Potential POCKETS 5+, at most MAX 12" rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5". Already at 12z/Wed "tiny" pockets 5-7" I195 NNJ/NYC area

[winterwx21]

Euro ends the rain Friday night now too like the CMC. Saturday looking like a dry day now. 

[Rtd208]

[Rtd208]

Euro op total QPF thru 120 hours.

 

[jm1220]

New round of convection along the LIE. 

[Rtd208]

The radar is pretty much exploding now. Alot of developing storms.

[Roger Smith]

I would say 3-6 in rains likely later today in a corridor from Allentown PA to about Raritan Bay, 2-4 in would be a general result in metro NYC and LI, CT. Later in week only looks to be 1-2 in potential but local max of 3" possible. 

[jm1220]

Will probably need a flood warning soon for that area of central Nassau and Suffolk along the LIE-training storms again along this sea breeze/frontal boundary. 

[Rtd208]

Latest HRRR

[Rjay]

Pouring again 

[MJO812]

Ukie

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

holy hell

[Cfa]

Dumping rain and deep thunder in Bohemia.

[MJO812]

It's about to pour.  Getting really dark here.

[bluewave]

Picked up a quick .41 here in 20 min with the heavy downpour.

[nycwinter]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's about to pour.  Getting really dark here.

enjoying your vacation week at home?

[Gravity Wave]

If anything things are getting started faster than expected compared to the HRRR.

[MANDA]

Some places in this forum are going to have 8 day totals (Saturday to Saturday) of 7"+.

I'm at 1.62" as of now and that is a lower end total compared to some.

[Rtd208]

[jm1220]

A few places around Dix Hills and Holbrook have 2” already. Here-2 drops and I can walk to where it’s pouring. Occasional thunder. 

[Roger Smith]

Flood flooding is the worst kind. (guess they meant stream flooding?)

[bluewave]

Impressive rates at ISP with 1.03” in only the last 15 minutes.

 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp

[RedSky]

8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Flood flooding is the worst kind. (guess they meant stream flooding?)

I have seen flood flooding before it's like scuba gear bad

 

[Rtd208]

Right now the bulk of the storms are from the Driscoll Bridge on south in NJ. I expect that to change.

[psv88]

 Crazy flooding along the northern state parkway in Melville. Flash flood warning warranted 

[Cfa]

Close call CTG strike in the parking lot, I’m inside so I didn’t see it but I felt the impact of it and the thunder. Power flickering.

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Right now the bulk of the storms are from the Driscoll Bridge on south in NJ. I expect that to change.

 

Looks like the WRF-ARW and the RDPS were closest to the 18-20Z evolution overall.   I think 22-01Z is the window for most of the area north of that, the steering flow veers more W to SW.  

[Rtd208]

12z ensembles total mean QPF thru 120 hours.

[winterwx21]

Storms missing me just to the south. I can hear the thunder. 

[psv88]

Is that it? 0.02 at home, over 2 inches 2 miles away. 

[Cfa]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Is that it? 0.02 at home, over 2 inches 2 miles away. 

0.00” at home and at least 2-3” here near ISP.