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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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The rain began at 9:25 a.m. and quickly became heavy. It's truly amazing how much rain we've had over the past year. It certainly helped the flowers blossom spectacularly but it also helped the Mosquito population thrive, which is not pleasant due to my proximity to the Farmington River. 

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10 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

The rain began at 9:25 a.m. and quickly became heavy. It's truly amazing how much rain we've had over the past year. It certainly helped the flowers blossom spectacularly but it also helped the Mosquito population thrive, which is not pleasant due to my proximity to the Farmington River. 

Not to mention the insane growth of the grass - usually can get away with not mowing the lawn until the first week of June, but not this year.

 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Page 50 on May 20

He said caution Sunday and Monday. Said wouldn't be surprised if Monday is the worse but watch the progression of the warm front Sunday (how close it gets). 

That's a damn good call one week out. 

Some beer. 
 

in all honesty I was also pulling his chain, but the models with the warm front south sort of gave me pause. 

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some beer. 
 

in all honesty I was also pulling his chain, but the models with the warm front south sort of gave me pause. 

Seems like there are only two types of definitions for warm season days… absolute dumpster fire terrible cold/wet weather, and if it doesn’t fit that, then it’s filed under a glorious perfect summer day.

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On 5/25/2024 at 6:36 PM, mreaves said:

Took a ride over to Northern NH today and had breakfast at Polly’s Pancake Parlor in Franconia. Stunning day and views. 

IMG_4266.jpeg

I was at Polly's once--LOVED it!  I look forward to getting back up that way and hitting it again.

Meanwhile, I'm glad I was able to be at Pit2 yesterday for the sun and warmth.  Rain and misty today with a progged high of 55.  Not a good one to be out on the boat.

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Fwiw - the warm boundary punch back across this end of Rt 2 around 1/2 hr ago.  We were 61 at 2pm and about 63 at 3:30 when I hit the gym.  I walked out of the gym 20 minutes ago and it was noticeably changed.   It's now 67 but 70 F is just S and we presently rising. The wind switched S and the cloud deck is higher with warm type nimbus.   It was slate gray before

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw - the warm boundary punch back across this end of Rt 2 around 1/2 hr ago.  We were 61 at 2pm and about 63 at 3:30 when I hit the gym.  I walked out of the gym 20 minutes ago and it was noticeably changed.   It's now 67 but 70 F is just S and we presently rising. The wind switched S and the cloud deck is higher with warm type nimbus.   It was slate gray before

Yep. Sun just poked out here for a few seconds on the Gardner/Westminster line. 

Off to the races! Go go go gooooo!!

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Finally some rain moving in. All of these +1 days have left me Steiny. 

Doesn't seem like we're getting out the later evening without an inch drink ...give or take. 

 

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Great summer forecast from Don on the NYC forum.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. The temperature will rise into the lower 80s. A few warmer spots could top out in the middle 80s. Cooler air will begin to arrive on Wednesday with the temperature reaching the upper 70s. Thursday and Friday will see highs mainly in the lower 70s.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +9.44 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.381 today.

On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.671 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.3° (2.1° above normal).

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50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Doesn't seem like we're getting out the later evening without an inch drink ...give or take. 

 

Yeah we’ll see. Kinda “cold” sectored here with 60° right now. 

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