SnowGoose69 Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 3k has storms but severe looks north More resembles the WRF-ARW2 now which by far has been closest to what is happening on timing and formation of cells 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 Radar looks good southeast of us Mesoscale Discussion 1653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into Northern Maryland...New Jersey...and far Southern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161835Z - 162030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this afternoon for storms capable of 60-70 MPH wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends and short-term WoFS guidance suggests that thunderstorm activity should increase over Central and Eastern Pennsylvania this afternoon, bringing a threat primarily for damaging straight-line winds. These storms are expected to progress eastward into New Jersey and far southern New York. Surface observations show a hot, dry boundary-layer in place over the highlight area, with surface temperatures in the upper 90s F to low 100s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s F to low 70s F. These conditions have resulted in MLLCL heights of around 2-3 km and low-level lapse rates that are dry adiabatic beneath the LCL. Additionally, the better deep-layer wind shear supportive of organized convection is confined to northern and central PA, suggesting that the primary threat is for damaging winds from disorganized to weakly-organized multi-cell clusters. Weather watch issuance may be needed later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 100 Boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 NWS Upton issued severe thunderstorm watch till 2200. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 95 with a strong southerly breeze again. Breeze makes it somewhat tolerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 22 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks like it will make it to 12 years very few areas hit 100 down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 Temp still sitting at 100 here. Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like it will make it to 12 years very few areas hit 100 down there Looks like the hotter temps were just S of PHL. I see DC and Baltimore are 103 & some parts of NJ hit 100 as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 93.5 in Muttontown & 93.4 in Syosset for the high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 Just about all the Davis stations nearby to me are reading 97-99°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 87 now with winds out of the south. Heat index still in the 100’s. High was 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 Waiting on this quick hitter rolling in from the west. If this breaks right I’ll pick up about 0.25”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 EWR probably hit 100, as soon as winds shifted from 160-220 they warmed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 It did make it to 100 here today. Now down to 97. I see a few stations in north-central NJ made it to 101 or 102. Very impressive. Watching those storms in PA. Doesn't look like a big widespread event, but I'm hoping those storms heading towards Hunterdon County will make it our area. Radar looks pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 This is the storm headed towards Bethlehem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 And just like that the warnings start. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 Popping off east of NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 Looks like 99° will do it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 I actually have a higher heat index than Newark with the much higher dew points here. New Haven SUNNY 90 78 68 S9 29.73F HX 104 Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY 99 67 35 S26G38 29.70F HX 103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 No rain however the outflow dropped our temperature by 8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 98 here west wind pushed EWR to 99 (maybe inter hour 101) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: EWR probably hit 100, as soon as winds shifted from 160-220 they warmed up Ha-ha-ha. I put one of my french doors outside to dry after I pre-sanded and cleaned it. I am using one week vacation. The wind blew it down to the ground. Miraculously, the windows didn't crack, but now there are some pretty deep gouges. Didn't tell my wife yet. Within less than an hour, the winds really cranked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 16, 2024 Author Share Posted July 16, 2024 Warning out for Hunterdon and somerset. Up to 70 mph and hail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 16, 2024 Author Share Posted July 16, 2024 Probably going to miss to my north but get @winterwx21if it holds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Probably going to miss to my north but get @winterwx21if it holds We'll see, but southern flank looks to be strengthening a bit so we may get a good hit here too. Probably will be brief, but very gusty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 16, 2024 Author Share Posted July 16, 2024 2 minutes ago, mgerb said: We'll see, but southern flank looks to be strengthening a bit so we may get a good hit here too. Probably will be brief, but very gusty. Yeah I see what you're saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 Large hail signature on that purple cell on radar, look out lower hudson valley. Could also go tornadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 nadda here how fitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 16, 2024 Share Posted July 16, 2024 61 mph gust at Pittstown (Hunterdon County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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