those folks can't be wrong!

Be very very very very very careful about what you wish for. Climate change is very real and storms WILL be extremely bad. I want NONE of this whatsoever. I am glad I am down here in Austin, Texas. We get sun, 109 weather and more sun. No more snow, hardly any rain ever. No weather to speak of, and all I ever wish for is more of the same: Blue skies, 109 degrees, south winds straight out of the Mexican Plateau and a few puffy cumulus. Maybe, I'll wish some snow on northern Virginia in the winter. I wish for no storms. I have learned my lesson. It took me half a century, too bad my dad never lived to see the day I see now he was 100 billion percent correct. My late Dad was the greatest hero that ever lived! There was never anything he was not 100 percent correct about, especially concerning my old behavior. Yeah, I am reviled on here now because I chose to stop this crazy hangup about weather. Revile me! It means I am doing a good job! :) :):):) :):):) :) In summer we get 100s and no rain. In winter we get 77 and sun. This is the LIFE! It was 95 today, no clouds at all!! No rain in our forecast for weeks and weeks! No hurricanes either! Normal high is 87! See, we are 8 degrees above normal! Gonna be a nice warm winter and dry as the Gobi Desert!

Sounds miserable. 

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Special Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
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Just now, Windspeed said:

Multiple VHTs rotating around the eyewall. I'd imagine Kirk will be a major hurricane by daybreak. Category four definitely looks attainable before in moves into cooler SSTs. Should be a big ACE producer.

NHC agrees, but take the under on daybreak! Kirk has already arrived as a MH!

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I’ve noticed that the NHC more and more will update milestone increases in strength- upgrade to major or a category upgrade- at non-designated times. In Kirk’s case, there aren’t any watches or warnings, so they could have waited until 11 pm ET to announce the upgrade. 

Has there been a stated policy change?

IMO, these off-time upgrades have been a great positive. For hurricanes that have been approaching land, they’ve been essential to generating breaking news headlines in media. 

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Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk has undergone an impressive period of rapid intensification 
over the past 24 h.  Recent satellite imagery showed a ragged eye, 
with multiple deep bursts of convection rotating in the eyewall.  
Overshooting tops are obscuring the eye now, but it would not be 
surprising if it clears again soon.  As noted in the special 
advisory, the subjective Dvorak satellite estimates have climbed but 
were constrained.  The initial intensity is nudged up to 110 kt for 
this advisory, closest to the T6.0 data-T number from SAB.  The 
hurricane has strengthened 55 kt since 0300 UTC last night, which 
means Kirk lands at a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The hurricane continues to be steered by the subtropical ridge to 
the northwest at an estimated 310/9 kt.  Little has changed in the 
track forecast reasoning.  On Friday night or Saturday, Kirk is 
expected to gradually turn north-northwestward to northward and 
accelerate in the flow between a deep-layer trough and the weakening 
subtropical ridge.  Later in the weekend, Kirk is expected to 
continue accelerating north-northeastward to northeastward.  Few 
changes have been made to the latest official track forecast, which 
lie close to various consensus aids.

Given Kirk's recent rapid intensification, conditions appear 
conducive for further strengthening during the next day or so.  The 
short-term forecast is therefore above all of the guidance now, 
peaking at 130 kt in 24 h.  By Friday, the vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase and gradually weaken Kirk through the remainder 
of the forecast period.  As the hurricane moves more poleward, 
Kirk's tropical-storm-force winds are predicted to grow and send 
large swell westward to the northern Leeward Islands and the Bahamas 
over the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 19.5N  44.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 20.4N  45.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.7N  47.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 23.1N  48.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 24.8N  49.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 27.0N  50.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 30.0N  50.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 36.8N  45.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 43.9N  35.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Major Hurricane Kirk will be moving over increasingly warm SSTs. It should cross over 29+ SSTs for several days, though, as the forecast calls for increasing shear by the weekend, its MPI should come down. Regardless, this is a powerful hurricane and should pack on the ACE while being fun to track without all the prior drama we've had to deal with this season. Barring some sharp hook into the Azores, Kirk should remain no threat to land.

ce070bda9ce5fa4d653afedddd6b3656.gif

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5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Major Hurricane Kirk will be moving over increasingly warm SSTs. It should cross over 29+ SSTs for several days, though, as the forecast calls for increasing shear by the weekend, its MPI should come down. Regardless, this is a powerful hurricane and should pack on the ACE while being fun to track without all the prior drama we've had to deal with this season. Barring some sharp hook into the Azores, Kirk should remain no threat to land.

ce070bda9ce5fa4d653afedddd6b3656.gif

It has the perfect combo of intensity, size, and duration (captured fetch directed at the east coast) to send a swell that will be remarkably powerful. Places like the OBX are already in a precarious situation do to erosion. Highly energetic long period swells (rare on the east coast) can cause lots of erosion and beach washoever. A deep water swell with a period greater then 17 seconds contains KE orders of magnitude higher then a similar size wind wave with a period of less then 7 seconds. 
im not saying this is going to be another disaster by any stretch, just that it maybe deceivingly more impactful then your normal run of the mill cat one moving NE in the open Atlantic. 

