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41 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see a few cells have popped up now to the SW that will be heading into Mercer County shortly, so we might see some action in a little while.

I'm up to .27" for the day so far, which includes a little downpour we had early in the morning. 

Just a quick downpour from that cell. No thunder 

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Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. The temperature will rise into the lower 80s. A few warmer spots could top out in the middle 80s. Cooler air will begin to arrive on Wednesday with the temperature reaching the upper 70s. Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +9.44 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.381 today.

On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.671 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal).

 

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28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. The temperature will rise into the lower 80s. A few warmer spots could top out in the middle 80s. Cooler air will begin to arrive on Wednesday with the temperature reaching the upper 70s. Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +9.44 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.381 today.

On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.671 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal).

 

Amazing how the sensitivity analysis fluctuated for the month of May.  Started out near 1 above, fell to almost normal and now we'll finish the month solidly above against the warmest normals we ever had.    When will we see the next below normal month?

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Amazing how the sensitivity analysis fluctuated for the month of May.  Started out near 1 above, fell to almost normal and now we'll finish the month solidly above against the warmest normals we ever had.    When will we see the next below normal month?

And the biggest driver had to be high minimums thanks to all the cloudy days. 

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6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I doubt the 2nd rd is stronger than the first batch. We didn’t have much sun today 

 

Flash flooding will be the bigger risk 

Looks like you are correct...

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2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Amazing how the sensitivity analysis fluctuated for the month of May.  Started out near 1 above, fell to almost normal and now we'll finish the month solidly above against the warmest normals we ever had.    When will we see the next below normal month?

Probably not until at least late fall. But that’s not guaranteed.

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6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Tornado reported OTG as of 20 minutes ago to the west of Tamaqua.  The storm producing this is west of Lehighton and Jim Thorpe.  This is in eastern PA.  No recent updates if anything is still OTG.

We need a radar in Allentown :(

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3 hours ago, MANDA said:

Amazing how the sensitivity analysis fluctuated for the month of May.  Started out near 1 above, fell to almost normal and now we'll finish the month solidly above against the warmest normals we ever had.    When will we see the next below normal month?

Too much moisture in air. Cant cool down at night. Kinda holds you in a constant sticky airmass thru summer. There is a reason Florida rarely goes above 97/98 or below 70. 

You now have that airmass almost year round in NYC. It plays out as 40s/50s and dreary from Nov thru April and a miserable sticky summer from May thru the end of September.

That is why your AC or Heat are on almost year round back to back.

Very sad state of affairs and one not predicted for all the Warming talk 30 years ago. 

 

MOISTURE rules the day

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