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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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3 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Just curious, models were showing 90’s late this week into the weekend and have since backed off, might we see the same name next week? Instead 95-100 do we see 88-93 type heat? I don’t trust the models in the long range until they show some sort of consistency. 

Yeah ..wise precautions

You're right about the 80s tomorrow and Friday being a correction down from 90, going back to the modeling a week or so ago ... but, the defining difference between that vs next week is scale - and more precisely, how 'size' in the atmosphere matters to the physical processing in the models. 

We'll call them 'objects' for now.  Small objects are often hidden by the noise amid all the ensemble members that are a part of ensemble means. They are also hidden by the noise of spontaneously emerging factorization in the individual ensemble members ( which includes the operational versions -), themselves.  But, as the object in question nears ... the time-dependent materialization of those noisy factors reduce; thus, exposes the real features. 

By virtue of having more size, bigger objects are less "hidden" as said time-dependent noise emergence that accumulate at longer ranges are less sufficiently large enough to completely conceal their presence.  This is why it has been observed that very big events in history tended to be 'seen' if not suggested by the guidance envelope very early - Sandy for example was suggested at 2 weeks, and started actually getting modeled at D10!  The so dubbed Super Storm in March 1993 was also pretty glaringly suggested beyond a week out in time.

The warming on Thursday and Friday was of the small object size.  

The warming aspects next week are coming from a massive R-wave reconstruction that starts out over the western mid latitude Pacific Basin and transmits the signal all the way around the hemisphere to influence the pattern orientation over the mid latitudes of N. America.   

So if you're following this ... a light may go on that next week had more confidence, at least in principle of occurrence, than tomorrow and Friday.  Which is really just warm sector ahead of a standard mid latitude S/W progression through the field, owing to being a 'smaller object'.  A week ago, a small warm intrusion ahead of the much larger phenomenon was probably seamlessly included in the latter - if perhaps in error.

This being said ... there still a lot of wiggle room as to how hot it gets at the thermometers. Wrongly timed MCS debris and whatever nuances can hold temps down from potential, when the pattern at large can support more.  So that takes some confidence back...  Confidence is high for a pattern that has a high ceiling; the daily realization of that is naturally going to be less at this range.

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The WAR is starting to assert itself in the LR.

I don't think I've seen heat quite this pervasive in terms of areal expanse, at these latitudes, in modeling - whether it happens this way or not, that's sort of amazement in and of itself. This is pan-dimensionally GW/OV/NE involving ...

image.thumb.png.292fc49922b1c486186d8052f7463b0d.png

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crazy .. the Euro if anything is cool in the 2-meter temp at that range. 

 there's probably a few reasons why it's hard to get passed 101 around here;  the return rate is therefore pretty long.   I think July 2010 might be the last time we saw routine 102's around the area -but Brian might know.  

we're doing this right on the solstice - fuggin beautiful man.  as others have noted, the 12z guidance compendium are also extending this into a lengthy at bat.

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't think I've seen heat quite this pervasive in terms of areal expanse, at these latitudes, in modeling - whether it happens this way or not, that's sort of amazement in and of itself. This is pan-dimensionally GW/OV/NE involving ...

image.thumb.png.292fc49922b1c486186d8052f7463b0d.png

It's happening, Tip. Buckle in.

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27 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's happening, Tip. Buckle in.

I'm actually getting a little bit concerned that this may be our turn with the dreaded synergistic heat wave phenomenon, which has been identified as a specific event type, showing up in attribution studies, that transcends the seasonal heat wave phenotype. 

The problem with these types of events ... the results exceed the technology's ability to appropriately project the scale and magnitude of them.  That's the synergistic aspect ... in that emergence properties of the heat wave synoptics then 2ndarily interact/feedback to become 'more than than the sum of the parts'.  

Not suggesting Pacific NW 2021 June is walking through the door. We're not capable of 112 F at Logan given to physical limitations... but, what they lacked up there, we won't: access to DP.  Anyway, as is this is an usually looking set up - certainly hinted to be that way.

One aspect that's holding me down from hoisting that flag is that I'm not seeing a very convincing SW heat release/expulsion ejecting down stream.  Some of the original guidance ideas regarding this thing did signal that a week ago, but as of now...it's mostly just a whopper synoptic scaffolding.  But this latter stuff was telecon flagged 2 weeks ago, by the way ...and it's been a class room in synptic Met watching the ensembles emerge the spatial metrics in concert.   When we do that in the winter, we tend to produce massive winter events. 

 

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21 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wish we could get 60 days in a row over 90

I’m not sure that’ll ever be possible around here…

In other news, our friends in Atlantic Canada should keep an eye on the potential (post)tropical strike the Euro has this weekend. :lol: 

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not sure that’ll ever be possible around here…

In other news, our friends in Atlantic Canada should keep an eye on the potential (post)tropical strike the Euro has this weekend. :lol: 

Yeah,  I realize that.  :lol:   Canada has been a hotbed for tropical/PT cyclones recently, wouldn't bet against it.  Though it's extremely early...not sure their historical data for earliest strikes but it's probably easily researched.

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28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Eh. Still early. I’m in the hot camp, but our usual dewy heat. I have so many saved maps of even more exotic heat than this over the last 5 years and none have come to fruition.

 

eps-fast_z500a_us_fh168_trend (1).gif

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Eh. Still early. I’m in the hot camp, but our usual dewy heat. I have so many saved maps of even more exotic heat than this over the last 5 years and none have come to fruition.

I'd like to see a more robust 850 mb expulsion out of the deep S/W before going too crazy. 

That said... the non hydrostatic layout/evolution through that period is already on par with historic events - that's got me a little spooked. This could deliver with shorter warning ... pushing a seasonal expectation for heat into that synergistic territory.   It would catch civility off-guard, particularly in that .. I don't honestly believe that phenotype of heat explosion has happened here since the attribution science ( recent evolution out of necessity - ) codified them as a particular interest area.  It's not tested or knowable to well over the 90th percentile population density, what over 106 would be like.  

We built a similar scaffold in the models in 2018 prior to the July 4 heat -that also avoided the SW/Sonoran inject. Contrasting, the July 2010 one day big heat event was not appreciably soaring non -hydrostats but the 850 layer was a Sonoran released pass through and it was 104.  Are we ever going to colocate these metrics?   The problem with synergistic heat is that the models will inherently (likely) fail to project them, because they are based on the super position of emergent properties.  I have pretty strong conceptualization in mind that at least for us, big time stratospheric heights super-imposed by 25C Sonoran dragon fart might be a good place to start.  

To equate the standard deviation 2-meter T would have to be 114 at D.C. and 110 at Boston to be like London's 108 last year. 

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8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Downstairs installation complete as we prep for big heat. 

From BOX's AFD "If you haven`t already done so, the weekend would be a good time as any to put in any window air-conditioning units as our weather pattern changes toward very warm and humid weather into next week." 

  I think the Rev may have wrote it? Lol

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5 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

From BOX's AFD "If you haven`t already done so, the weekend would be a good time as any to put in any window air-conditioning units as our weather pattern changes toward very warm and humid weather into next week." 

  I think the Rev may have wrote it? Lol

Steins and Steins and Steins … 

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1801013948034023667?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

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