July 2024

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Another drencher here with vivid thunder and lightning.

Same here. Picked up .50 in 15 minutes. The atmosphere was saturated with 75° dew points and 2.00” PWATS. It’s one of the few times I had fog and light drizzle transition to such a heavy downpour in July.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same here. Picked up .50 in 15 minutes. The atmosphere was saturated with 75° dew points and 2.00” PWATS. It’s one of the few times I had fog and light drizzle transition to such a heavy downpour in July.

Models doing a poor job forecasting the convection each day. Yesterday was supposed to be dry and this morning 

[TWCCraig]

Not much since June 27th

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models doing a poor job forecasting the convection each day. Yesterday was supposed to be dry and this morning 

FWIW they have little to nothing rest of today....

[psv88]

0.25” over the last 2 days. 0.13” this morning. Not enough to water the garden but enough to clean the cars off I guess 

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

FWIW they have little to nothing rest of today....

Looks like that was it, welcome half inch this morning

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

FWIW they have little to nothing rest of today....

We shall see, yesterday was supposed to have nothing either until we got closer

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 92 here. 
Picked up 0.72” of rain for the day yesterday. 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models doing a poor job forecasting the convection each day. Yesterday was supposed to be dry and this morning 

The SPC HREF had the right idea but its heavy rain axis was a little too far NW. I did much better here. But the exact placement is always a toss up. 

[Picard]

0.65" overnight - brief but torrential rains with thunder and lightening.   

[SACRUS]

 

 

[bluewave]

You can see what an outlier that one completely dry weekend was back in mid-June. 
 

Newark 

Jul 6-7……….0.08…so far with much heavier totals in other spots

Jun 29-30….0.39

Jun 22-23…..0.04

Jun 15-16……0.0

Jun 8-9……….T

Jun 1-2……….T

May 25-25…..T

May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

[Rtd208]

Another brutal day out there. 
Current temp 79/DP 76/RH 90%

[winterwarlock]

alot of clouds thus far imby, it looks foggy and cloudy down the jersey shore. I suppose  sun starts to break out around 11-12

[Stormlover74]

HI of 110 incoming this afternoon

[bluewave]

77° dew point here now after .82 of rain. My sunglasses actually fogged up going outside now that the sun is out. The area has a shot at one of the highest July average dew points for the whole month. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=SMQ&season=jul&varname=dwpf&agg=mean&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

[MANDA]

13 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Well the good news is I found where the water is coming into my basement. The bad news is water is coming into my basement. Huge storm here dropped a ton of water in just twenty minutes. How do we all feel about Dryloc on a basement cinder block wall? Good idea or must this be tackled outside via digging? It is a small seepage. 

Dryloc worked great for some small seepage areas in my last house.  I did first use dryloc cement on the block around and over where the water was coming in.  Then used the paint over that.  I did really press the cement into the block and gave it like 3 applications.  Let it dry well then use paint.  Worked well, never had seepage again.  Worth a try before you start digging outside.

[Allsnow]

Soupy 

[dmillz25]

79/74 here

[MANDA]

Some torrential downpours at times last night and early this morning.  The one this morning had loud thunder and some bright lightning flashes.  Rain was torrential but was short lived.  Two day total so far = .75".  Just enough but not too much.  Perfect!  Level 10 on the swampy scale out there this morning.

[Picard]

Honest Question:
Does any reputable source track average dewpoints over time?  It would be interesting to see if there is a correlation toward higher dewpoints and recent changes to our climate.
 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Picard said:

Honest Question:
Does any reputable source track average dewpoints over time?  It would be interesting to see if there is a correlation toward higher dewpoints and recent changes to our climate.
 

Dew points have been steadily rising as a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=summer&varname=dwpf&agg=mean&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

.27 this morning 

Nothing here. Missed me again. 

It has been feast or famine in the rainfall department for the Tri-State in recent weeks. Some areas have done much better in recent weeks while others have gotten very little. We'll see if we can get more widespread heavy rains late next week from Beryl's remnants. 

Tomorrow and Monday we're going to see a slight humidity drop. Dew points will be going down to the low-mid 60s. Probably going to be dry those days. Hopefully a decent soaking coming for late Tuesday. 

[MJO812]

It's so disgusting outside 

[Stormlover74]

17 hours ago, MANDA said:

Was so nasty humid / muggy out today.

Should have been a Swamp Ass Advisory in effect.

We're way past advisory level

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We shall see, yesterday was supposed to have nothing either until we got closer

And I see the latest models do have a few pop ups for this afternoon. Probably will be a few areas that get lucky. 

[Rtd208]

It looks like the first storms of the afternoon are trying to develop over western and northwest NJ. 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And I see the latest models do have a few pop ups for this afternoon. Probably will be a few areas that get lucky. 

Yup, showers developing in western jersey. I wouldn’t bet on staying dry with this type of airmass 

[hudsonvalley21]

Nice AFD from Upton,

X

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday
afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and
lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds
from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week
with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This
frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***Key Points***

1.) Heat Advisories remains in effect across NE NJ, NYC, N
Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index
values could reach up to 105F for southern portions of NE NJ.
All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices
peak between 98-100F.

2.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms re-develop
this afternoon & evening. Chances look better for western
locations.

A prefrontal surface trough is expected to linger just west of
the Hudson River this afternoon before a weak cold front
approaches from the west and slowly passes and stalls tonight.
This occurs in tandem with an upper-level trough to our north
which weakens through tonight.

First round of showers and thunderstorms are moving out east
late this morning. CAPEs recuperate this afternoon, especially
INVOF NYC metro and areas north and west with partly sunny
conditions and a moist boundary layer. SBCAPES of 1500-2500
J/kg anticipated for these areas. With the trough in place and
subtle shortwave energy providing some mechanical lift, iso-sct
showers and thunderstorms anticipated for approx the western
half of the forecast area mid afternoon into early evening. Bulk
shear in combination with CAPE is enough for at least some
consideration of severe wind gust potential in thunderstorms,
mainly NW of NYC where conditions will be slightly more
favorable. Freezing/wet-bulb zero heights are rather high, so
while hail will be possible given CAPE and shear aloft, chances
are it won`t reach severe thresholds. After about 9 or 10pm,
most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should be cleared
out of the area with a front stalling across the area. Patchy
fog may occur with persistent cloud cover across eastern areas,
but will mainly depend on where the weak front stalls. Overnight
lows will drop into the low/mid-70s.

Flash flooding threat remains lows this afternoon into evening.
PWATs have lowered to around 1.75" in the area where showers and
storms are more likely to occur, and the flow aloft is strong
enough to prevent very slow-moving cells. Should training occur,
there could be a low threat of flash flooding, but looking at
mainly minor urban/poor drainage flooding potential.

Dewpoints generally in the mid 70s this afternoon with actual
highs in the upper-80s to low-90s in the NYC metro and areas N/W
of NYC. The rest of S CT and LI see highs in the mid/low-80s
with far eastern areas in the upper-70s for afternoon highs.
Heat Advisories remain posted across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co,
Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could
reach up to 105F in spots for the urban corridor of NE NJ. All
other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak
between 95-100F. Some guidance appears to veer winds from S to
SW late in the day, advecting in drier low-level air. Should
this occur earlier than expected, heat advisory criteria may be
more on the marginal side for some areas outside of NE NJ, but
for now, expecting a later arrival of this drier air.

[Picard]

Several stations in NJ are reaching 80+ dewpoints, with HIs already topping 105.