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On 10/1/2024 at 8:50 PM, Jebman said:

Much better.

Remember this?

 

Look, I was extremely OCD about weather for 45 years. I finally learned but not before alienating most of my immediate family and nearly everyone in the Woodbridge/Dale City Corridor.

I don't know about you, I don't really know how many people live in the greater Washington DC region but all those folks can't be wrong!

Be very very very very very careful about what you wish for. Climate change is very real and storms WILL be extremely bad. I want NONE of this whatsoever. I am glad I am down here in Austin, Texas. We get sun, 109 weather and more sun. No more snow, hardly any rain ever. No weather to speak of, and all I ever wish for is more of the same: Blue skies, 109 degrees, south winds straight out of the Mexican Plateau and a few puffy cumulus. Maybe, I'll wish some snow on northern Virginia in the winter. I wish for no storms. I have learned my lesson. It took me half a century, too bad my dad never lived to see the day I see now he was 100 billion percent correct. My late Dad was the greatest hero that ever lived! There was never anything he was not 100 percent correct about, especially concerning my old behavior. Yeah, I am reviled on here now because I chose to stop this crazy hangup about weather. Revile me! It means I am doing a good job! :) :):):) :):):) :) In summer we get 100s and no rain. In winter we get 77 and sun. This is the LIFE! It was 95 today, no clouds at all!! No rain in our forecast for weeks and weeks! No hurricanes either! Normal high is 87! See, we are 8 degrees above normal! Gonna be a nice warm winter and dry as the Gobi Desert!

 Bro you need to chill out lol 

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Models actually show Kirk impacting land big time. I'm not really familiar with northern European storm systems... what would this scenario actually look like for the UK/Ireland? Would they experience hurricane conditions and storm surge?
Screenshot_20241003_105546_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6106acc9f1f9d083d26db362611b1258.jpg
Rainy and windy. Gale warnings and definitely TS force gusts, perhaps some hurricane force gusts, but Helene would be far enough along in its post transition to have a spread out gradient by that point. Still, it is a hefty low pressure and windy for certain, but those folks aren't strangers to strong mid-latitudinal cyclones.
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I expected MDR SSTs to produce a Cat 4/5 CV hurricane this season, just not in October. Crazy what Atlantic TCs can do when atmospheric conditions switch to favorable. I mean, obviously, we've seen numerous powerful CV majors over the years during peak September. It's just been a weird season. Beryl rolls off and explodes in late June, followed by three months of late intensfiers near land; then Atlantic environmental conditions finally improve, and the MDR looks like September 3rd, not October 3rd.

86fe73665960148a26265a3a12af4b9b.gif

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On 10/1/2024 at 9:50 PM, Jebman said:

Much better.

Remember this?

 

Look, I was extremely OCD about weather for 45 years. I finally learned but not before alienating most of my immediate family and nearly everyone in the Woodbridge/Dale City Corridor.

I don't know about you, I don't really know how many people live in the greater Washington DC region but all those folks can't be wrong!

Be very very very very very careful about what you wish for. Climate change is very real and storms WILL be extremely bad. I want NONE of this whatsoever. I am glad I am down here in Austin, Texas. We get sun, 109 weather and more sun. No more snow, hardly any rain ever. No weather to speak of, and all I ever wish for is more of the same: Blue skies, 109 degrees, south winds straight out of the Mexican Plateau and a few puffy cumulus. Maybe, I'll wish some snow on northern Virginia in the winter. I wish for no storms. I have learned my lesson. It took me half a century, too bad my dad never lived to see the day I see now he was 100 billion percent correct. My late Dad was the greatest hero that ever lived! There was never anything he was not 100 percent correct about, especially concerning my old behavior. Yeah, I am reviled on here now because I chose to stop this crazy hangup about weather. Revile me! It means I am doing a good job! :) :):):) :):):) :) In summer we get 100s and no rain. In winter we get 77 and sun. This is the LIFE! It was 95 today, no clouds at all!! No rain in our forecast for weeks and weeks! No hurricanes either! Normal high is 87! See, we are 8 degrees above normal! Gonna be a nice warm winter and dry as the Gobi Desert!

Sounds miserable. 

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